Tuesday, March 17, 2009

The $70 trillion question

What do you get when you have a $5 trillion spending agenda and a $65 trillion entitlement deficit?

The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.

Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.

Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.

Lee

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