For months I have been trying to build a metaphysic 14o characters at a time.
How do we synthesize Platonic Forms, Quantum Science, Fractal Geometry, Complex Emergence, Actuarial Science, String Theory, Healthcare Reform, Econometrics, CAPM, Hilbert Space and Schrodinger Waves 140 characters at a time?
Go to twitter.com, philosophize and see.
Showing posts with label SFI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SFI. Show all posts
Friday, August 28, 2009
Monday, March 23, 2009
Matt Taibbi
It's refreshing when a reporter "gets it". In the current Rolling Stone, Taibbi portays the global financial crisis in the context of the AIG mess. He patiently dissects the complexities in an entertaining and educational way.
" A CDO (collateralized-debt obligation) is like a box full of diced-up assets...What the inventors of the CDO did is to divide up the box into groups...To get AAA ratings, the CDO's relied...on crazy mathematical formulas...
As banks and other investors of all kinds took on more and more in CDO's...they needed some way to hedge their massive bets..."
That's where AIG enters. They began selling Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) which insured the value of the CDO's. For a small premium relative to the potential risk, the CDS guarantees the insured asset.
The type of insured asset which became most prominent in the early 2000's was the mortgage. AIG guaranteed mortgages through their CDS's.
Because this activity had been essentially unregulated, AIG could sell an almost unlimited number of CDS's without any financial backup. As a result they exposed themselves to losses beyond the scope of their massive balance sheet.
Back to the mathematical models, it wan't supposed to happen. According to the models, CDO's and CDS's couldn't default at the rates they ultimately did. The models didn't take account of non-historical patterns, like a collapse of the U S housing market.
OOPS.
As Taibbi reports, the rest is history. AIG's debt rating fell requiring them to cough up assets as collateral at an alarming rate. Now the government is in the derivative business in an attempt to undo the mess.
Can we do it?
Yes we can.
Lee
" A CDO (collateralized-debt obligation) is like a box full of diced-up assets...What the inventors of the CDO did is to divide up the box into groups...To get AAA ratings, the CDO's relied...on crazy mathematical formulas...
As banks and other investors of all kinds took on more and more in CDO's...they needed some way to hedge their massive bets..."
That's where AIG enters. They began selling Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) which insured the value of the CDO's. For a small premium relative to the potential risk, the CDS guarantees the insured asset.
The type of insured asset which became most prominent in the early 2000's was the mortgage. AIG guaranteed mortgages through their CDS's.
Because this activity had been essentially unregulated, AIG could sell an almost unlimited number of CDS's without any financial backup. As a result they exposed themselves to losses beyond the scope of their massive balance sheet.
Back to the mathematical models, it wan't supposed to happen. According to the models, CDO's and CDS's couldn't default at the rates they ultimately did. The models didn't take account of non-historical patterns, like a collapse of the U S housing market.
OOPS.
As Taibbi reports, the rest is history. AIG's debt rating fell requiring them to cough up assets as collateral at an alarming rate. Now the government is in the derivative business in an attempt to undo the mess.
Can we do it?
Yes we can.
Lee
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
The $70 trillion question
What do you get when you have a $5 trillion spending agenda and a $65 trillion entitlement deficit?
The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.
Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.
Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.
Lee
The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.
Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.
Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.
Lee
Monday, February 9, 2009
The Secret of Being
Every once in awhile a book will come along which alters the course of history. This is one of those times.
Still untitled, the book is written. Metaphors like harmonius universe, cosmic song, unfinished symphony, paradigm shift, and web of reality speak to its message.
From Plato's Forms though Smith's Invisible Hand, from Bacon's Idols through Rousseau's General Will, all philosophical ideas of history flow into a vessel which empties into recently uncovered truths.
Idealism, Rationalism, Empiricism, Materialism, Mysticism, QCD, QED, QFT, particles, fields, waves, love, truth, beauty, harmony, eightfold way, golden rule, dfa, erm, all are elements of the new vision.
One dimension of the new paradigm is that there is a mathematical edifice which begins at the subatomic level, travels through the classical level, and emerges at the complex level. A mathematical structure may be conceived which will tie all of reality into a grand unified theory.
Another dimension is that all philosophical structures from the Platonic to the Hegelian, from the Kantian through the Sartrean, are a foundation for a metaphorical vision of the reality being uncovered at the subatomic level.
The fuzziness within the atom which is at the core of all being reflects the gaps in understanding which historical thinkers were trying to fill.
A third dimension of the new paradigm is that public policy decisions, including those involving the current stimulus/bailout proposals, can be informed by the deep thinking which is going on in the universities and labs around the world.
The interconnected, convoluted, demographic, heterogeneous, uncertain and temporal nature of the global economy calls for models which not only incorporate traditional econometric structures, but those of compexity science, computer science, and actuarial science as well.
The path to justice is paved with knowledge, and the knowledge needed to transform the economy in a successful and sustainable way can be brought to bear if there is the will.
Yes we can.
Lee
Still untitled, the book is written. Metaphors like harmonius universe, cosmic song, unfinished symphony, paradigm shift, and web of reality speak to its message.
From Plato's Forms though Smith's Invisible Hand, from Bacon's Idols through Rousseau's General Will, all philosophical ideas of history flow into a vessel which empties into recently uncovered truths.
Idealism, Rationalism, Empiricism, Materialism, Mysticism, QCD, QED, QFT, particles, fields, waves, love, truth, beauty, harmony, eightfold way, golden rule, dfa, erm, all are elements of the new vision.
One dimension of the new paradigm is that there is a mathematical edifice which begins at the subatomic level, travels through the classical level, and emerges at the complex level. A mathematical structure may be conceived which will tie all of reality into a grand unified theory.
Another dimension is that all philosophical structures from the Platonic to the Hegelian, from the Kantian through the Sartrean, are a foundation for a metaphorical vision of the reality being uncovered at the subatomic level.
The fuzziness within the atom which is at the core of all being reflects the gaps in understanding which historical thinkers were trying to fill.
A third dimension of the new paradigm is that public policy decisions, including those involving the current stimulus/bailout proposals, can be informed by the deep thinking which is going on in the universities and labs around the world.
The interconnected, convoluted, demographic, heterogeneous, uncertain and temporal nature of the global economy calls for models which not only incorporate traditional econometric structures, but those of compexity science, computer science, and actuarial science as well.
The path to justice is paved with knowledge, and the knowledge needed to transform the economy in a successful and sustainable way can be brought to bear if there is the will.
Yes we can.
Lee
Friday, February 6, 2009
Obama's Economic Advisory Board
Today the President took the first step in de-Washingtoning the economic renewal process. He has a great inside team and now has a Board from outside the "echo chamber" to give more perspective.
What is still lacking, unfortunately, is an appropriate analytical framework by which to monitor the process.
All the ideas in the world will not bring about a transitioned economy without a realistic analytical structure by which to guide decisions, and technicians to develop and maintain the model.
That is the missing piece of the puzzle.
As we have discussed in earlier blogs, by ignoring advances in actuarial science, complexity science, data mining and computer processing, existing models make themselve useless in the world of black swans, cascades, power laws and multi-fractals and which we now face.
No amount of fidgeting will make the models work right. Only a concerted effort to integrate the innovations will succeed.
Model output is only useful if actuarially sound, interaction friendly, data robust, and computer scrubbed.
Let us join the team with our new analytics and help transform the economy successfully.
Lee
What is still lacking, unfortunately, is an appropriate analytical framework by which to monitor the process.
All the ideas in the world will not bring about a transitioned economy without a realistic analytical structure by which to guide decisions, and technicians to develop and maintain the model.
That is the missing piece of the puzzle.
As we have discussed in earlier blogs, by ignoring advances in actuarial science, complexity science, data mining and computer processing, existing models make themselve useless in the world of black swans, cascades, power laws and multi-fractals and which we now face.
No amount of fidgeting will make the models work right. Only a concerted effort to integrate the innovations will succeed.
Model output is only useful if actuarially sound, interaction friendly, data robust, and computer scrubbed.
Let us join the team with our new analytics and help transform the economy successfully.
Lee
Harmonious Bibliography
Any book owes a large debt to all books which preceded it.
In my case, Harmonious Universe emerged from my immersion in:
Affluent Society by Galbraith
Silent Spring by Carson
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Pirsig
Lila by Pirsig
The Story of Philosophy by Will Durant
The Dancing Wu-Li Masters by Zukav
The Tao of Physics by Capra
The Art of Mathematics by King
Chaos by Gleick
Complexity by Waldrop
Fire in the Mind by Johnson
Quantum Self by Zohar
Superforce by Davis
The Elegant Universe by Greene
How to Know God by Chopra
Shakespeare and the Common Understanding by Rabkin
Quantum Theory by Bohm
A Mathematical Bridge by Hewson
Tao of Chaos by Walter
Consilience by Wilson
Art & Physics by Shlain
Hyperspace by Kaku
The Self-Aware Universe by Goswami
The Philosophy of Physics by Torretti
The Quark and the Jaguar by Gell-Mann
At Home in the Universe by Kaufmann
Would be Worlds by Casti
Universals by Armstrong
The Theatre of the Absurd by Esslin
Free to Choose by Friedman
The Prophet by Gibran
Synchronicity by Peat
Complementarity by Plotnitsky
Metapatterns by Volk
Microfoundations by Weintraub
A First Course in String Theory by Zwiebach
Among others
Lee
In my case, Harmonious Universe emerged from my immersion in:
Affluent Society by Galbraith
Silent Spring by Carson
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Pirsig
Lila by Pirsig
The Story of Philosophy by Will Durant
The Dancing Wu-Li Masters by Zukav
The Tao of Physics by Capra
The Art of Mathematics by King
Chaos by Gleick
Complexity by Waldrop
Fire in the Mind by Johnson
Quantum Self by Zohar
Superforce by Davis
The Elegant Universe by Greene
How to Know God by Chopra
Shakespeare and the Common Understanding by Rabkin
Quantum Theory by Bohm
A Mathematical Bridge by Hewson
Tao of Chaos by Walter
Consilience by Wilson
Art & Physics by Shlain
Hyperspace by Kaku
The Self-Aware Universe by Goswami
The Philosophy of Physics by Torretti
The Quark and the Jaguar by Gell-Mann
At Home in the Universe by Kaufmann
Would be Worlds by Casti
Universals by Armstrong
The Theatre of the Absurd by Esslin
Free to Choose by Friedman
The Prophet by Gibran
Synchronicity by Peat
Complementarity by Plotnitsky
Metapatterns by Volk
Microfoundations by Weintraub
A First Course in String Theory by Zwiebach
Among others
Lee
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Harmonious Modeling
Now we begin.
To build the new analytical framework needed to allow the Obama Administration to deliver on its promise of change, the following steps will be needed:
1. Empower the analytical team.
2. Develop team strategy.
3. Assemble the team.
4. Review existing models.
5. Survey new models.
6. Integrate models.
The goal is an efficient transition from the existing structure to one appropriate to the twenty first century. Any new structure will start with the existing economic/financial/public policy structure and integrate the needed actuarial, complexity and data structures.
Examples of output from the new model include:
Year
Scenario
Factor
Population
Resources
Infrastructure
Demographics
Health
Welfare
Defense
Medicare
Social Security
Debt Service
Transportation
Housing
Energy
Manufacturing
Financial
Education
GNP
NEW*
*Net Economic Welfare
It should be pretty obvious how such a model would transcend and improve upon existing ones. This model could test a wide variety of complex options, and even after an option is chosen it could monitor results and make adjustments as needed. It could test the actuarial soundness of results as well.
It could also test sustainability of results in terms of available resources and population levels.
It's time to get serious.
Yes we can.
Lee
To build the new analytical framework needed to allow the Obama Administration to deliver on its promise of change, the following steps will be needed:
1. Empower the analytical team.
2. Develop team strategy.
3. Assemble the team.
4. Review existing models.
5. Survey new models.
6. Integrate models.
The goal is an efficient transition from the existing structure to one appropriate to the twenty first century. Any new structure will start with the existing economic/financial/public policy structure and integrate the needed actuarial, complexity and data structures.
Examples of output from the new model include:
Year
Scenario
Factor
Population
Resources
Infrastructure
Demographics
Health
Welfare
Defense
Medicare
Social Security
Debt Service
Transportation
Housing
Energy
Manufacturing
Financial
Education
GNP
NEW*
*Net Economic Welfare
It should be pretty obvious how such a model would transcend and improve upon existing ones. This model could test a wide variety of complex options, and even after an option is chosen it could monitor results and make adjustments as needed. It could test the actuarial soundness of results as well.
It could also test sustainability of results in terms of available resources and population levels.
It's time to get serious.
Yes we can.
Lee
Actuarial Model of the Economy
An actuarial model of the U.S. economy would be probabilistic, demographic, holistic, complex, and actuariall sound. It would incorporate Enterprise Risk Management, Dynamic Financial Analysis, General Linear Modeling, Econometrics, and Complexity Science.
Who cares?
Well, the global and U.S. economies are on their deathbeds, the environment is collapsing, we are running out of resources, and the demographics of upcoming generations is unsupportable by existing institutions.
Unless somebody in Washington realizes that the analytical tools being used to evaluate public policy initiatives are outdated, and prone to misdiagnosis, (how do you think we got here?) all the "geniuses" in the world (Summers, Geithner, Goolsby, Clinton, Kudlow, Welch, Bernacke, Volcker...) will fail.
Who cares?
Well, the global and U.S. economies are on their deathbeds, the environment is collapsing, we are running out of resources, and the demographics of upcoming generations is unsupportable by existing institutions.
Unless somebody in Washington realizes that the analytical tools being used to evaluate public policy initiatives are outdated, and prone to misdiagnosis, (how do you think we got here?) all the "geniuses" in the world (Summers, Geithner, Goolsby, Clinton, Kudlow, Welch, Bernacke, Volcker...) will fail.
Demonstrating a model which will supplement and transcend the impossibly complicated financial and economic models currently in use is not realistic on a blog.
The basic outline of such a model, however, can be attempted.
The modeling team will consist of physicists, mathematicians, economists, computer scientists, financial engineers and actuaries with a mix of management, technical, and public policy expertise.
Such a team does not currently exist as such.
The model input will be as much detail about the federal budget and national economy as is deemed feasible and useful. It will be enough data to see all the major interactions which occur as a result of government activity but not so much as to be analytically unworkable.
The analytics will be a mix of traditional econometric and financial models supplemented by advances in actuarial science, complexity science, data-mining and visualization, and computer processing which have thus far not been utilized in public policy modeling.
The output will be impact by area by time frame by uncertainty level of alternative government actions. For example, if $100 million of government largess is to be bestowed upon the "auto industry", the impact on all areas impacting and impacted by the auto sector will be shown under various scenarios.
If $100 billion is to be allocated to the "financial sector'" the various ways that the money can flow through the economy under various economic scenarios can be tested. That allocation can (to some degree) be targeted to have the desired impact on national welfare.
For more information, go to my website, paradigmactuaries.com.
Lee
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
The Obama Budget as an Agent Based Structure
The Obama Stimulus/Bailout Proposal is in trouble...for good reason...no one knows how it will work.
The tragedy is that there are analytical tools available which could tell us how various scenarios would play out. From the labs and universities of our country have emerged data mining, analytics, data visualization, computer processing and statistical models which can take the most complex issues and make them manageable.
The American and Global economies are complex systems. Their performance depends on complex interactions among a number of complex networks and webs.
Standard economic and financial models of the type still used in Washington have continually failed to address real world problems. The economic models, for all their apparant sophistication, still incorporate assumptions which have not been seriously updated for decades.
Financial models are largely based on the same Portfolio Theory structures which gave us Enron, Long Term Capital, and the recent global economic collapse over mortgage derivatives.
The reasons standard models don't work any more, if they ever did, is that they are not robust enough to respond to the real world. The real world is messy, uncertain, interconnected, and labyrinthine.
Traditional models postulate smooth patterns, rational behavior, and independent actions.
What the advanced models which exist in places like Los Alamos, Ann Arbor, Boston and Santa Fe do is to allow nature and the real world define itself. Using the latest data organization, analytical and visualization technology, they take raw data from the environment and let it sort itself into logical categories. They then adapt analytical structures to the patterns which emerge.
What his leads to is information for policy makers which is:
1. Holistic: All interconnections, emergences, cascades, fractal structures, and power laws are tested before conclusions are drawn.
2. Probabilistic: Various scenarios are run, and results are tabulated not just on an expected value basis, but with expected ranges of results by time frame.
3. Actuarially Sound: Demographics, credibility, homogeneity, risk and time value, are all incorporated into the model.
4. Emergent: When networks and webs result in projections where emergent structures transcend preliminary ones, those more robust projections are utilized.
As a result, the bailout and stimulus proposals can be blended with conventional government activity to produce scenarios by sector and in total. These scenarios will include probability ranges by time frame by sector.
Healthcare is a good example. In the U.S., healthcare is a complex web of patients, providers, corporations, government, employment, demographics, and administraton. Randomly injecting money into the systems will result in random welfare impact.
Only by following the money through the complex web of activity, and directing it at the micro level where possible is there a chance of having optimal impact on welfare, wellness, jobs, the deficit, and gdp.
The tragedy is that there are analytical tools available which could tell us how various scenarios would play out. From the labs and universities of our country have emerged data mining, analytics, data visualization, computer processing and statistical models which can take the most complex issues and make them manageable.
The American and Global economies are complex systems. Their performance depends on complex interactions among a number of complex networks and webs.
Standard economic and financial models of the type still used in Washington have continually failed to address real world problems. The economic models, for all their apparant sophistication, still incorporate assumptions which have not been seriously updated for decades.
Financial models are largely based on the same Portfolio Theory structures which gave us Enron, Long Term Capital, and the recent global economic collapse over mortgage derivatives.
The reasons standard models don't work any more, if they ever did, is that they are not robust enough to respond to the real world. The real world is messy, uncertain, interconnected, and labyrinthine.
Traditional models postulate smooth patterns, rational behavior, and independent actions.
What the advanced models which exist in places like Los Alamos, Ann Arbor, Boston and Santa Fe do is to allow nature and the real world define itself. Using the latest data organization, analytical and visualization technology, they take raw data from the environment and let it sort itself into logical categories. They then adapt analytical structures to the patterns which emerge.
What his leads to is information for policy makers which is:
1. Holistic: All interconnections, emergences, cascades, fractal structures, and power laws are tested before conclusions are drawn.
2. Probabilistic: Various scenarios are run, and results are tabulated not just on an expected value basis, but with expected ranges of results by time frame.
3. Actuarially Sound: Demographics, credibility, homogeneity, risk and time value, are all incorporated into the model.
4. Emergent: When networks and webs result in projections where emergent structures transcend preliminary ones, those more robust projections are utilized.
As a result, the bailout and stimulus proposals can be blended with conventional government activity to produce scenarios by sector and in total. These scenarios will include probability ranges by time frame by sector.
Healthcare is a good example. In the U.S., healthcare is a complex web of patients, providers, corporations, government, employment, demographics, and administraton. Randomly injecting money into the systems will result in random welfare impact.
Only by following the money through the complex web of activity, and directing it at the micro level where possible is there a chance of having optimal impact on welfare, wellness, jobs, the deficit, and gdp.
Historical transformations in the eras of the automobile, computer, electronics, and so on have shown definite patterns. The need now is for a sustainable transition which is envoironmentally friendly and resource efficient.
Future blogs wll provide additonal material on models which respond to the landscape of the twenty first century.
Lee
Monday, February 2, 2009
The Mathematics of Chaos
Now that we've reviewed the math of particle physics and relativity, we can move on to the math of things we can touch, feel, see, hear and smell.
No, we aren't interested in Newtonian Mechanics at this point. We want to show how chaos theory is a bridge from "simple" systems like atoms to "complex" systems like humans, ecologies, and economies.
Just as patterns in the subatomic world give rise to the mathematics of particle physics, patterns in nature and the cosmos give rise to the mathmatics of complex systems.
A universality has been found in patterns beneath the surface of things like the human heart, weather, internet traffic, the human brain, nature's rhythms, and cosmic expansion.
There is a holism and universality not unlike that found in certain subatomic patterns in the world around us.
Historically, mathematicians and scientists have attemped to deal with the nonlinear patterns of complex systems using standard mathematical structures like transformed differential equations and probability theory. The problem is that complex systems involve patterns that ultimately don't cooperate with such standard approaches.
As was the case in quantum mechanics and relativity theory, a new way of thinking is needed if we are really going to make progress in understanding complex systems. The dramatic increase in computing power in recent years has provided opportunities for such new thinking.
State and phase space, perturbation, fractals, attractors, power laws, cascades, symmetries, topologies, multifractals, and phase transitions are examples of notions which have arisen in the search for patterns in complex systems. If the mathematics underlying those patterns happens to relate to the patterns uncovered in the subatomic world, a metaphysical and scientific revolution of unprecedented power will be unleashed.
A mathematics of reality which begins with the fuzzy patterns in the subatomic world and shows how those patterns, even in principle, can be followed up the chain of reality, could lead us to a picture of human and cosmic reality which is holistic, interconnected and transcendent.
Economic activity, political activity, social activity, intellectual activity and spiritual activity could all be viewed from the perspective of universal patterns emerging into structures of truth beauty and justice. Quite a leap in logic, perhaps, but better than most of the other possibilities.
We have discussed in other blogs, and will discuss in future blogs, how such deep perspective can help us deal with the problems of the day. As a highly complex system, the global economy cries out for holisitc analysis. The tools of complexity science and actuarial science are ready to be combined with those of relativity and quantum mechanics to form an analytical structure for public policy analysis in the twenty first century.
Are we up to the challenge?
Yes we are.
Lee
No, we aren't interested in Newtonian Mechanics at this point. We want to show how chaos theory is a bridge from "simple" systems like atoms to "complex" systems like humans, ecologies, and economies.
Just as patterns in the subatomic world give rise to the mathematics of particle physics, patterns in nature and the cosmos give rise to the mathmatics of complex systems.
A universality has been found in patterns beneath the surface of things like the human heart, weather, internet traffic, the human brain, nature's rhythms, and cosmic expansion.
There is a holism and universality not unlike that found in certain subatomic patterns in the world around us.
Historically, mathematicians and scientists have attemped to deal with the nonlinear patterns of complex systems using standard mathematical structures like transformed differential equations and probability theory. The problem is that complex systems involve patterns that ultimately don't cooperate with such standard approaches.
As was the case in quantum mechanics and relativity theory, a new way of thinking is needed if we are really going to make progress in understanding complex systems. The dramatic increase in computing power in recent years has provided opportunities for such new thinking.
State and phase space, perturbation, fractals, attractors, power laws, cascades, symmetries, topologies, multifractals, and phase transitions are examples of notions which have arisen in the search for patterns in complex systems. If the mathematics underlying those patterns happens to relate to the patterns uncovered in the subatomic world, a metaphysical and scientific revolution of unprecedented power will be unleashed.
A mathematics of reality which begins with the fuzzy patterns in the subatomic world and shows how those patterns, even in principle, can be followed up the chain of reality, could lead us to a picture of human and cosmic reality which is holistic, interconnected and transcendent.
Economic activity, political activity, social activity, intellectual activity and spiritual activity could all be viewed from the perspective of universal patterns emerging into structures of truth beauty and justice. Quite a leap in logic, perhaps, but better than most of the other possibilities.
We have discussed in other blogs, and will discuss in future blogs, how such deep perspective can help us deal with the problems of the day. As a highly complex system, the global economy cries out for holisitc analysis. The tools of complexity science and actuarial science are ready to be combined with those of relativity and quantum mechanics to form an analytical structure for public policy analysis in the twenty first century.
Are we up to the challenge?
Yes we are.
Lee
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Glass Bead Game
Hesses's novel posits an imaginary world in which spiritual values emerge dynamically as a game with musical and mathematical elements is played. The rules of the game draw from the sciences and arts, and express interrelationships among all areas of knowledge. As a result, it encompasses all aspects of culture and can lead to a full understanding of reality.
That sounds remarkably close to the basic premise of Harmonious Universe where developments in particle physics become the structure of the game. The metaphors of particle physics, waves, particles, fields, dimensions, entanglement...create a vision of a transcendent world where the mysteries of life are resolved.
The deeper we penetrate the atom and its nucleus the more fuzzy the core of reality seems. Electrons which orbit the nucleus are not "things", but are more like clouds of virtual reality. The quarks which make up the protons and neutrons in the nucleus may be stringlike objects whose vibrations in dimensions beyond our own create the elements of our world.
These particles may not exist at all, except as part of a web of connections made manifest by fields of virtuality.
In The Music of the Spheres, Jamie James starts out with a "Great Theme", "Picture to yourself, if you can, a universe in which everything makes sense. A serene order presides over the earth around you, and the heavens above revolve in sublime harmony.
Everything you can hear and see and know is an aspect of the ultimate truth: the noble simplicity of a geometric theorem, the predictability of the movement of the heavenly bodies, the harmonious beauty of a well-proportioned fugue-all are reflections of the essential perfection of the universe."
James goes on to demonstrate, through a journey through Western thought, how a loss of transcendence in the Industrial Revolution and Romantic movement dulled our sense of wonder and awe at the sheer power of the universe.
Harmonious Universe puts the sense of wonder back into our souls. A physical universe of mystery and beauty evolves into a mental and spiritual universe of unlimited possibility.
A convergence is now occurring. In the late 18th century, a group of amazing intellects created a country which has been a beacon of hope for all peoples for centuries. In the 1960's, developments in the sciences, arts, and politics were pointing to a new age of truth beauty and justice.
In 2009 a new Administration entered Washington on a wave of hope that mirrors that in the sciences of finding deep truths.
We are beginning a process of transforming the American economy into one which will provide hope for centuries to come. We will need wisdom, courage, strength and integrity.
We can move our society forward in a way that assures that future generations will have the opportunities we have had.
Yes we can.
Lee
That sounds remarkably close to the basic premise of Harmonious Universe where developments in particle physics become the structure of the game. The metaphors of particle physics, waves, particles, fields, dimensions, entanglement...create a vision of a transcendent world where the mysteries of life are resolved.
The deeper we penetrate the atom and its nucleus the more fuzzy the core of reality seems. Electrons which orbit the nucleus are not "things", but are more like clouds of virtual reality. The quarks which make up the protons and neutrons in the nucleus may be stringlike objects whose vibrations in dimensions beyond our own create the elements of our world.
These particles may not exist at all, except as part of a web of connections made manifest by fields of virtuality.
In The Music of the Spheres, Jamie James starts out with a "Great Theme", "Picture to yourself, if you can, a universe in which everything makes sense. A serene order presides over the earth around you, and the heavens above revolve in sublime harmony.
Everything you can hear and see and know is an aspect of the ultimate truth: the noble simplicity of a geometric theorem, the predictability of the movement of the heavenly bodies, the harmonious beauty of a well-proportioned fugue-all are reflections of the essential perfection of the universe."
James goes on to demonstrate, through a journey through Western thought, how a loss of transcendence in the Industrial Revolution and Romantic movement dulled our sense of wonder and awe at the sheer power of the universe.
Harmonious Universe puts the sense of wonder back into our souls. A physical universe of mystery and beauty evolves into a mental and spiritual universe of unlimited possibility.
A convergence is now occurring. In the late 18th century, a group of amazing intellects created a country which has been a beacon of hope for all peoples for centuries. In the 1960's, developments in the sciences, arts, and politics were pointing to a new age of truth beauty and justice.
In 2009 a new Administration entered Washington on a wave of hope that mirrors that in the sciences of finding deep truths.
We are beginning a process of transforming the American economy into one which will provide hope for centuries to come. We will need wisdom, courage, strength and integrity.
We can move our society forward in a way that assures that future generations will have the opportunities we have had.
Yes we can.
Lee
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Obama's First Stumble
It had to happen.
It's kind of a relief.
Nobody's perfect.
The bailout/stimulus proposal which came out this week won't work!
It's not Barack's fault. He needs to rely on his advisers even as he occasionally transcends them.
It's really not their fault either. They don't know any better. No one told them that their failed models need updating.
But it'a too important to ignore. Between the Federal Budget and potential stimuli/bailouts, there are trillions of dollars at stake. More importantly, there is the opportunity to transform the economy into one that is sustainable and more just.
We are at the edge of a precipice that we created, and we only get one chance to step back and save the economy.
Does it make sense to continue to spend government money based on analysis which has proven to be wrong so many times?
Such a model can supplement existing economic, financial and public policy models in determining where spending will have optimal effect, what the uncertainties are, how to make adjustments dynamically, how to handle interactions, and all the other factors existing models ignore or miss.
The best minds in Washington are doing their best, but is isn't good enough. Some of the programs proposed will have some positive impact, but no one knows how much, or whether more innovative approaches would have much more effect.
What if we find, that using the best analytics possible, the impact of bailout and stimulus activity can be increased 100 fold or more over the next decade?
Should we at least consider it?
The global economy is collapsing.
Social Security is effectively bankrupt.
The healthcare system is crumbling under its own weight.
The deficit is dangerous, particularly if forecasts of the future US economy are distorted.
None of these issues are adequately addressed in proposals made to date.
The Federal Budget, along with all bailout and stimulation activity is a complex system which impacts a web of other complex systems. Government spending impacts the healthcare system, the infrastructure system, the prison system, the retirement system, the welfare system, the education system, and a variey of other systems, not to mention foreign relations.
Each of these systems has subsystems like housing, transportation, energy, goods, services, environment, medicine, and so on.
No model in place in Washington can deal with the interconnections, demographics, uncertainties, management, and data requirements of such a complex network.
We can transform the economy successfully . We can evolve into a country with sustainable and just results.
We have the intellectual resources.
We have the technical resources.
Yes we do.
Lee
It's kind of a relief.
Nobody's perfect.
The bailout/stimulus proposal which came out this week won't work!
It's not Barack's fault. He needs to rely on his advisers even as he occasionally transcends them.
It's really not their fault either. They don't know any better. No one told them that their failed models need updating.
But it'a too important to ignore. Between the Federal Budget and potential stimuli/bailouts, there are trillions of dollars at stake. More importantly, there is the opportunity to transform the economy into one that is sustainable and more just.
We are at the edge of a precipice that we created, and we only get one chance to step back and save the economy.
Does it make sense to continue to spend government money based on analysis which has proven to be wrong so many times?
Would it make sense to allocate a small portion of new government spending on the development of a new structure for public policy analysis which has proven itself many times?
The answers are obvious.
There is a team of the best minds in the fields of particle physics, complexity science, actuarial science, and computer science ready to be assembled. They can build a model with the best data mining, enterprise risk management, dynamic financial analysis, data visualization, demographic, probability, and management analytics available.Such a model can supplement existing economic, financial and public policy models in determining where spending will have optimal effect, what the uncertainties are, how to make adjustments dynamically, how to handle interactions, and all the other factors existing models ignore or miss.
The best minds in Washington are doing their best, but is isn't good enough. Some of the programs proposed will have some positive impact, but no one knows how much, or whether more innovative approaches would have much more effect.
What if we find, that using the best analytics possible, the impact of bailout and stimulus activity can be increased 100 fold or more over the next decade?
Should we at least consider it?
The global economy is collapsing.
Social Security is effectively bankrupt.
The healthcare system is crumbling under its own weight.
The deficit is dangerous, particularly if forecasts of the future US economy are distorted.
None of these issues are adequately addressed in proposals made to date.
The Federal Budget, along with all bailout and stimulation activity is a complex system which impacts a web of other complex systems. Government spending impacts the healthcare system, the infrastructure system, the prison system, the retirement system, the welfare system, the education system, and a variey of other systems, not to mention foreign relations.
Each of these systems has subsystems like housing, transportation, energy, goods, services, environment, medicine, and so on.
No model in place in Washington can deal with the interconnections, demographics, uncertainties, management, and data requirements of such a complex network.
We can transform the economy successfully . We can evolve into a country with sustainable and just results.
We have the intellectual resources.
We have the technical resources.
Yes we do.
Lee
Friday, January 30, 2009
The Math of String Theory
If there is to be a "Theory of Everything" for the forces of nature, string theory at the moment seems to have a good chance of playing a major role. Everything that happens in the physical universe may be ultimately represented in a single, elegant equation.
The mathematics of string theory gives hope to the dream of a resolution of some of the problems in the current model of particle physics. By adding dimensions to the framework, string theory provides new avenues to mathematical consistency.
Of course, if some version of string theory holds , as was the case with quantum mechanics, our world view will have to be altered dramatically. In addition to matter and energy, space and time themselves will cease to have their commonsense characteristics.
On a conceptual level, string theory uses one dimensional strings rather than zero dimensional particles in developing the formulas. The way these strings "vibrate" determines what type of particle emerges, and ultimately, what kind of universe emerges.
Just as the strings of a piano have resonant frequencies, so do the vibrating strings of subatomic reality. Whereas the strings of musical instruments produce notes, string vibrations produce particles.
The forces of nature also emerge from string vibration patterns. As a result, all matter and forces known become notes on a universal string.
Particle properties are a manifestatinof resonant pattterns of string vibrations as well.
Stretching the metaphor, there is a school of thought that this framework can be brought to bear on the more complex systems which have emerged in our universe, including life and consciousness.
While chaos theory and complexity science show new laws come into play as system compexity increases, there is a belief that those new laws may ultimately be found to be consistent with the deeper mathematics of string theory.
It takes a while to digest even the conceptual, much less the mathematical, framework of string theory. If right, it posits a multidimensional labyrinth of interconnected structures mysteriously intertwined with our notions of space and time.
In conventional physics, events occur in four dimensions. They can be undersood in the context of four factors.
In quantum mechanics, the microscopic properties of space become dissimilar to the analogous properties in classical physics. The notion of a violent quantum foam versus the smooth surface of relativity causes and results in mathematical incompatiblity between the theories.
The standard model of particle physics posits a world of pointlike objects. String/Superstring Theory unveils a cosmos emerging from a microscopic landscape of strings whose vibrations emerge as symphony of reality.
Everything in the universe emerges from vibrating strings.
When strings and their vibrations are fundamental (rather than point particles), the incompatibility of microscopic spatial structures between relaivity and quantum physics vanishes.
Supersymmery is part of string theory. Fermions and bosons are paired, symmetric, in a supersymmetric universe, and the mathematics becomes more elegant as dimensions are added.
Fundamental properties of the universe depend on the number and structure of dimensions in which the fundamental strings vibrate.
In supersymmetry, Hamiltonians commute with supercharges and Lagrangians are transformed to produce mixed bosonic and fermionic fields. Dirac and Pauli matrices are utilized in the representation, and a supersymmetric Lagrangian emerges.
A particular class of six dimensional spaces known as Calabi-Yau spaces have the geometric struture required to meet the mathematical properties of the theory
The mathematics of string theory is important in its own right. Even if it is found that string theory doesn't fully describe our universe, the underlying mathematics has blazed new trails of understanding.
As Robert Pirsig said in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance,"...the stream of national consciousness moves faster now, and is broader, but it seems to run less deep...Some channel deepening is called for."
There are a number of cosmic and subatomic implications of the math of string theory. These will be explored throughout my blogs.
Like a Beethoven Symphony, or Mozart Concerto, our world is a labyrinth of elements which emerges in a much more beautiful form than could be predicted from an assemblage of the parts.
The solution of a wave equation can be written in terms of a superposition, a Fourier expansion. The symmetries of the Lagrangian, the energy momentum tensor, and the Hamiltonian which governs time evolution of the worldsheet are elements of the classical analysis of strings.
The quantum extension of classical theory involves covariant quantization and Virasoro constraints. At this point there are 26 space-time dimensions.
Conformal field theory is used in peturbative string theory. A conformal transformation maps a region of the complex plane onto a more workable space.
In T-duality, open strings with Neumann boundary conditions are transformed to those with Dirichlet boundaries.
Spacetime supersymmetry involves superfields, superspaces, Grassman coordinates, and Green- Schwarz formalism.
In conclusion, string theory develops a mathematical framework by which to model the essence of all subatomoic activity. It shows that at the deepest level, reality may be interconnected and multidimensional. This has profound philosophical implcations.
This concludes our blogs on the mathematics of subatomic interactions. (whew!)
The next blogs in Mathematical Universe will deal with the mathematics of larger systems, up to and including the global economic system.
Lee
The mathematics of string theory gives hope to the dream of a resolution of some of the problems in the current model of particle physics. By adding dimensions to the framework, string theory provides new avenues to mathematical consistency.
Of course, if some version of string theory holds , as was the case with quantum mechanics, our world view will have to be altered dramatically. In addition to matter and energy, space and time themselves will cease to have their commonsense characteristics.
On a conceptual level, string theory uses one dimensional strings rather than zero dimensional particles in developing the formulas. The way these strings "vibrate" determines what type of particle emerges, and ultimately, what kind of universe emerges.
Just as the strings of a piano have resonant frequencies, so do the vibrating strings of subatomic reality. Whereas the strings of musical instruments produce notes, string vibrations produce particles.
The forces of nature also emerge from string vibration patterns. As a result, all matter and forces known become notes on a universal string.
Particle properties are a manifestatinof resonant pattterns of string vibrations as well.
Stretching the metaphor, there is a school of thought that this framework can be brought to bear on the more complex systems which have emerged in our universe, including life and consciousness.
While chaos theory and complexity science show new laws come into play as system compexity increases, there is a belief that those new laws may ultimately be found to be consistent with the deeper mathematics of string theory.
It takes a while to digest even the conceptual, much less the mathematical, framework of string theory. If right, it posits a multidimensional labyrinth of interconnected structures mysteriously intertwined with our notions of space and time.
In conventional physics, events occur in four dimensions. They can be undersood in the context of four factors.
In quantum mechanics, the microscopic properties of space become dissimilar to the analogous properties in classical physics. The notion of a violent quantum foam versus the smooth surface of relativity causes and results in mathematical incompatiblity between the theories.
The standard model of particle physics posits a world of pointlike objects. String/Superstring Theory unveils a cosmos emerging from a microscopic landscape of strings whose vibrations emerge as symphony of reality.
Everything in the universe emerges from vibrating strings.
When strings and their vibrations are fundamental (rather than point particles), the incompatibility of microscopic spatial structures between relaivity and quantum physics vanishes.
Supersymmery is part of string theory. Fermions and bosons are paired, symmetric, in a supersymmetric universe, and the mathematics becomes more elegant as dimensions are added.
Fundamental properties of the universe depend on the number and structure of dimensions in which the fundamental strings vibrate.
In supersymmetry, Hamiltonians commute with supercharges and Lagrangians are transformed to produce mixed bosonic and fermionic fields. Dirac and Pauli matrices are utilized in the representation, and a supersymmetric Lagrangian emerges.
A particular class of six dimensional spaces known as Calabi-Yau spaces have the geometric struture required to meet the mathematical properties of the theory
The mathematics of string theory is important in its own right. Even if it is found that string theory doesn't fully describe our universe, the underlying mathematics has blazed new trails of understanding.
As Robert Pirsig said in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance,"...the stream of national consciousness moves faster now, and is broader, but it seems to run less deep...Some channel deepening is called for."
There are a number of cosmic and subatomic implications of the math of string theory. These will be explored throughout my blogs.
Like a Beethoven Symphony, or Mozart Concerto, our world is a labyrinth of elements which emerges in a much more beautiful form than could be predicted from an assemblage of the parts.
The solution of a wave equation can be written in terms of a superposition, a Fourier expansion. The symmetries of the Lagrangian, the energy momentum tensor, and the Hamiltonian which governs time evolution of the worldsheet are elements of the classical analysis of strings.
The quantum extension of classical theory involves covariant quantization and Virasoro constraints. At this point there are 26 space-time dimensions.
Conformal field theory is used in peturbative string theory. A conformal transformation maps a region of the complex plane onto a more workable space.
In T-duality, open strings with Neumann boundary conditions are transformed to those with Dirichlet boundaries.
Spacetime supersymmetry involves superfields, superspaces, Grassman coordinates, and Green- Schwarz formalism.
In conclusion, string theory develops a mathematical framework by which to model the essence of all subatomoic activity. It shows that at the deepest level, reality may be interconnected and multidimensional. This has profound philosophical implcations.
This concludes our blogs on the mathematics of subatomic interactions. (whew!)
The next blogs in Mathematical Universe will deal with the mathematics of larger systems, up to and including the global economic system.
Lee
Saturday, January 24, 2009
The Mathematics of Relativity
This blog is meant for readers with a modicum of interest in the mathemtics of reality.
While no mathematical background is necessary to enjoy this blog, mathematical interest is.
This particular blog will discuss the mathematics of relativity. Later blogs will discuss the mathematics of quantum mechanics, quantum field theory, string theory, complexity science, economics, finance and actuarial science.
Descriptions like that which follows can be found in many relativity publications. In this blog we will be following the formalism laid out in Relativity Demystified.
The mathematical structure of relativity is as straightforward as it is complex. Einstein's special and general theories of relativity change the way we think about our world. Many phenomena of common sense fall within the mathmatics of relativity.
The basic idea flows from a series of mathematical relationships. In 1865, physicist James Clerk Maxwell published his equations which posited that electromagnetic (em) waves exist, and move at the speed of light. Electromagnetic fields can be shown to satisfy wave equations using simple vector calculus.
This is important, because wave equations are used extensively in physics to model physical events. It is important in the context of relativity because it can be shown that em waves (light) always travel at the same speed. It is the constancy of the speed of light in all frames of reference which leads to many of the unique elements of relativity theory.
While no mathematical background is necessary to enjoy this blog, mathematical interest is.
This particular blog will discuss the mathematics of relativity. Later blogs will discuss the mathematics of quantum mechanics, quantum field theory, string theory, complexity science, economics, finance and actuarial science.
Descriptions like that which follows can be found in many relativity publications. In this blog we will be following the formalism laid out in Relativity Demystified.
The mathematical structure of relativity is as straightforward as it is complex. Einstein's special and general theories of relativity change the way we think about our world. Many phenomena of common sense fall within the mathmatics of relativity.
The basic idea flows from a series of mathematical relationships. In 1865, physicist James Clerk Maxwell published his equations which posited that electromagnetic (em) waves exist, and move at the speed of light. Electromagnetic fields can be shown to satisfy wave equations using simple vector calculus.
This is important, because wave equations are used extensively in physics to model physical events. It is important in the context of relativity because it can be shown that em waves (light) always travel at the same speed. It is the constancy of the speed of light in all frames of reference which leads to many of the unique elements of relativity theory.
In Newtonian physics, distances and times are fixed. When it was discovered that waves don't need a medium in which to travel, a mathematical tool called a Lorentz Transformation was applied to explain the results.
Newton used two equations to describe gravity. The first describes the path of a particle through space. The second describes how mass acts as a source of gravity.
Einstein's equations have similar form. In general relativity, the energy-momentum tensor acts as a source of gravitation, and relates to the curvature of spacetime via the Einstein equation.
Symmetries lead to conservation laws. In relativity, Killing vectors can be used to tease out symmetries. The motions of particles and light waves in spacetime involves Lagrangian methods which we will deal with in the math of quantum mechanics blog.
In terms of these blogs, it is important to note that understanding the mathematics of relativity is not just an abstract exercise. Harmonious Universe posits that a metaphysics based on mathematics and science is at least a possibility.
From the mathematics of relativity, particle physics, chaos theory, complexity science and actuarial science, patterns can be seen which point to the possibility that all of reality can be understood at a deep level. The evolution of the universe itself is mathematiclly derivable.
These ideas can be followed without understanding the math, but understanding the math enhances the insights.
Getting back to the math of relativity, now that we have a basic framework, we can begin to build the mathematical structure. The study of relativity involves what most physics does, the analysis of events.
In physics, events occur in a framework. That framework usually involves space, time, matter, and energy. Elements of matter and energy interact in space and time and reality emerges from these interactions.
Galilean Transformations were used to study how phenomena appear to different observers in Newtonian Mechanics. In Relativity Theory, Lorentz Transformations apply.
Among the tools used in developing some of the key elements of Relativity theory are, vectors, tensors, metrics, and manifolds.
Vectors are simply symbols which represent magnitude and direction. Tensors map from vectors to the real numbers. Metrics describe three dimensional space. Manifolds are continuous spaces of points that can be curved globally, but locally are Euclidean.
Many tools of mathematics have as their primary role the simplification of calculation and analysis. Transformations often accomplish this quite directly.
One example is a gauge transformation which is quite prominent in quantum theory, and is used in relativity to tease out wave equations.
In relativity, much of the theory is nonlinear, but can be worked on using linear methods which are much more manageable.
Lie derivatives, Killing vectors, Riemann tensors, Ricci tensors, Cartan Equations, and Einstein's field equations are all in the relativity tool box.
The most famous equation of all, e=mc**2 came out of these elements
From relativity theory came a new vision of the world and a new way of living.
Einstein's relativity theories changed the landscape of the human enterprise. Combined with advances in particle physics, it changed metaphysics itself.
LeeThursday, January 22, 2009
The Metaphysics of Harmony
As our official philosophy blog, Actuarial Universe will explore issues of ultimate reality.
There are many ways to approach ultimate reality. Many of them may be right. Some converge upon unity as the ultimate "value."
What is striking about the unity perspectives is that science and mathematics now lend support to that idea.
From Plato to Kant, Shakespeare to Locke, the idea that ultimately all is one prevails.
Now, the deepest calculations and consternations of scientists and mathematicians go there.
The Standard Model of Particle Physics gives the entities and interactions which define reality at the subatomic level. The particles and waves are virtual and probabilistic. They exist in a web of connections, called fields, and appear to be entangled.
They may emerge from dimensions beyond those our intellects and senses can perceive. When the clouds of energy within the nucleus "interact" with the electron clouds surrounding it, atoms emerge.
When the electrons of these atoms "interact "with those of other atoms, molecules emerge.
From molecules emerge the objects of chemistry and biology.
As we move up the ladder of complexity, the original elements become part of a framework which doesn't seem to reflect their origins. Only recently have scientists begun to uncover connections among complex objects which have patterns similar to those at the subatomic level.
Words like chaos, fractal, and self-organization begin to emerge from this haze of super-atomic reality.
The fact is that there is now a metaphysical scenario, supported by a partial mathematical structure, which portrays a universe in which everything is connected.
From the Big Bang to eternity, there is an underlying symmetry which connects everything at creation. The symmetry at Creation was perfect. It broke as the world cooled and structures which eventually emerged into us emerged. At the core of everything however is the primordial connection.
There are many ways to slice ultimate reality. One is the way that education has been divided. Philosophy, science, art, politics, history, economics, all part of a tapestry of human understanding.
From a scientific point of view, reality is the things we see and feel and their constituents. Nature, humanity, society, the cosmos, all part of a tapestry which scientists explore.
Reality can also be looked at as the sum of human intellectual activity. Plato's Forms, Kant's Categories, Shakespeare's Complementarities, Smith's Invisible Hand, Rousseau's General Will, Pirsig's Quality, Heisenberg's Uncertainty, Dirac's Sea, Schrodinger's Wave, Mandelbrot's Fractals, Mozart's Harmonies, a mosaic of truth and beauty.
Another perspective on ultimate reality is as the envelope of realms. There is a cosmic realm, a philosophical realm, a complex realm, an economic realm, a chaotic realm, a classical realm, a subatomic realm, a human realm, all creating a vision for our minds and bodies to experience.
Stay tuned.
Lee
There are many ways to approach ultimate reality. Many of them may be right. Some converge upon unity as the ultimate "value."
What is striking about the unity perspectives is that science and mathematics now lend support to that idea.
From Plato to Kant, Shakespeare to Locke, the idea that ultimately all is one prevails.
Now, the deepest calculations and consternations of scientists and mathematicians go there.
The Standard Model of Particle Physics gives the entities and interactions which define reality at the subatomic level. The particles and waves are virtual and probabilistic. They exist in a web of connections, called fields, and appear to be entangled.
They may emerge from dimensions beyond those our intellects and senses can perceive. When the clouds of energy within the nucleus "interact" with the electron clouds surrounding it, atoms emerge.
When the electrons of these atoms "interact "with those of other atoms, molecules emerge.
From molecules emerge the objects of chemistry and biology.
As we move up the ladder of complexity, the original elements become part of a framework which doesn't seem to reflect their origins. Only recently have scientists begun to uncover connections among complex objects which have patterns similar to those at the subatomic level.
Words like chaos, fractal, and self-organization begin to emerge from this haze of super-atomic reality.
The fact is that there is now a metaphysical scenario, supported by a partial mathematical structure, which portrays a universe in which everything is connected.
From the Big Bang to eternity, there is an underlying symmetry which connects everything at creation. The symmetry at Creation was perfect. It broke as the world cooled and structures which eventually emerged into us emerged. At the core of everything however is the primordial connection.
There are many ways to slice ultimate reality. One is the way that education has been divided. Philosophy, science, art, politics, history, economics, all part of a tapestry of human understanding.
From a scientific point of view, reality is the things we see and feel and their constituents. Nature, humanity, society, the cosmos, all part of a tapestry which scientists explore.
Reality can also be looked at as the sum of human intellectual activity. Plato's Forms, Kant's Categories, Shakespeare's Complementarities, Smith's Invisible Hand, Rousseau's General Will, Pirsig's Quality, Heisenberg's Uncertainty, Dirac's Sea, Schrodinger's Wave, Mandelbrot's Fractals, Mozart's Harmonies, a mosaic of truth and beauty.
Another perspective on ultimate reality is as the envelope of realms. There is a cosmic realm, a philosophical realm, a complex realm, an economic realm, a chaotic realm, a classical realm, a subatomic realm, a human realm, all creating a vision for our minds and bodies to experience.
Stay tuned.
Lee
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Morning has Broken
"Nineteen Sixty-Eight had the vibrations of an earthquake about it. America shuddered.History cracked open..."
So began Time magazine's exploration of the last year of hope before now in America and the world.
American history has endured many tragedies and triumphs. Among the latter are the forming of the union, the wisdom of the Founding Fathers, Abraham, Martin, John, and Bobby, and now Barack and Michelle.
In 2009, we are on the edge of a knife. On one side is the end of the American dream. On the other, a transformed society positioned to continue the journey begun in 1776.
For 40 years we have wandered in the wilderness. Bogged down by senseless wars, erratic goverment policy, fiscal irresponsibility, hypocrisy and ignorance, we have landed on the edge of a cliff.
We can back away. We can find a way to expand the economy in a sustainable way.
The Obama team has identified the core problems and is poised to fix them. They are also faced with intransigence, diminished resources, and vast debt.
To walk through the minefield on the other side of which is a new America will require the best minds and resources. America has them, but they have been hidden for decades.
Complexity and Actuarial Science, Quantum Mechanics, and Economics provide tools by which to direct government activity into the areas which will avoid the mines and expand the economy in a sustainable way.
We need an economy which will support our promises to those who are in poverty through no fault of their own, to the sick, to the retired, and to others in need.
We need an economy which provides opportunity to all who are able to work, and which is sustainable.
We need a society with liberty and justice for all.
Yesterday's Inauguration was the first step in the journey. Just as Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln found the path from despair to hope, so can Barack.
He has asked for our help. Can we respond?
Yes we can.
Lee
So began Time magazine's exploration of the last year of hope before now in America and the world.
American history has endured many tragedies and triumphs. Among the latter are the forming of the union, the wisdom of the Founding Fathers, Abraham, Martin, John, and Bobby, and now Barack and Michelle.
In 2009, we are on the edge of a knife. On one side is the end of the American dream. On the other, a transformed society positioned to continue the journey begun in 1776.
For 40 years we have wandered in the wilderness. Bogged down by senseless wars, erratic goverment policy, fiscal irresponsibility, hypocrisy and ignorance, we have landed on the edge of a cliff.
We can back away. We can find a way to expand the economy in a sustainable way.
The Obama team has identified the core problems and is poised to fix them. They are also faced with intransigence, diminished resources, and vast debt.
To walk through the minefield on the other side of which is a new America will require the best minds and resources. America has them, but they have been hidden for decades.
Complexity and Actuarial Science, Quantum Mechanics, and Economics provide tools by which to direct government activity into the areas which will avoid the mines and expand the economy in a sustainable way.
We need an economy which will support our promises to those who are in poverty through no fault of their own, to the sick, to the retired, and to others in need.
We need an economy which provides opportunity to all who are able to work, and which is sustainable.
We need a society with liberty and justice for all.
Yesterday's Inauguration was the first step in the journey. Just as Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln found the path from despair to hope, so can Barack.
He has asked for our help. Can we respond?
Yes we can.
Lee
Monday, January 12, 2009
The New Structure of Mathematics
Our blogs will now become somewhat specialized.
Huffington Post will be a general site...Harmony.
This blog, Mathematical Universe, will deal with the underlying mathematics of Harmonious Universe...truth.
Quantum Universe will deal with the underlying science...beauty.
The Art of Hardball will deal with the underlying politics and economics...justice.
The new structure of mathematics will build up from the deep structures of pure and particle mathematics through the cobbled structures of economics, finance and actuarial science.
The unifying structures will be those of complexity science. At it s most basic level, complexity science is the application of the most advanced computer and analytical structures to the most advanced problems of society.
It is the structure which emerges when the best scientists apply their deepest wisdom to the deep problems they attack.
No one will have to go back to school to follow this blog. A major point of the new structure of mathematics is that it be coherent to a general audience.
That doesn't mean sacrificing analytical robustness. It merely means organizing and explaining the tools better.
The new structure itself naturally starts with pure mathmatics. This involves mathematical structures that don't necessarily relate to anything we observe.
It should be noted that much of what is originally considered pure mathematics is ultimately found to apply to real problems. Similarly, much applied math (ie. that being developed in string theory) is often found to be pure.
The first level of mathematics beyond pure math is that being used in particle physics. One doesn't have to be able to manipulate Lagrangians, Hamiltonians. Hermitians, Laguerre's, Legendre's, Fouriers, Path Integrals, Hilbert Spaces, Lie Groups, Topologies, or Tensors to know that Schrodinger Waves, Dirac Seas, Feynman Diagrams, Pauli Exclusions, Planck Lengths, Heisenberg Uncertainties, and Maxwell's Equations help us understand how fundamental particles waves and fields become atoms, molecules and us.
The mathematics of particle physics points us to the mathematics of chemistry which in turn points us to biology. Neurology and psychology are on the same trajectory . Now society itself is in view mathematically.
This is where complexity science really shines. Along with some of the structures of chaos theory (fractals, universality...), complexity science is cobbling together a mathematics of everything.
Skeptics will say that humanity and its institutions are too complicated to approach mathmatically. There is some wisdom in that skepticism if not taken to far.
Remember that if we don't use the best math, we will use an inferior one, like the math behind the models which have missed all the recent global meltdowns.
What we are saying is that complexity science gives us a conceptual framework by which to combine the best math and computer science being used in the labs and universities with that being used in business and government. By considering connections among econometric, actuarial and financial models with those of Quantum Mechanics, String Theory and Relativity we will find better ways of connecting mathematics and our realities.
That will put us in a better position to anticipate problems and resolve them so as to optimize human welfare.
Is that not a worthy goal?
The journey begins.
Lee
Huffington Post will be a general site...Harmony.
This blog, Mathematical Universe, will deal with the underlying mathematics of Harmonious Universe...truth.
Quantum Universe will deal with the underlying science...beauty.
The Art of Hardball will deal with the underlying politics and economics...justice.
The new structure of mathematics will build up from the deep structures of pure and particle mathematics through the cobbled structures of economics, finance and actuarial science.
The unifying structures will be those of complexity science. At it s most basic level, complexity science is the application of the most advanced computer and analytical structures to the most advanced problems of society.
It is the structure which emerges when the best scientists apply their deepest wisdom to the deep problems they attack.
No one will have to go back to school to follow this blog. A major point of the new structure of mathematics is that it be coherent to a general audience.
That doesn't mean sacrificing analytical robustness. It merely means organizing and explaining the tools better.
The new structure itself naturally starts with pure mathmatics. This involves mathematical structures that don't necessarily relate to anything we observe.
It should be noted that much of what is originally considered pure mathematics is ultimately found to apply to real problems. Similarly, much applied math (ie. that being developed in string theory) is often found to be pure.
The first level of mathematics beyond pure math is that being used in particle physics. One doesn't have to be able to manipulate Lagrangians, Hamiltonians. Hermitians, Laguerre's, Legendre's, Fouriers, Path Integrals, Hilbert Spaces, Lie Groups, Topologies, or Tensors to know that Schrodinger Waves, Dirac Seas, Feynman Diagrams, Pauli Exclusions, Planck Lengths, Heisenberg Uncertainties, and Maxwell's Equations help us understand how fundamental particles waves and fields become atoms, molecules and us.
The mathematics of particle physics points us to the mathematics of chemistry which in turn points us to biology. Neurology and psychology are on the same trajectory . Now society itself is in view mathematically.
This is where complexity science really shines. Along with some of the structures of chaos theory (fractals, universality...), complexity science is cobbling together a mathematics of everything.
Skeptics will say that humanity and its institutions are too complicated to approach mathmatically. There is some wisdom in that skepticism if not taken to far.
Remember that if we don't use the best math, we will use an inferior one, like the math behind the models which have missed all the recent global meltdowns.
What we are saying is that complexity science gives us a conceptual framework by which to combine the best math and computer science being used in the labs and universities with that being used in business and government. By considering connections among econometric, actuarial and financial models with those of Quantum Mechanics, String Theory and Relativity we will find better ways of connecting mathematics and our realities.
That will put us in a better position to anticipate problems and resolve them so as to optimize human welfare.
Is that not a worthy goal?
The journey begins.
Lee
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Quantum Education
A new worldview calls for a new structure for education. How can 2000 year old categories still be best for 2009 realities?
Not that there's anything wrong with art, science, philosophy, science, government, economics...as areas of learning.
It's just that by learning them as separate areas of thought, we miss their essence.
Unlike Plato, Kant, Shakespeare, Newton, and Adam Smith, we know the essence of reality. Physicists have (more or less) (mathematically) found what exists in the nucleus of the atom, and how the atoms interact with other atoms to build up to the objects we sense.
Scientists have also found mathematical patterns whichc explain much reality at the human and societal level.
Since the aim of education is ultimately to find truth, it is incumbent on us to be sure that at some point that is happening. The truth is that, at its core, reality is a fuzzy cloud of ethreal mathematical metaphors.
OK, that's a mouthful.
But if true, it certainly calls for a rethinking of K-12 and college level curricula.
Not that there's anything wrong with students and adults contemplating the age old questions probed by Plato, Shakespeare, Rousseau, and Sartre.
It's just that we can go deeper and farther.
If reality begins as a swirl of multidimensional fields and probability waves which ultimately ( and mysteriously) emerge as entangled atoms, molecules, substances, cells, genes, neurons, and us, we need some new learning structures to allow this knowledge to enter our culture.
If the natural world is better described by fractal sturctures than classical, that should be part of the educational paradigm as well. And if complex structures (like us) which emerge from simpler stuctures (like quarks) cannot be mathematically compared with those simpler structures, we should be aware of that.
Now if you made it this far, you must be thinking, "Wow, that sounds deep".
Sure, but not necessarily difficult to make part of our national curriculum.
Here's how it might go:
Grades
1-6
Reading, Particle Physics, Writing, Mathematics, Arithmetic, Complexity Science .... ....
7-12
The 3 R's, Calculus for Dummies, History, Deep Science for Dummies, Sociology, Entanglement
Government, Chaos, Economics, Complexity, Arts, Transcendence .... ....
Higher Education
Liberal Arts, Physics, Business, Science, Engineering, Art, Economics, Ultimate Concepts
Government, Complexity II, Arts, Actuarial, Law, Public Policy, Unity ... ...
Of course, detailed course content will be critical to a transition to a joint classical-quantum curriculum. Particle physics as introduced to gradeschoolers will be conceptual...what are fields, waves, particles...at an understandable level.
Deep science for junior high and high schoolers will involve beginning to see the connection between the matenatical and scientific structures whihc have ben found to remarkably represent the reality at the core of the atom.
Philosophy at the college level will probe the relationships between metaphors utilized by classical thinkers (Platonic Forms, Kantian Categories, Hegelian Spirit, Sartrean Essence, Smith's Invisible Hand, Rousseau's General Will...) and the metaphors of modern science and mathematics (fields, waves, groups, spaces, fractals, particles, dimensions, lagrangians, symmetry...)
Yes we can.
Lee
Not that there's anything wrong with art, science, philosophy, science, government, economics...as areas of learning.
It's just that by learning them as separate areas of thought, we miss their essence.
Unlike Plato, Kant, Shakespeare, Newton, and Adam Smith, we know the essence of reality. Physicists have (more or less) (mathematically) found what exists in the nucleus of the atom, and how the atoms interact with other atoms to build up to the objects we sense.
Scientists have also found mathematical patterns whichc explain much reality at the human and societal level.
Since the aim of education is ultimately to find truth, it is incumbent on us to be sure that at some point that is happening. The truth is that, at its core, reality is a fuzzy cloud of ethreal mathematical metaphors.
OK, that's a mouthful.
But if true, it certainly calls for a rethinking of K-12 and college level curricula.
Not that there's anything wrong with students and adults contemplating the age old questions probed by Plato, Shakespeare, Rousseau, and Sartre.
It's just that we can go deeper and farther.
If reality begins as a swirl of multidimensional fields and probability waves which ultimately ( and mysteriously) emerge as entangled atoms, molecules, substances, cells, genes, neurons, and us, we need some new learning structures to allow this knowledge to enter our culture.
If the natural world is better described by fractal sturctures than classical, that should be part of the educational paradigm as well. And if complex structures (like us) which emerge from simpler stuctures (like quarks) cannot be mathematically compared with those simpler structures, we should be aware of that.
Now if you made it this far, you must be thinking, "Wow, that sounds deep".
Sure, but not necessarily difficult to make part of our national curriculum.
Here's how it might go:
Grades
1-6
Reading, Particle Physics, Writing, Mathematics, Arithmetic, Complexity Science .... ....
7-12
The 3 R's, Calculus for Dummies, History, Deep Science for Dummies, Sociology, Entanglement
Government, Chaos, Economics, Complexity, Arts, Transcendence .... ....
Higher Education
Liberal Arts, Physics, Business, Science, Engineering, Art, Economics, Ultimate Concepts
Government, Complexity II, Arts, Actuarial, Law, Public Policy, Unity ... ...
Of course, detailed course content will be critical to a transition to a joint classical-quantum curriculum. Particle physics as introduced to gradeschoolers will be conceptual...what are fields, waves, particles...at an understandable level.
Deep science for junior high and high schoolers will involve beginning to see the connection between the matenatical and scientific structures whihc have ben found to remarkably represent the reality at the core of the atom.
Philosophy at the college level will probe the relationships between metaphors utilized by classical thinkers (Platonic Forms, Kantian Categories, Hegelian Spirit, Sartrean Essence, Smith's Invisible Hand, Rousseau's General Will...) and the metaphors of modern science and mathematics (fields, waves, groups, spaces, fractals, particles, dimensions, lagrangians, symmetry...)
Yes we can.
Lee
Monday, January 5, 2009
A new (2009) Start
Today we will start the process of making this blog coherent. After 38 blogs, it is time for structure. Let's start with a summary of where we are.
The first few blogs focused on the global financial crisis and the fact that policymakers are not aware of or utilizing the best tools available by which to detect and resolve such crises.
Models which have been available for decades could have headed off and mitigated the current crisis if policymakers had had the wisdom and foresight to use them.
These models are being used in places like Santa Fe, Champaign, Ann Arbor, and Boston to solve deep problems. As opposed to the simplistic assumtions used by the Fed and Citibank, these models use the mathematical and computer structures developed in the most complex analysis being done, those being utilized in the area of particle physics.
Rather than assuming a simple world of normal curves and linear relationships, these models can allow reality to define itself. What we find is that much of reality is nonlinear and nonnormal. (As Dick Cheney might say, "Big time non normality and non linearity").
Not that we want to eliminate the use of Modern Portfolio Theory and its components like Black-Scholes and CAPM. Nor do we suggest that traditional econometric modeling has no place. It's just that without the refining power of complexity and actuarial science, they are pretty worthless, as recent and not so recent events have shown.
The next few blogs are kinda fun. The lack of logic used by talking heads and politicians is subjected to a case study, the (hopefully) successful nomination of Caroline Kennedy for New York Senator. The hypocrisy of the political class, particularly Republicans (and their spiritual leader, Tim Lehaye) in expanding government debt and obligations without paying for it is chronicled.
The Great Conversation from Plato to Pirsig is discussed in the context of recent findings in string theory and quantum mechanics. Saintly figures like Martin, Gibran, Jesus, Gandhi, and Wiesel (can you believe Madoff ripped HIM off?) are quoted for their wisdom.
Above all, this initial set of blogs is meant to show that the search for truth, beauty and justice is not only still alive, but well, and that we are closer than we have ever been to the true understanding which is needed for the ultimate unity to become manifest.
The next few blogs will provide structure for the ongoing conversation. We will look at education and how it can be reconstituted to provide real wisdom. We will do the same for politics, sports, and economics.
Then we will begin the journey to truth as laid out in Harmonious Universe...see paradigmactuaries.com.
Lee
The first few blogs focused on the global financial crisis and the fact that policymakers are not aware of or utilizing the best tools available by which to detect and resolve such crises.
Models which have been available for decades could have headed off and mitigated the current crisis if policymakers had had the wisdom and foresight to use them.
These models are being used in places like Santa Fe, Champaign, Ann Arbor, and Boston to solve deep problems. As opposed to the simplistic assumtions used by the Fed and Citibank, these models use the mathematical and computer structures developed in the most complex analysis being done, those being utilized in the area of particle physics.
Rather than assuming a simple world of normal curves and linear relationships, these models can allow reality to define itself. What we find is that much of reality is nonlinear and nonnormal. (As Dick Cheney might say, "Big time non normality and non linearity").
Not that we want to eliminate the use of Modern Portfolio Theory and its components like Black-Scholes and CAPM. Nor do we suggest that traditional econometric modeling has no place. It's just that without the refining power of complexity and actuarial science, they are pretty worthless, as recent and not so recent events have shown.
The next few blogs are kinda fun. The lack of logic used by talking heads and politicians is subjected to a case study, the (hopefully) successful nomination of Caroline Kennedy for New York Senator. The hypocrisy of the political class, particularly Republicans (and their spiritual leader, Tim Lehaye) in expanding government debt and obligations without paying for it is chronicled.
The Great Conversation from Plato to Pirsig is discussed in the context of recent findings in string theory and quantum mechanics. Saintly figures like Martin, Gibran, Jesus, Gandhi, and Wiesel (can you believe Madoff ripped HIM off?) are quoted for their wisdom.
Above all, this initial set of blogs is meant to show that the search for truth, beauty and justice is not only still alive, but well, and that we are closer than we have ever been to the true understanding which is needed for the ultimate unity to become manifest.
The next few blogs will provide structure for the ongoing conversation. We will look at education and how it can be reconstituted to provide real wisdom. We will do the same for politics, sports, and economics.
Then we will begin the journey to truth as laid out in Harmonious Universe...see paradigmactuaries.com.
Lee
Saturday, January 3, 2009
paradigmactuaries.com
The website noted in the title to this blog is complementary to the blog. They are vehicles for communicating a new vision of reality.
The book, Harmonious Universe, still to be published, describes a worldview emanating from discoveries in particle physics, complexity science, and actuarial science which provides a roadmap to unity.
Starting with the fundamental constituents of nature, the waves, fields, particles, and other components of the atom, we build up to society and its institutions with mathematics and metaphor.
This is part of a conversation which began before Plato, and will continue beyond us. It is about the eternal notions of justice, truth, beauty, love, and being.
The website describes the book and some related thoughts. Included are descriptions of analytical stuctures which have been developed to better understand our economy.
We now have 36 blogs discussing various aspects of the new perspective. Some, like Republican Think Tank are satirical. Some, like The Science of Philosophy, are academic.
In all cases, the idea is the same, probe reality to discover truth from which justice and beauty can emerge.
In Abraham, Martin and John, we look at how Martin Luther King and Kahill Gibran probe truth and set the stage for positive aspects of the 1960's.
In The Edge of Chaos, we talk of an Economic Manhattan Project to get the US economy back on track.
In The Math of Reality, we consider how institutions like the New England Complex Systems Institute and the Santa Fe Institute are moving science toward more holistic modeling. By combining the new data mining, data visualizaton and analytical structures with those of actuarial science we see how traditional modeling relative to public policy issues can be enhanced and made more valuable.
The remaining blogs continue to expand the vision . The goal is to have the blog address all issues of Harmonious Universe and put them into a lasting perspective.
Along the way we hope to find some truth of our own.
Lee
The book, Harmonious Universe, still to be published, describes a worldview emanating from discoveries in particle physics, complexity science, and actuarial science which provides a roadmap to unity.
Starting with the fundamental constituents of nature, the waves, fields, particles, and other components of the atom, we build up to society and its institutions with mathematics and metaphor.
This is part of a conversation which began before Plato, and will continue beyond us. It is about the eternal notions of justice, truth, beauty, love, and being.
The website describes the book and some related thoughts. Included are descriptions of analytical stuctures which have been developed to better understand our economy.
We now have 36 blogs discussing various aspects of the new perspective. Some, like Republican Think Tank are satirical. Some, like The Science of Philosophy, are academic.
In all cases, the idea is the same, probe reality to discover truth from which justice and beauty can emerge.
In Abraham, Martin and John, we look at how Martin Luther King and Kahill Gibran probe truth and set the stage for positive aspects of the 1960's.
In The Edge of Chaos, we talk of an Economic Manhattan Project to get the US economy back on track.
In The Math of Reality, we consider how institutions like the New England Complex Systems Institute and the Santa Fe Institute are moving science toward more holistic modeling. By combining the new data mining, data visualizaton and analytical structures with those of actuarial science we see how traditional modeling relative to public policy issues can be enhanced and made more valuable.
The remaining blogs continue to expand the vision . The goal is to have the blog address all issues of Harmonious Universe and put them into a lasting perspective.
Along the way we hope to find some truth of our own.
Lee
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