For months I have been trying to build a metaphysic 14o characters at a time.
How do we synthesize Platonic Forms, Quantum Science, Fractal Geometry, Complex Emergence, Actuarial Science, String Theory, Healthcare Reform, Econometrics, CAPM, Hilbert Space and Schrodinger Waves 140 characters at a time?
Go to twitter.com, philosophize and see.
Showing posts with label LHC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LHC. Show all posts
Friday, August 28, 2009
Monday, May 11, 2009
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Obama's First Stumble
It had to happen.
It's kind of a relief.
Nobody's perfect.
The bailout/stimulus proposal which came out this week won't work!
It's not Barack's fault. He needs to rely on his advisers even as he occasionally transcends them.
It's really not their fault either. They don't know any better. No one told them that their failed models need updating.
But it'a too important to ignore. Between the Federal Budget and potential stimuli/bailouts, there are trillions of dollars at stake. More importantly, there is the opportunity to transform the economy into one that is sustainable and more just.
We are at the edge of a precipice that we created, and we only get one chance to step back and save the economy.
Does it make sense to continue to spend government money based on analysis which has proven to be wrong so many times?
Such a model can supplement existing economic, financial and public policy models in determining where spending will have optimal effect, what the uncertainties are, how to make adjustments dynamically, how to handle interactions, and all the other factors existing models ignore or miss.
The best minds in Washington are doing their best, but is isn't good enough. Some of the programs proposed will have some positive impact, but no one knows how much, or whether more innovative approaches would have much more effect.
What if we find, that using the best analytics possible, the impact of bailout and stimulus activity can be increased 100 fold or more over the next decade?
Should we at least consider it?
The global economy is collapsing.
Social Security is effectively bankrupt.
The healthcare system is crumbling under its own weight.
The deficit is dangerous, particularly if forecasts of the future US economy are distorted.
None of these issues are adequately addressed in proposals made to date.
The Federal Budget, along with all bailout and stimulation activity is a complex system which impacts a web of other complex systems. Government spending impacts the healthcare system, the infrastructure system, the prison system, the retirement system, the welfare system, the education system, and a variey of other systems, not to mention foreign relations.
Each of these systems has subsystems like housing, transportation, energy, goods, services, environment, medicine, and so on.
No model in place in Washington can deal with the interconnections, demographics, uncertainties, management, and data requirements of such a complex network.
We can transform the economy successfully . We can evolve into a country with sustainable and just results.
We have the intellectual resources.
We have the technical resources.
Yes we do.
Lee
It's kind of a relief.
Nobody's perfect.
The bailout/stimulus proposal which came out this week won't work!
It's not Barack's fault. He needs to rely on his advisers even as he occasionally transcends them.
It's really not their fault either. They don't know any better. No one told them that their failed models need updating.
But it'a too important to ignore. Between the Federal Budget and potential stimuli/bailouts, there are trillions of dollars at stake. More importantly, there is the opportunity to transform the economy into one that is sustainable and more just.
We are at the edge of a precipice that we created, and we only get one chance to step back and save the economy.
Does it make sense to continue to spend government money based on analysis which has proven to be wrong so many times?
Would it make sense to allocate a small portion of new government spending on the development of a new structure for public policy analysis which has proven itself many times?
The answers are obvious.
There is a team of the best minds in the fields of particle physics, complexity science, actuarial science, and computer science ready to be assembled. They can build a model with the best data mining, enterprise risk management, dynamic financial analysis, data visualization, demographic, probability, and management analytics available.Such a model can supplement existing economic, financial and public policy models in determining where spending will have optimal effect, what the uncertainties are, how to make adjustments dynamically, how to handle interactions, and all the other factors existing models ignore or miss.
The best minds in Washington are doing their best, but is isn't good enough. Some of the programs proposed will have some positive impact, but no one knows how much, or whether more innovative approaches would have much more effect.
What if we find, that using the best analytics possible, the impact of bailout and stimulus activity can be increased 100 fold or more over the next decade?
Should we at least consider it?
The global economy is collapsing.
Social Security is effectively bankrupt.
The healthcare system is crumbling under its own weight.
The deficit is dangerous, particularly if forecasts of the future US economy are distorted.
None of these issues are adequately addressed in proposals made to date.
The Federal Budget, along with all bailout and stimulation activity is a complex system which impacts a web of other complex systems. Government spending impacts the healthcare system, the infrastructure system, the prison system, the retirement system, the welfare system, the education system, and a variey of other systems, not to mention foreign relations.
Each of these systems has subsystems like housing, transportation, energy, goods, services, environment, medicine, and so on.
No model in place in Washington can deal with the interconnections, demographics, uncertainties, management, and data requirements of such a complex network.
We can transform the economy successfully . We can evolve into a country with sustainable and just results.
We have the intellectual resources.
We have the technical resources.
Yes we do.
Lee
Saturday, January 17, 2009
The Obama Economic Plan-An Agent Based Model
Our new President will be sworn in Tuesday.
His first priority will be to "fix the economy".
Unless someone in his circle knows about agent based modeling and other complexity science and actuarial tools, he will fail.
The current plan appears to consist of the following as the next "phase" of the "stimulus/bailout":
$550 billion for infrastructure, science, energy, and education programs over two years.
$275 billion in tax cuts for businesses and consumers.
Sounds good.
But has anyone done a cost-benefit analysis of how this spending in conjunction with the other $2.8 trillion in government spending will transition us toward a sustainable future of fiscal wealth and harmony?
We want it to be easy. Just pick out a few programs and, boom, economic nirvana.
Not.
We've tried that.
Now we are $60 trillion in the hole (Don't forget Social Security, Medicare, Veterans benefits...), are adding about a $ Trillion a year, and GNP is tottering as global resources decline.
If some measure of GNP doesn't start to grow dramatically, game over.
Happily, there is hope. In the labs of Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Batavia, Champaign, Ann Arbor...models have been developed which can definitively show how expenditures can ripple through a global economy and which can test alternative approaches.
We can use these models to find stimulus and bailout programs which could actually create an engine of economic growth for the U.S.
These models didn't exist in the 1930's, so trial and error had to happen in the real economy. We can now simulate the economy and test various scenarios. That way we can have a sense of long term welfare effects of whatever expenditures are deemed worthy.
Isn't it worth the effort?
The alternative is to keep randomly throwing money at a system which has proven itself incapable of meaningful transition.
Our production systems, housing systems, transportation systems, healthcare systems, financial systems, education systems, welfare systems...are all interconnected.
All must be transformed simultaneously for real change to occur and real welfare to be increased
Are we up to the task?
Yes we are.
For more go to paradigmactuaries.com
Lee
His first priority will be to "fix the economy".
Unless someone in his circle knows about agent based modeling and other complexity science and actuarial tools, he will fail.
The current plan appears to consist of the following as the next "phase" of the "stimulus/bailout":
$550 billion for infrastructure, science, energy, and education programs over two years.
$275 billion in tax cuts for businesses and consumers.
Sounds good.
But has anyone done a cost-benefit analysis of how this spending in conjunction with the other $2.8 trillion in government spending will transition us toward a sustainable future of fiscal wealth and harmony?
We want it to be easy. Just pick out a few programs and, boom, economic nirvana.
Not.
We've tried that.
Now we are $60 trillion in the hole (Don't forget Social Security, Medicare, Veterans benefits...), are adding about a $ Trillion a year, and GNP is tottering as global resources decline.
If some measure of GNP doesn't start to grow dramatically, game over.
Happily, there is hope. In the labs of Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Batavia, Champaign, Ann Arbor...models have been developed which can definitively show how expenditures can ripple through a global economy and which can test alternative approaches.
We can use these models to find stimulus and bailout programs which could actually create an engine of economic growth for the U.S.
These models didn't exist in the 1930's, so trial and error had to happen in the real economy. We can now simulate the economy and test various scenarios. That way we can have a sense of long term welfare effects of whatever expenditures are deemed worthy.
Isn't it worth the effort?
The alternative is to keep randomly throwing money at a system which has proven itself incapable of meaningful transition.
Our production systems, housing systems, transportation systems, healthcare systems, financial systems, education systems, welfare systems...are all interconnected.
All must be transformed simultaneously for real change to occur and real welfare to be increased
Are we up to the task?
Yes we are.
For more go to paradigmactuaries.com
Lee
Saturday, January 3, 2009
paradigmactuaries.com
The website noted in the title to this blog is complementary to the blog. They are vehicles for communicating a new vision of reality.
The book, Harmonious Universe, still to be published, describes a worldview emanating from discoveries in particle physics, complexity science, and actuarial science which provides a roadmap to unity.
Starting with the fundamental constituents of nature, the waves, fields, particles, and other components of the atom, we build up to society and its institutions with mathematics and metaphor.
This is part of a conversation which began before Plato, and will continue beyond us. It is about the eternal notions of justice, truth, beauty, love, and being.
The website describes the book and some related thoughts. Included are descriptions of analytical stuctures which have been developed to better understand our economy.
We now have 36 blogs discussing various aspects of the new perspective. Some, like Republican Think Tank are satirical. Some, like The Science of Philosophy, are academic.
In all cases, the idea is the same, probe reality to discover truth from which justice and beauty can emerge.
In Abraham, Martin and John, we look at how Martin Luther King and Kahill Gibran probe truth and set the stage for positive aspects of the 1960's.
In The Edge of Chaos, we talk of an Economic Manhattan Project to get the US economy back on track.
In The Math of Reality, we consider how institutions like the New England Complex Systems Institute and the Santa Fe Institute are moving science toward more holistic modeling. By combining the new data mining, data visualizaton and analytical structures with those of actuarial science we see how traditional modeling relative to public policy issues can be enhanced and made more valuable.
The remaining blogs continue to expand the vision . The goal is to have the blog address all issues of Harmonious Universe and put them into a lasting perspective.
Along the way we hope to find some truth of our own.
Lee
The book, Harmonious Universe, still to be published, describes a worldview emanating from discoveries in particle physics, complexity science, and actuarial science which provides a roadmap to unity.
Starting with the fundamental constituents of nature, the waves, fields, particles, and other components of the atom, we build up to society and its institutions with mathematics and metaphor.
This is part of a conversation which began before Plato, and will continue beyond us. It is about the eternal notions of justice, truth, beauty, love, and being.
The website describes the book and some related thoughts. Included are descriptions of analytical stuctures which have been developed to better understand our economy.
We now have 36 blogs discussing various aspects of the new perspective. Some, like Republican Think Tank are satirical. Some, like The Science of Philosophy, are academic.
In all cases, the idea is the same, probe reality to discover truth from which justice and beauty can emerge.
In Abraham, Martin and John, we look at how Martin Luther King and Kahill Gibran probe truth and set the stage for positive aspects of the 1960's.
In The Edge of Chaos, we talk of an Economic Manhattan Project to get the US economy back on track.
In The Math of Reality, we consider how institutions like the New England Complex Systems Institute and the Santa Fe Institute are moving science toward more holistic modeling. By combining the new data mining, data visualizaton and analytical structures with those of actuarial science we see how traditional modeling relative to public policy issues can be enhanced and made more valuable.
The remaining blogs continue to expand the vision . The goal is to have the blog address all issues of Harmonious Universe and put them into a lasting perspective.
Along the way we hope to find some truth of our own.
Lee
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Merry Christmas
A time to celebrate peace, joy, love, forgiveness, compassion.
Love thy neighbor as thyself.
Be a good Samaritan.
Don't be a hypocritical Pharisee.
Cast the first stone...IF you're without sin.
Good words for politicians to live by.
Amazingly, those who profess their faith grandly seem to follow none of the above. They haven't met a war they don't like or a poor person they do.
They reject anyone they perceive as unlike them, and project god in their own image.
They cast stones in every direction while sinning in the dark shadows of their miserable lives.
They love theoretical people, but walk by those suffering in front of them.
But, hey, it's the season of joy, and we have a new President.
Three cheers for the American dream.
Lee
Love thy neighbor as thyself.
Be a good Samaritan.
Don't be a hypocritical Pharisee.
Cast the first stone...IF you're without sin.
Good words for politicians to live by.
Amazingly, those who profess their faith grandly seem to follow none of the above. They haven't met a war they don't like or a poor person they do.
They reject anyone they perceive as unlike them, and project god in their own image.
They cast stones in every direction while sinning in the dark shadows of their miserable lives.
They love theoretical people, but walk by those suffering in front of them.
But, hey, it's the season of joy, and we have a new President.
Three cheers for the American dream.
Lee
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Bailouts and Stimuli for Paradigm Actuaries
Paradigm Actuaries is an actuarial consulting firm and think tank devoted to the application of advanced scientific thinking to the resolution of deep commercial and governmental problems.
The true U.S. government deficit is approaching $60 trillion. Bailout and simulus packages totaling trillions of dollars will be needed to put America back on the path to prosperity.
Here's what I could do with $4 million, a mere 4/10000 % of $1 trillion, using a team of geniuses currently left unemployed by an Administration which rewards ignorance and punishes competence and integrity:
1. Solve the healthcare crisis by building an Agent Based Model which shows the optimal flows of funds and services.
2. Solve the budget crisis by showing optimal flows of revenues and expenditures over time probabilistically.
3. Stimulate the economy by showing where bailout and stimulus money in conjunction with existing government expenditure, would have the most impact on long term national welfare.
4. Resolve the global economic crisis by introducing financial models based on complexity and actuarial science which replace the standard failed models of the past.
5. Bring about a harmonious universe by demonstrating how expenditures on the deep sciences will uncover the deepest secret of life, that everything is connected in a web of unity.
For more, go to my website, paradigmactuaries.com.
Lee
The true U.S. government deficit is approaching $60 trillion. Bailout and simulus packages totaling trillions of dollars will be needed to put America back on the path to prosperity.
Here's what I could do with $4 million, a mere 4/10000 % of $1 trillion, using a team of geniuses currently left unemployed by an Administration which rewards ignorance and punishes competence and integrity:
1. Solve the healthcare crisis by building an Agent Based Model which shows the optimal flows of funds and services.
2. Solve the budget crisis by showing optimal flows of revenues and expenditures over time probabilistically.
3. Stimulate the economy by showing where bailout and stimulus money in conjunction with existing government expenditure, would have the most impact on long term national welfare.
4. Resolve the global economic crisis by introducing financial models based on complexity and actuarial science which replace the standard failed models of the past.
5. Bring about a harmonious universe by demonstrating how expenditures on the deep sciences will uncover the deepest secret of life, that everything is connected in a web of unity.
For more, go to my website, paradigmactuaries.com.
Lee
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Christmas 2008 Slate Stories
Like the Huffington Post, Slate covers the issues of the day.
Huckabee, Ashcroft, Madoff, Blago, Warren, Mueller, Craig...
That's quite a lineup...A phony Evangelical who pretends to be hip, an uptight hypocrite who wants to end freedom as we know it, a man so greedy he robbed a saint who survived the holocaust, a politician so self-absorbed he's willing to take the state of Illinois down with him, a minister who tries to straddle condemnation with forgiveness, an incompetent pedant, and a perverted Senator who claims to be (he may actually be right) a typical Republican guardian of traditional values...
Of course the good news is that soon we will have a President who cares about art, science, the environment and justice. Hopefully we will have a Senator from New York from a family that personifies hard earned hope.
Developments in the sciences have the potentionl of a transformation of the global economy which promises a new level of prosperity. The LHC may find the elusive "God Particle" for which Fermilab has been searching That may be the key to understanding deep secrets of reality which could illuminate a path to harmony.
Combined with advances in computer technology being made in places like the Santa Fe Institute and the impact of Obama's stimulus plan, we may be on the way to a growth economy the likes of which we have not seen for decades.
Yes we can.
Lee
Huckabee, Ashcroft, Madoff, Blago, Warren, Mueller, Craig...
That's quite a lineup...A phony Evangelical who pretends to be hip, an uptight hypocrite who wants to end freedom as we know it, a man so greedy he robbed a saint who survived the holocaust, a politician so self-absorbed he's willing to take the state of Illinois down with him, a minister who tries to straddle condemnation with forgiveness, an incompetent pedant, and a perverted Senator who claims to be (he may actually be right) a typical Republican guardian of traditional values...
Of course the good news is that soon we will have a President who cares about art, science, the environment and justice. Hopefully we will have a Senator from New York from a family that personifies hard earned hope.
Developments in the sciences have the potentionl of a transformation of the global economy which promises a new level of prosperity. The LHC may find the elusive "God Particle" for which Fermilab has been searching That may be the key to understanding deep secrets of reality which could illuminate a path to harmony.
Combined with advances in computer technology being made in places like the Santa Fe Institute and the impact of Obama's stimulus plan, we may be on the way to a growth economy the likes of which we have not seen for decades.
Yes we can.
Lee
Sunday, December 14, 2008
December Sunday
It's Sunday again...Home of the talkingheadosphere. The blogosphere is becoming the Blagosphere.
Who knew? A crooked politicican. Next thing you know we'll find a greedy businessman. Or a stupid athlete. Or an entertainer with a drug problem.
As we watch the wizards of pontification droll on about the being and nothingness of the political sphere it is interesting to raise our heads to listen to a more promising group of thinkers.
The January 2009 Discover issue about the Year in Science has articles about medicine, physics, energy, and astronomy. These people actually back their arguments with relevant facts.
Take the physicists (please:).
Turns out that The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) which debuted in the fall of 2008 is looking for the God Particle. One can only imagine that this is harder than finding a crooked politician.
In addition to possibly swallowing us all into a massive black hole, the LHC may find supersymmetric particles That would be a huge step toward a Theory of Everything (TOE).
Now that seems like something worth a little time and money.
Of course, the Bush Administratoin is so busy trying to implement the vision of Tim Lehaye that it has no time or resources for such drivel. They even want to cut back on such basic research in places like Fermlab, Argonne and Los Alamos.
This of course is not the first Bush Administration to take on such waste. Daddy killed a facility in Texas which might have already found the secret of the universe. Apparantly it was too close to one of the landing paths he wanted to preseve for his subsequent skydiving.
Many people only care, of course, if they think a TOE would help them personally. They have perhaps forgottten (or God forbid never know) that reseach like this has been responsible for much of the advance made by the human species in recent years.
Health, wealth, the environment and defense are all beholden to advances which have been made in esoteric areas like quantum mechanics and complexity science.
Anyway, like you, I'm ready to settle in and start to absorb the pearls of wisdom which will be offered today by such scholars as Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, and Mitch McConnell.
Lee
Who knew? A crooked politicican. Next thing you know we'll find a greedy businessman. Or a stupid athlete. Or an entertainer with a drug problem.
As we watch the wizards of pontification droll on about the being and nothingness of the political sphere it is interesting to raise our heads to listen to a more promising group of thinkers.
The January 2009 Discover issue about the Year in Science has articles about medicine, physics, energy, and astronomy. These people actually back their arguments with relevant facts.
Take the physicists (please:).
Turns out that The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) which debuted in the fall of 2008 is looking for the God Particle. One can only imagine that this is harder than finding a crooked politician.
In addition to possibly swallowing us all into a massive black hole, the LHC may find supersymmetric particles That would be a huge step toward a Theory of Everything (TOE).
Now that seems like something worth a little time and money.
Of course, the Bush Administratoin is so busy trying to implement the vision of Tim Lehaye that it has no time or resources for such drivel. They even want to cut back on such basic research in places like Fermlab, Argonne and Los Alamos.
This of course is not the first Bush Administration to take on such waste. Daddy killed a facility in Texas which might have already found the secret of the universe. Apparantly it was too close to one of the landing paths he wanted to preseve for his subsequent skydiving.
Many people only care, of course, if they think a TOE would help them personally. They have perhaps forgottten (or God forbid never know) that reseach like this has been responsible for much of the advance made by the human species in recent years.
Health, wealth, the environment and defense are all beholden to advances which have been made in esoteric areas like quantum mechanics and complexity science.
Anyway, like you, I'm ready to settle in and start to absorb the pearls of wisdom which will be offered today by such scholars as Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, and Mitch McConnell.
Lee
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