A billion here...
Now the details of the stimulus package are out. Will it work? Has it been tested?Does anyone know?
Complicated economic/mathematical models have been run. But aren't they the ones which got us here?
Do they account for black swans? tipping points? cascades? power laws? multifractals? fat tails?cluster correlations? phase transitions? interactions? demographics? uncertainties? time frames?
The fact is that there are data mining, agent based, actuarially sound, data visualization, econometric tools available by which to truly test and monitor any stimulus scenario developed. The anticipated impact on the global and US economies as well as the individual sectors and businesses could be forecast. The options most likely to have the sustainable, transformative effect desired could be chosen and monitored and adjusted as needed.
How much more confidence would be inspired if officials could testify..."We anticipate (based on the best data and analysis availble) that this stimulus package will have an impact on GNP of $500 billlion in the first year with a 92% probability it will be at least $400 billion...the multipliers associated with the chosen components of the package are the largest of all those tested..."
Here are the details of the ($787 b) stimulus package passed this weekend:
$506 billion in spending
-$141b healthcare
-$92 b infrastructure
-$87b education
-$67b welfare
-$41b energy
-$10b housing
-$6b science
-$7b security
-$55b other
$281 billion tax credits
This money could be targeted and monitored at the micro level to have maximum impact. For example, the science money could to where it would have a multiplier of 22 or 1.
From the labs of Los Alamos to the campuses of Boston, the tools needed to assure that the stimulus works have already been developed. All we need to do is integrate them with those currently being used.
Yes we can
Lee
Showing posts with label Quarks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quarks. Show all posts
Monday, February 16, 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
The Info Mesa
Ed Regis' book shows how Santa Fe became the nerve center of a movement which is changing the world. He documents the rise of dozens of companies which came to apply new methodologies, complexity science, chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics, artificial life, and so on to real world problems.
He traces the movement from Los Alamos where computer technology had exploded to deal with the complexity of nuclear physics to the Santa Fe Institute where an interdiscipinary approach to scientific research blossomed. The Institute would, "...blur the edges, merge the disciplines into a unique synthesis that was greater than the sum of its parts...large portions of empirical reality had been reduced to data...atoms, molecules, chemicals, proteins, genes cells...the planet itself...".
Years earlier, Mitchell Waldrop had written of the dawn of the complexity movement. Neoclassical economics had reduced "...the rich complexity of the world into a narrow set of abstract principles...when philosophers saw the cosmos as a ...vast clockwork device...governed by the Invisible Hand...small events could have large consequences..."
If there was ever a time for interdisciplinary, rigorous, creative, quantum thinking it is now. World markets are collapsing and entire countries are on the brink of collapse. Stimulus packages are being passed with little or no underestanding of how they might work.
Using the perspective of complexity science, levened by actuarial science, policymakers can test alternative approaches against alternative scenarios and dynamically choose those most likely to succeed. They could answer questions like, "What is the likelihood that the stimulus will raise the standard of living 30% within 9 months, and 50% after 18 months?"
Wouldn't that create more confidence than the current mantra," No one knows what to do...or what will happen if we do do"
The future of the US and world economies may be at stake. We may only get one chance.
We must do it right.
Yes we can.
Lee
He traces the movement from Los Alamos where computer technology had exploded to deal with the complexity of nuclear physics to the Santa Fe Institute where an interdiscipinary approach to scientific research blossomed. The Institute would, "...blur the edges, merge the disciplines into a unique synthesis that was greater than the sum of its parts...large portions of empirical reality had been reduced to data...atoms, molecules, chemicals, proteins, genes cells...the planet itself...".
Years earlier, Mitchell Waldrop had written of the dawn of the complexity movement. Neoclassical economics had reduced "...the rich complexity of the world into a narrow set of abstract principles...when philosophers saw the cosmos as a ...vast clockwork device...governed by the Invisible Hand...small events could have large consequences..."
If there was ever a time for interdisciplinary, rigorous, creative, quantum thinking it is now. World markets are collapsing and entire countries are on the brink of collapse. Stimulus packages are being passed with little or no underestanding of how they might work.
Using the perspective of complexity science, levened by actuarial science, policymakers can test alternative approaches against alternative scenarios and dynamically choose those most likely to succeed. They could answer questions like, "What is the likelihood that the stimulus will raise the standard of living 30% within 9 months, and 50% after 18 months?"
Wouldn't that create more confidence than the current mantra," No one knows what to do...or what will happen if we do do"
The future of the US and world economies may be at stake. We may only get one chance.
We must do it right.
Yes we can.
Lee
The Worldly Philosophers
Economists are on the hotspot regarding getting us out of the global economic mess.
Unfortunately, the profession as a whole is as clueless as they have been in all the crises of the past few decades. They refuse to ignore the power laws, cascades, feedback loops, adaptivity, demographics, Black Swan, Tipping Point, phase transitions, symmetry breaking, uncertainty, temporality, interactivity, multifractal, cluster correlation nature of global finance and economics.
As a result, when anything happens which hasn't happened in the same way before, such as mortgage derivative collapse, international turmoil, terrorism, natural catastrophes and so on, their models miss it and we all suffer.
This is a tragedy because models exist which can handle unforseen events, cluster correlations, demographic shifts, interactions, uncertainty, missing data, and so on.
Physicists have teased out of subatomic behavior the deep patterns which drive physical reality . These patterns involve vibrating particles with wavelike characteristics, clouds of fields connecting the energy patterns, dimensions which explain probabilistic behavior and other activity which transcends human understanding.
Shouldn't they be part of the team charged with helping us jumpstart the global economy?
If you say well, how does subatomic activity impact the global economy?
That is where complexity science comes in.
But, you say, what about social security, healthcare, finance, insurance, and risk?
That is where actuarial science comes in.
We can build a stimulus package which will truly transform the economy in a sustainable way.
We can test and monitor the flows over time and make adjustments as needed.
Yes we can.
Lee
Unfortunately, the profession as a whole is as clueless as they have been in all the crises of the past few decades. They refuse to ignore the power laws, cascades, feedback loops, adaptivity, demographics, Black Swan, Tipping Point, phase transitions, symmetry breaking, uncertainty, temporality, interactivity, multifractal, cluster correlation nature of global finance and economics.
As a result, when anything happens which hasn't happened in the same way before, such as mortgage derivative collapse, international turmoil, terrorism, natural catastrophes and so on, their models miss it and we all suffer.
This is a tragedy because models exist which can handle unforseen events, cluster correlations, demographic shifts, interactions, uncertainty, missing data, and so on.
Physicists have teased out of subatomic behavior the deep patterns which drive physical reality . These patterns involve vibrating particles with wavelike characteristics, clouds of fields connecting the energy patterns, dimensions which explain probabilistic behavior and other activity which transcends human understanding.
Shouldn't they be part of the team charged with helping us jumpstart the global economy?
If you say well, how does subatomic activity impact the global economy?
That is where complexity science comes in.
But, you say, what about social security, healthcare, finance, insurance, and risk?
That is where actuarial science comes in.
We can build a stimulus package which will truly transform the economy in a sustainable way.
We can test and monitor the flows over time and make adjustments as needed.
Yes we can.
Lee
Saturday, January 17, 2009
The Obama Economic Plan-An Agent Based Model
Our new President will be sworn in Tuesday.
His first priority will be to "fix the economy".
Unless someone in his circle knows about agent based modeling and other complexity science and actuarial tools, he will fail.
The current plan appears to consist of the following as the next "phase" of the "stimulus/bailout":
$550 billion for infrastructure, science, energy, and education programs over two years.
$275 billion in tax cuts for businesses and consumers.
Sounds good.
But has anyone done a cost-benefit analysis of how this spending in conjunction with the other $2.8 trillion in government spending will transition us toward a sustainable future of fiscal wealth and harmony?
We want it to be easy. Just pick out a few programs and, boom, economic nirvana.
Not.
We've tried that.
Now we are $60 trillion in the hole (Don't forget Social Security, Medicare, Veterans benefits...), are adding about a $ Trillion a year, and GNP is tottering as global resources decline.
If some measure of GNP doesn't start to grow dramatically, game over.
Happily, there is hope. In the labs of Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Batavia, Champaign, Ann Arbor...models have been developed which can definitively show how expenditures can ripple through a global economy and which can test alternative approaches.
We can use these models to find stimulus and bailout programs which could actually create an engine of economic growth for the U.S.
These models didn't exist in the 1930's, so trial and error had to happen in the real economy. We can now simulate the economy and test various scenarios. That way we can have a sense of long term welfare effects of whatever expenditures are deemed worthy.
Isn't it worth the effort?
The alternative is to keep randomly throwing money at a system which has proven itself incapable of meaningful transition.
Our production systems, housing systems, transportation systems, healthcare systems, financial systems, education systems, welfare systems...are all interconnected.
All must be transformed simultaneously for real change to occur and real welfare to be increased
Are we up to the task?
Yes we are.
For more go to paradigmactuaries.com
Lee
His first priority will be to "fix the economy".
Unless someone in his circle knows about agent based modeling and other complexity science and actuarial tools, he will fail.
The current plan appears to consist of the following as the next "phase" of the "stimulus/bailout":
$550 billion for infrastructure, science, energy, and education programs over two years.
$275 billion in tax cuts for businesses and consumers.
Sounds good.
But has anyone done a cost-benefit analysis of how this spending in conjunction with the other $2.8 trillion in government spending will transition us toward a sustainable future of fiscal wealth and harmony?
We want it to be easy. Just pick out a few programs and, boom, economic nirvana.
Not.
We've tried that.
Now we are $60 trillion in the hole (Don't forget Social Security, Medicare, Veterans benefits...), are adding about a $ Trillion a year, and GNP is tottering as global resources decline.
If some measure of GNP doesn't start to grow dramatically, game over.
Happily, there is hope. In the labs of Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Batavia, Champaign, Ann Arbor...models have been developed which can definitively show how expenditures can ripple through a global economy and which can test alternative approaches.
We can use these models to find stimulus and bailout programs which could actually create an engine of economic growth for the U.S.
These models didn't exist in the 1930's, so trial and error had to happen in the real economy. We can now simulate the economy and test various scenarios. That way we can have a sense of long term welfare effects of whatever expenditures are deemed worthy.
Isn't it worth the effort?
The alternative is to keep randomly throwing money at a system which has proven itself incapable of meaningful transition.
Our production systems, housing systems, transportation systems, healthcare systems, financial systems, education systems, welfare systems...are all interconnected.
All must be transformed simultaneously for real change to occur and real welfare to be increased
Are we up to the task?
Yes we are.
For more go to paradigmactuaries.com
Lee
Friday, January 2, 2009
Abraham, Martin & John
Martin said, "An individual has not started living until (he) can rise above the narrow confines of (his) individualist concerns to the broader concerns of all humanity..."
He also said, "Love is the only force capable of transforming an enemy into a friend."
Kahlil Gibran said, "Life is that which we see and experience through the spirit; but the world around us we come to know through our understanding and reason."
He also said, "We are naught but frail atoms in the heaven of the infinite...If we suffer, the pain lies not in our wounds but in the very heart of Nature."
Are we ready for such words of wisdom...inspiration after decades of dreary platitudes?
Abraham, Martin and John made us feel hopeful, joyful, alive.
The dream died in 1968, but seems alive as we enter 2009.
Can we dream of a world of compassion, wisdom, truth and hope?
Will our new President repair broken world alliances, ecosystems, economic webs, minds and bodies?
Do we have the will to restore the American dream which was launched by the sacrifices of George, Thomas, and Benjamin?
Can we show the courage to leave the world a little better than we found it?
Yes we can.
Lee
He also said, "Love is the only force capable of transforming an enemy into a friend."
Kahlil Gibran said, "Life is that which we see and experience through the spirit; but the world around us we come to know through our understanding and reason."
He also said, "We are naught but frail atoms in the heaven of the infinite...If we suffer, the pain lies not in our wounds but in the very heart of Nature."
Are we ready for such words of wisdom...inspiration after decades of dreary platitudes?
Abraham, Martin and John made us feel hopeful, joyful, alive.
The dream died in 1968, but seems alive as we enter 2009.
Can we dream of a world of compassion, wisdom, truth and hope?
Will our new President repair broken world alliances, ecosystems, economic webs, minds and bodies?
Do we have the will to restore the American dream which was launched by the sacrifices of George, Thomas, and Benjamin?
Can we show the courage to leave the world a little better than we found it?
Yes we can.
Lee
Friday, November 28, 2008
Obama and Harmonious Universe
Not since 1968 has there been so much hope for the world.
Amidst the terror and economic devastation there is a sense that we can transcend and again become compassionate and intelligent world citizens.
Babies still smile and the birds sing. The stars still hang in the sky.
In particle physics we have found that at the core we are all composed of transcendent, interconnected probability waves suspended in multidimensional fields of froth.
Strings, quarks, electrons, all metaphors for the notion that at the core all is symmetric.
In politics an American President-Elect of intellect and wisdom.
In economics, models incorporating analytics and computer power which can replace the failed models of the past.
Get on board...it will be a lovely ride.
Lee
Amidst the terror and economic devastation there is a sense that we can transcend and again become compassionate and intelligent world citizens.
Babies still smile and the birds sing. The stars still hang in the sky.
In particle physics we have found that at the core we are all composed of transcendent, interconnected probability waves suspended in multidimensional fields of froth.
Strings, quarks, electrons, all metaphors for the notion that at the core all is symmetric.
In politics an American President-Elect of intellect and wisdom.
In economics, models incorporating analytics and computer power which can replace the failed models of the past.
Get on board...it will be a lovely ride.
Lee
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