Friday, February 13, 2009

The Worldly Philosophers

Economists are on the hotspot regarding getting us out of the global economic mess.

Unfortunately, the profession as a whole is as clueless as they have been in all the crises of the past few decades. They refuse to ignore the power laws, cascades, feedback loops, adaptivity, demographics, Black Swan, Tipping Point, phase transitions, symmetry breaking, uncertainty, temporality, interactivity, multifractal, cluster correlation nature of global finance and economics.

As a result, when anything happens which hasn't happened in the same way before, such as mortgage derivative collapse, international turmoil, terrorism, natural catastrophes and so on, their models miss it and we all suffer.

This is a tragedy because models exist which can handle unforseen events, cluster correlations, demographic shifts, interactions, uncertainty, missing data, and so on.

Physicists have teased out of subatomic behavior the deep patterns which drive physical reality . These patterns involve vibrating particles with wavelike characteristics, clouds of fields connecting the energy patterns, dimensions which explain probabilistic behavior and other activity which transcends human understanding.

Shouldn't they be part of the team charged with helping us jumpstart the global economy?

If you say well, how does subatomic activity impact the global economy?

That is where complexity science comes in.

But, you say, what about social security, healthcare, finance, insurance, and risk?

That is where actuarial science comes in.

We can build a stimulus package which will truly transform the economy in a sustainable way.

We can test and monitor the flows over time and make adjustments as needed.

Yes we can.

Lee

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