Saving the World-A $ trillion at a time

The reason there is so much confusion in Washington at the moment over how to stimulate the economy is that no one there knows. They don't know because they don't have the analytical apparatus by which to adeqautely gauge the impact of proposals on the economy

The analytical structures and databases, however do exist.

Below is a simplified version of what a stimulus budget being thrown around in Washington looks like:

Stimulus Stimulus
Component Budget *

Health $ 150000
Education 100000
Welfare 100000
Crime 10000
Infrastructure 70000
Energy 70000
Housing 30000
Transportation 50000
Tax Credits 300000
----------
880000
*$ 000,000

No serious attempt is made to estimate how each component and the total will flow through the economy in a demographically adjusted, probabilistically calculated, interaction robust, temporally realistic manner. To do that would require tools that are not being used.

Those tools do exist, however. Complexity scientists, actuaries, computer scientists, economists, and financial engineers have created data bases and analytical structures which can simulate how various options for economic stimulus will flow through the economy.

These scenarios can take account of interactions, uncertainties, demographic shifts, time frames, and other factors which ultimately impact of the way stimulus alternatives impact long term stability and growth. They can show how different alternatives will have different multipliers over time, and therefore greatly different impacts.

We can design a stimulus package which can be integrated with normal government budget activity to give a reasonably likely opportunity to transform the economy in a sustainable way.

We can show how that will happen and monitor the results so as to make adjustments as needed.
We can make it transparent with manageable accounting structures.

All we need to do is adapt methodology which is already out there.

We can do it

Yes we can.

Lee