Markets and Fish and the Global Economy

We have been making the case that no amount of government spending/stimulus will have the desired effects on the global and US economies unless properly targeted. Proper targeting requires data and analytics which can reasonably test alternative scenarios. Such data and analytics are currently not part of the dialogue on the economic crisis.

It does, however, exist.

In the current issue of Scientific American, an article by Paul Raeburn demonstrates clearly one of the deep values of complexity science-interdiscipinary perspective.

Mathematicians, physical scientists, biologists, social scientists, artists, doctors, military leaders, and economists all see patterns which impact on all aspects of life.

In the case of Raeburn's article, fisheries are seen as complex systems with characteristics many of which are similar to those of chaotic financial markets. As we indicate is the case with financial markets, that they are no longer amenable to conventional analysis, so with fishing, which is "...like the stock market-the crash of one or two species or a hedge fund or mortgage bank, can trigger a collapse of the entire system."

The same issue of Scientific American has a column on the stimulus. It indicates what should be obvious, that certain expenditures like electrical infrastructure and sustainable energy, may have multipliers many times those of other types of expenditure.

Only a complexity based actuarial model can test the various scenarios probabilistically demographically, interactively, and temporally.

Yes we can.

Lee