$787 billion

A billion here...

Now the details of the stimulus package are out. Will it work? Has it been tested?Does anyone know?

Complicated economic/mathematical models have been run. But aren't they the ones which got us here?

Do they account for black swans? tipping points? cascades? power laws? multifractals? fat tails?cluster correlations? phase transitions? interactions? demographics? uncertainties? time frames?

The fact is that there are data mining, agent based, actuarially sound, data visualization, econometric tools available by which to truly test and monitor any stimulus scenario developed. The anticipated impact on the global and US economies as well as the individual sectors and businesses could be forecast. The options most likely to have the sustainable, transformative effect desired could be chosen and monitored and adjusted as needed.

How much more confidence would be inspired if officials could testify..."We anticipate (based on the best data and analysis availble) that this stimulus package will have an impact on GNP of $500 billlion in the first year with a 92% probability it will be at least $400 billion...the multipliers associated with the chosen components of the package are the largest of all those tested..."

Here are the details of the ($787 b) stimulus package passed this weekend:

$506 billion in spending
-$141b healthcare
-$92 b infrastructure
-$87b education
-$67b welfare
-$41b energy
-$10b housing
-$6b science
-$7b security
-$55b other

$281 billion tax credits

This money could be targeted and monitored at the micro level to have maximum impact. For example, the science money could to where it would have a multiplier of 22 or 1.

From the labs of Los Alamos to the campuses of Boston, the tools needed to assure that the stimulus works have already been developed. All we need to do is integrate them with those currently being used.

Yes we can

Lee