Rome is burning and our leaders are stumbling over each other about $150 million in bonuses. These are the same politicians who have quadrupled the federal deficit since 1980. Reagan and the two Bushes produced three times more deficit than all prior President's (yes going back to George Washington).
$150m million is 1/10% of $150 billion. Politicians no longer even read briefs on $150 billion in spending. Does anyone believe they really care about AIG's bonuses?
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
The $70 trillion question
What do you get when you have a $5 trillion spending agenda and a $65 trillion entitlement deficit?
The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.
Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.
Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.
Lee
The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.
Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.
Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.
Lee
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Holistic Stimulus
It all should be done at once.
The idea of stimulus spending is to stimulate economic growth. Does anyone believe that will happen if we just dump money into exisitng systems which are failing?
That's why the President wisely wants to reform healthcare, education, lobbying, earmarks, and other dimensions of spending simultaneously with stimuli and bailouts.
When 5% of $ 1 trillion goes to "healthcare", it can have $0 effect, $50 billion effect, or $500 billion effect. It all depends on the microfoundations.
Similarly with infrastructure, energy, science and welfare. When we talk about $4 trillion in total spending, how it flows will make the difference between nirvana and doomsday. We could end up with a collapsed, unsustainable economy or a vibrant, sustainable one.
The choice is ours.
Are we willing to invest in models which will show how flows can best be directed to produce a sustainable economy?
Yes we are.
Lee
The idea of stimulus spending is to stimulate economic growth. Does anyone believe that will happen if we just dump money into exisitng systems which are failing?
That's why the President wisely wants to reform healthcare, education, lobbying, earmarks, and other dimensions of spending simultaneously with stimuli and bailouts.
When 5% of $ 1 trillion goes to "healthcare", it can have $0 effect, $50 billion effect, or $500 billion effect. It all depends on the microfoundations.
Similarly with infrastructure, energy, science and welfare. When we talk about $4 trillion in total spending, how it flows will make the difference between nirvana and doomsday. We could end up with a collapsed, unsustainable economy or a vibrant, sustainable one.
The choice is ours.
Are we willing to invest in models which will show how flows can best be directed to produce a sustainable economy?
Yes we are.
Lee
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Transforming the Economy Sustainably
If we add $1 trillion to existing government spending, and allocate the existing spending in a way that stimulates, how much will the economy grow over time, and how sustainably?
While that is the question of the hour, all the kings horses and all the kings men have no answer.
That is tragic because the answer is blowin' in the wind.
Using complexity and actuarial science tools to supplement existing models, alternative ways of stimulating the economy could be tested before implementation. The ones most likely to succeed could be implemented and monitored and adjusted over time as needed.
That way, tables could be developed showing multiples of alternative allocations. One allocation might double GNP growth over five years while another might produce a 500% increase over three years.
Wouldn't it be refreshing to hear, "We have decided to add $1 trillion to existing spending for the purpose of transforming our tired economy. We have tested alternative approaches and decided on one which has a 95% chance of doubling GNP within three years. We will monitor the money and if it is not having the desired effect, will make adjustments.
We are confident this stimulus will transform our economy because we have tested it from the macro to the micro level. The money is targeted to industries and companies most likely to provide sustainable, transformative growth.
Our models are actuarially sound, demographically robust, temporally adjusted, interactively designed, and probability oriented. The money flow will be transparent and accounted for professionally."
Yes we can.
While that is the question of the hour, all the kings horses and all the kings men have no answer.
That is tragic because the answer is blowin' in the wind.
Using complexity and actuarial science tools to supplement existing models, alternative ways of stimulating the economy could be tested before implementation. The ones most likely to succeed could be implemented and monitored and adjusted over time as needed.
That way, tables could be developed showing multiples of alternative allocations. One allocation might double GNP growth over five years while another might produce a 500% increase over three years.
Wouldn't it be refreshing to hear, "We have decided to add $1 trillion to existing spending for the purpose of transforming our tired economy. We have tested alternative approaches and decided on one which has a 95% chance of doubling GNP within three years. We will monitor the money and if it is not having the desired effect, will make adjustments.
We are confident this stimulus will transform our economy because we have tested it from the macro to the micro level. The money is targeted to industries and companies most likely to provide sustainable, transformative growth.
Our models are actuarially sound, demographically robust, temporally adjusted, interactively designed, and probability oriented. The money flow will be transparent and accounted for professionally."
Yes we can.
Monday, February 16, 2009
$787 billion
A billion here...
Now the details of the stimulus package are out. Will it work? Has it been tested?Does anyone know?
Complicated economic/mathematical models have been run. But aren't they the ones which got us here?
Do they account for black swans? tipping points? cascades? power laws? multifractals? fat tails?cluster correlations? phase transitions? interactions? demographics? uncertainties? time frames?
The fact is that there are data mining, agent based, actuarially sound, data visualization, econometric tools available by which to truly test and monitor any stimulus scenario developed. The anticipated impact on the global and US economies as well as the individual sectors and businesses could be forecast. The options most likely to have the sustainable, transformative effect desired could be chosen and monitored and adjusted as needed.
How much more confidence would be inspired if officials could testify..."We anticipate (based on the best data and analysis availble) that this stimulus package will have an impact on GNP of $500 billlion in the first year with a 92% probability it will be at least $400 billion...the multipliers associated with the chosen components of the package are the largest of all those tested..."
Here are the details of the ($787 b) stimulus package passed this weekend:
$506 billion in spending
-$141b healthcare
-$92 b infrastructure
-$87b education
-$67b welfare
-$41b energy
-$10b housing
-$6b science
-$7b security
-$55b other
$281 billion tax credits
This money could be targeted and monitored at the micro level to have maximum impact. For example, the science money could to where it would have a multiplier of 22 or 1.
From the labs of Los Alamos to the campuses of Boston, the tools needed to assure that the stimulus works have already been developed. All we need to do is integrate them with those currently being used.
Yes we can
Lee
Now the details of the stimulus package are out. Will it work? Has it been tested?Does anyone know?
Complicated economic/mathematical models have been run. But aren't they the ones which got us here?
Do they account for black swans? tipping points? cascades? power laws? multifractals? fat tails?cluster correlations? phase transitions? interactions? demographics? uncertainties? time frames?
The fact is that there are data mining, agent based, actuarially sound, data visualization, econometric tools available by which to truly test and monitor any stimulus scenario developed. The anticipated impact on the global and US economies as well as the individual sectors and businesses could be forecast. The options most likely to have the sustainable, transformative effect desired could be chosen and monitored and adjusted as needed.
How much more confidence would be inspired if officials could testify..."We anticipate (based on the best data and analysis availble) that this stimulus package will have an impact on GNP of $500 billlion in the first year with a 92% probability it will be at least $400 billion...the multipliers associated with the chosen components of the package are the largest of all those tested..."
Here are the details of the ($787 b) stimulus package passed this weekend:
$506 billion in spending
-$141b healthcare
-$92 b infrastructure
-$87b education
-$67b welfare
-$41b energy
-$10b housing
-$6b science
-$7b security
-$55b other
$281 billion tax credits
This money could be targeted and monitored at the micro level to have maximum impact. For example, the science money could to where it would have a multiplier of 22 or 1.
From the labs of Los Alamos to the campuses of Boston, the tools needed to assure that the stimulus works have already been developed. All we need to do is integrate them with those currently being used.
Yes we can
Lee
Friday, February 13, 2009
The Info Mesa
Ed Regis' book shows how Santa Fe became the nerve center of a movement which is changing the world. He documents the rise of dozens of companies which came to apply new methodologies, complexity science, chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics, artificial life, and so on to real world problems.
He traces the movement from Los Alamos where computer technology had exploded to deal with the complexity of nuclear physics to the Santa Fe Institute where an interdiscipinary approach to scientific research blossomed. The Institute would, "...blur the edges, merge the disciplines into a unique synthesis that was greater than the sum of its parts...large portions of empirical reality had been reduced to data...atoms, molecules, chemicals, proteins, genes cells...the planet itself...".
Years earlier, Mitchell Waldrop had written of the dawn of the complexity movement. Neoclassical economics had reduced "...the rich complexity of the world into a narrow set of abstract principles...when philosophers saw the cosmos as a ...vast clockwork device...governed by the Invisible Hand...small events could have large consequences..."
If there was ever a time for interdisciplinary, rigorous, creative, quantum thinking it is now. World markets are collapsing and entire countries are on the brink of collapse. Stimulus packages are being passed with little or no underestanding of how they might work.
Using the perspective of complexity science, levened by actuarial science, policymakers can test alternative approaches against alternative scenarios and dynamically choose those most likely to succeed. They could answer questions like, "What is the likelihood that the stimulus will raise the standard of living 30% within 9 months, and 50% after 18 months?"
Wouldn't that create more confidence than the current mantra," No one knows what to do...or what will happen if we do do"
The future of the US and world economies may be at stake. We may only get one chance.
We must do it right.
Yes we can.
Lee
He traces the movement from Los Alamos where computer technology had exploded to deal with the complexity of nuclear physics to the Santa Fe Institute where an interdiscipinary approach to scientific research blossomed. The Institute would, "...blur the edges, merge the disciplines into a unique synthesis that was greater than the sum of its parts...large portions of empirical reality had been reduced to data...atoms, molecules, chemicals, proteins, genes cells...the planet itself...".
Years earlier, Mitchell Waldrop had written of the dawn of the complexity movement. Neoclassical economics had reduced "...the rich complexity of the world into a narrow set of abstract principles...when philosophers saw the cosmos as a ...vast clockwork device...governed by the Invisible Hand...small events could have large consequences..."
If there was ever a time for interdisciplinary, rigorous, creative, quantum thinking it is now. World markets are collapsing and entire countries are on the brink of collapse. Stimulus packages are being passed with little or no underestanding of how they might work.
Using the perspective of complexity science, levened by actuarial science, policymakers can test alternative approaches against alternative scenarios and dynamically choose those most likely to succeed. They could answer questions like, "What is the likelihood that the stimulus will raise the standard of living 30% within 9 months, and 50% after 18 months?"
Wouldn't that create more confidence than the current mantra," No one knows what to do...or what will happen if we do do"
The future of the US and world economies may be at stake. We may only get one chance.
We must do it right.
Yes we can.
Lee
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
The Geithner Performance
It's not his fault.
No one knows what to do.
At least no one in Washington.
The tragedy is that a bailout/stimulus/budget package can be developed and tested which would meet the critria everyone has-that it gets the economy moving. From the labs of Los Alamos and Chicago to the campuses of Ann Arbor and Boston, models have been developed which are up to the task of analyzing all the proposals which are now randomly floating around Washigton.
Actuaries, physicists, economists, and computer scientists have develped data and analytical fameworks which will allow any proposal to be tested properly before implementation. The models have the needed demographic, interactive, temporal and probabilistic dimensions.
What confidence it would give the American public if the President could lay out scenarios describing how alternative expenditures would flow through the US and global economies. Multipliers for each element and for the program as a whole would be provided.
Yes we can.
Lee
No one knows what to do.
At least no one in Washington.
The tragedy is that a bailout/stimulus/budget package can be developed and tested which would meet the critria everyone has-that it gets the economy moving. From the labs of Los Alamos and Chicago to the campuses of Ann Arbor and Boston, models have been developed which are up to the task of analyzing all the proposals which are now randomly floating around Washigton.
Actuaries, physicists, economists, and computer scientists have develped data and analytical fameworks which will allow any proposal to be tested properly before implementation. The models have the needed demographic, interactive, temporal and probabilistic dimensions.
What confidence it would give the American public if the President could lay out scenarios describing how alternative expenditures would flow through the US and global economies. Multipliers for each element and for the program as a whole would be provided.
Yes we can.
Lee
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
What if he's right?
In his book, John Perkins talks about the military industrial complex's impact on Third World countries.
"Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly paid professionals who cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars. They funnel money from the World Bank, USAID,...into the pockets of a few wealthy individuals who control the planet's natural resources."
Wow. If this beginning to the Preface has any basis in truth, the Obama Administration has issues that transcend those currently being discussed in the media.
In addition to considering the traditional networks in determining ways to allocate government resources in a way that optimizes human welfare, he has to look behind the curtain and see if the resources are really going to appropriate places.
Are the, "Few wealthy individuals who control the planet's natural resources" also receiving government bailouts...?
Do they run the banks, healthcare organizations, infrastructure contractors, and other organizations receiving government money?
Does it matter?
We know that the government needs new analytical tools to determine whether government programs accomplish their goals.
Using actuarial, complexity science, data mining and visualization, and other tools which are available but underutilized, the Administration can be sure its resources will be more likely to have the intended effect.
Can we build analytical tools which will allow us to be sure we are getting the most welfare impact possible from our programs? Can we predict Net Economic Welfare and Gross National Product scenarios which will provide for a reasonable standard of life for future generations?
Yes we can.
Lee
In his book, John Perkins talks about the military industrial complex's impact on Third World countries.
"Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly paid professionals who cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars. They funnel money from the World Bank, USAID,...into the pockets of a few wealthy individuals who control the planet's natural resources."
Wow. If this beginning to the Preface has any basis in truth, the Obama Administration has issues that transcend those currently being discussed in the media.
In addition to considering the traditional networks in determining ways to allocate government resources in a way that optimizes human welfare, he has to look behind the curtain and see if the resources are really going to appropriate places.
Are the, "Few wealthy individuals who control the planet's natural resources" also receiving government bailouts...?
Do they run the banks, healthcare organizations, infrastructure contractors, and other organizations receiving government money?
Does it matter?
We know that the government needs new analytical tools to determine whether government programs accomplish their goals.
Using actuarial, complexity science, data mining and visualization, and other tools which are available but underutilized, the Administration can be sure its resources will be more likely to have the intended effect.
Can we build analytical tools which will allow us to be sure we are getting the most welfare impact possible from our programs? Can we predict Net Economic Welfare and Gross National Product scenarios which will provide for a reasonable standard of life for future generations?
Yes we can.
Lee
Glass Bead Game
Hesses's novel posits an imaginary world in which spiritual values emerge dynamically as a game with musical and mathematical elements is played. The rules of the game draw from the sciences and arts, and express interrelationships among all areas of knowledge. As a result, it encompasses all aspects of culture and can lead to a full understanding of reality.
That sounds remarkably close to the basic premise of Harmonious Universe where developments in particle physics become the structure of the game. The metaphors of particle physics, waves, particles, fields, dimensions, entanglement...create a vision of a transcendent world where the mysteries of life are resolved.
The deeper we penetrate the atom and its nucleus the more fuzzy the core of reality seems. Electrons which orbit the nucleus are not "things", but are more like clouds of virtual reality. The quarks which make up the protons and neutrons in the nucleus may be stringlike objects whose vibrations in dimensions beyond our own create the elements of our world.
These particles may not exist at all, except as part of a web of connections made manifest by fields of virtuality.
In The Music of the Spheres, Jamie James starts out with a "Great Theme", "Picture to yourself, if you can, a universe in which everything makes sense. A serene order presides over the earth around you, and the heavens above revolve in sublime harmony.
Everything you can hear and see and know is an aspect of the ultimate truth: the noble simplicity of a geometric theorem, the predictability of the movement of the heavenly bodies, the harmonious beauty of a well-proportioned fugue-all are reflections of the essential perfection of the universe."
James goes on to demonstrate, through a journey through Western thought, how a loss of transcendence in the Industrial Revolution and Romantic movement dulled our sense of wonder and awe at the sheer power of the universe.
Harmonious Universe puts the sense of wonder back into our souls. A physical universe of mystery and beauty evolves into a mental and spiritual universe of unlimited possibility.
A convergence is now occurring. In the late 18th century, a group of amazing intellects created a country which has been a beacon of hope for all peoples for centuries. In the 1960's, developments in the sciences, arts, and politics were pointing to a new age of truth beauty and justice.
In 2009 a new Administration entered Washington on a wave of hope that mirrors that in the sciences of finding deep truths.
We are beginning a process of transforming the American economy into one which will provide hope for centuries to come. We will need wisdom, courage, strength and integrity.
We can move our society forward in a way that assures that future generations will have the opportunities we have had.
Yes we can.
Lee
That sounds remarkably close to the basic premise of Harmonious Universe where developments in particle physics become the structure of the game. The metaphors of particle physics, waves, particles, fields, dimensions, entanglement...create a vision of a transcendent world where the mysteries of life are resolved.
The deeper we penetrate the atom and its nucleus the more fuzzy the core of reality seems. Electrons which orbit the nucleus are not "things", but are more like clouds of virtual reality. The quarks which make up the protons and neutrons in the nucleus may be stringlike objects whose vibrations in dimensions beyond our own create the elements of our world.
These particles may not exist at all, except as part of a web of connections made manifest by fields of virtuality.
In The Music of the Spheres, Jamie James starts out with a "Great Theme", "Picture to yourself, if you can, a universe in which everything makes sense. A serene order presides over the earth around you, and the heavens above revolve in sublime harmony.
Everything you can hear and see and know is an aspect of the ultimate truth: the noble simplicity of a geometric theorem, the predictability of the movement of the heavenly bodies, the harmonious beauty of a well-proportioned fugue-all are reflections of the essential perfection of the universe."
James goes on to demonstrate, through a journey through Western thought, how a loss of transcendence in the Industrial Revolution and Romantic movement dulled our sense of wonder and awe at the sheer power of the universe.
Harmonious Universe puts the sense of wonder back into our souls. A physical universe of mystery and beauty evolves into a mental and spiritual universe of unlimited possibility.
A convergence is now occurring. In the late 18th century, a group of amazing intellects created a country which has been a beacon of hope for all peoples for centuries. In the 1960's, developments in the sciences, arts, and politics were pointing to a new age of truth beauty and justice.
In 2009 a new Administration entered Washington on a wave of hope that mirrors that in the sciences of finding deep truths.
We are beginning a process of transforming the American economy into one which will provide hope for centuries to come. We will need wisdom, courage, strength and integrity.
We can move our society forward in a way that assures that future generations will have the opportunities we have had.
Yes we can.
Lee
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Organic Universe
The idea of deep ecology is intriguing.
It is especially intriguing if there is evidence that the cosmos is an organism in the sense that all its parts are working together.
Like the human body, if all the parts are in synch, the cosmos is operating at peak efficiency. If some parts are out of synche, optimality is compromised.
Like a perfectly symmetric universe, a perfectly organic universe might not be as interesting as the one we inhabit. There may be a middle ground, however, where there can be optimal happiness while diversity and mystery continue to abound.
When we talk about our part of the cosmos, the earth, the discussion becomes more immediate. On the planet there are a number of ecosystems which support the quality and nature of our existence. The atoms which make us up are the same as those which make up every other element of he universe. They also may be entangled with every other atom.
The rocks, trees, animals and lakes resonate in some sense to the same rhythms as our bodies.
To the extent we destroy any part of this web, we diminish some aspect of our being.
Balance, The Golden Mean, The Golden Rule, all notions to help us navigate in these tricky waters.
The time honored goals of beauty, justice and truth emerge from a truly integrated physical, mental, and spiritual being.
Lee
It is especially intriguing if there is evidence that the cosmos is an organism in the sense that all its parts are working together.
Like the human body, if all the parts are in synch, the cosmos is operating at peak efficiency. If some parts are out of synche, optimality is compromised.
Like a perfectly symmetric universe, a perfectly organic universe might not be as interesting as the one we inhabit. There may be a middle ground, however, where there can be optimal happiness while diversity and mystery continue to abound.
When we talk about our part of the cosmos, the earth, the discussion becomes more immediate. On the planet there are a number of ecosystems which support the quality and nature of our existence. The atoms which make us up are the same as those which make up every other element of he universe. They also may be entangled with every other atom.
The rocks, trees, animals and lakes resonate in some sense to the same rhythms as our bodies.
To the extent we destroy any part of this web, we diminish some aspect of our being.
Balance, The Golden Mean, The Golden Rule, all notions to help us navigate in these tricky waters.
The time honored goals of beauty, justice and truth emerge from a truly integrated physical, mental, and spiritual being.
Lee
Silent Spring
"There was once a town in the heart of America where all life seemed to live in harmony with its surroundings."
So began one of the most influential books in the history of our nation.
When Rachel Carson wrote Silent Spring, few Americans were aware of what has since become known as the environmental crisis. For the first time Americans were informed that economic activity can have consequences which are not foreseen in economic calculations.
A few years earlier, John Kenneth Galbraith had raised the alarm in a slightly different way in his book, Affluent Society.
"The shortcomings of economics are not original error, but uncorrected obsolescence."
Galbraith decried the lack of value put on "public goods" for which there may not be effective markets at a point in time, but which are essential to society's meaningful survival.
Charles Reich took up the mantle a decade later with The Greening of America.
"There is a revolution coming. It will not be like revolutions of the past. It will originate with the individual..."
These words are eerily apt today. A revolution began anew on January 20, 2009 and its echoes will be felt for generations.
In his last campaign, Bobby Kennedy said, "Too much and too long we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things...Our Gross National Product...counts air pollution,...the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder..."
"Yet the Gross Natoinal Product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play......the beauty of our poetry...neither our wit nor our courage..."
The common thread in all this musing is that traditional economic thinking accounts for only a part of the nation's quality of life. Yet our economic and financial models still ignore anything considered unmeasureable.
Are we ready for a real economic transformation?
Are we ready for a sustainable economy?
Are we ready for govenment spending, bailouts, stilmuli, and regulatory activity which increases the long term welfare of our citizens?
Are we ready to use the best minds and technologies to solve our problems?
Can we do it?
Yes we can.
Lee
So began one of the most influential books in the history of our nation.
When Rachel Carson wrote Silent Spring, few Americans were aware of what has since become known as the environmental crisis. For the first time Americans were informed that economic activity can have consequences which are not foreseen in economic calculations.
A few years earlier, John Kenneth Galbraith had raised the alarm in a slightly different way in his book, Affluent Society.
"The shortcomings of economics are not original error, but uncorrected obsolescence."
Galbraith decried the lack of value put on "public goods" for which there may not be effective markets at a point in time, but which are essential to society's meaningful survival.
Charles Reich took up the mantle a decade later with The Greening of America.
"There is a revolution coming. It will not be like revolutions of the past. It will originate with the individual..."
These words are eerily apt today. A revolution began anew on January 20, 2009 and its echoes will be felt for generations.
In his last campaign, Bobby Kennedy said, "Too much and too long we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things...Our Gross National Product...counts air pollution,...the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder..."
"Yet the Gross Natoinal Product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play......the beauty of our poetry...neither our wit nor our courage..."
The common thread in all this musing is that traditional economic thinking accounts for only a part of the nation's quality of life. Yet our economic and financial models still ignore anything considered unmeasureable.
Are we ready for a real economic transformation?
Are we ready for a sustainable economy?
Are we ready for govenment spending, bailouts, stilmuli, and regulatory activity which increases the long term welfare of our citizens?
Are we ready to use the best minds and technologies to solve our problems?
Can we do it?
Yes we can.
Lee
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Hunter, Matt & Lee
In the current issue of Rolling Stone, Matt Taibbi says to a clueless "W " who doesn't understand why people don't appreciate his service...
"OK, here it is.You're the child of two emotionally abscent aristocrats who denied you any kind of love and affection..
You grew up resentful and lacking completely in any natural gifts or curiosity...You were aided in (this) quest by a bunch of narrow-minded lackeys...who...manipulated your obvious Oedipal resentments...
...you're about to spend the rest of eternity pondering your now-official legacy as the worst and most pigheaded leader in the history of Western democracy, a man who almost single-handedly sank the mightiest nation on earth by turning the Presidency into a $50 trillion therapy session that ended in two disastrous wars, a financial crisis...and a legacy of corruption on a scale not seen since the Borgias..."
Of course, Matt is gentle when put beside Hunter Thompson who, in Generation of Swine said about poppa Bush..."It is difficult for an ordinary voter to come to grips with the notion that a truly evil man, a truthless monster with the brains of a king rat and the soul of a cockroach, is about to be sworn in as President of the United States..."
Now, since the point of my blogs is that there is hope in America to restore the dream of our Founding Fathers, I don't want to dwell too much on the dark side.
In a world of Platonic Forms, dancing waves of inter-connected energy, and fields of harmonic resonance, there is much about which to be hopeful.
A true leader is to be sworn in tomorrow. He will be in a position to transform the country not just economically but spiritually. The values of life, liberty and true happiness can be combined with courage, integrity, compassion, truth, justice, beauty and wisdom to create a tapestry of hope not seen since 1968.
The American spirit as manifest in the lives of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Martin, Bobby and now Barack has never been more healthy. We can overcome the obstacles which have arisen in recent years.
Yes we can.
Lee
"OK, here it is.You're the child of two emotionally abscent aristocrats who denied you any kind of love and affection..
You grew up resentful and lacking completely in any natural gifts or curiosity...You were aided in (this) quest by a bunch of narrow-minded lackeys...who...manipulated your obvious Oedipal resentments...
...you're about to spend the rest of eternity pondering your now-official legacy as the worst and most pigheaded leader in the history of Western democracy, a man who almost single-handedly sank the mightiest nation on earth by turning the Presidency into a $50 trillion therapy session that ended in two disastrous wars, a financial crisis...and a legacy of corruption on a scale not seen since the Borgias..."
Of course, Matt is gentle when put beside Hunter Thompson who, in Generation of Swine said about poppa Bush..."It is difficult for an ordinary voter to come to grips with the notion that a truly evil man, a truthless monster with the brains of a king rat and the soul of a cockroach, is about to be sworn in as President of the United States..."
Now, since the point of my blogs is that there is hope in America to restore the dream of our Founding Fathers, I don't want to dwell too much on the dark side.
In a world of Platonic Forms, dancing waves of inter-connected energy, and fields of harmonic resonance, there is much about which to be hopeful.
A true leader is to be sworn in tomorrow. He will be in a position to transform the country not just economically but spiritually. The values of life, liberty and true happiness can be combined with courage, integrity, compassion, truth, justice, beauty and wisdom to create a tapestry of hope not seen since 1968.
The American spirit as manifest in the lives of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Martin, Bobby and now Barack has never been more healthy. We can overcome the obstacles which have arisen in recent years.
Yes we can.
Lee
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Putting People First
Putting People First (PPF) was the "plan" Bill Clinton and Al Gore published in 1992 to "...fight for what Americans deserve".
How'd that work out?
Since we have been kind of hard on the man who succeeded Clinton, it behooves us to look at how Bubba did. After all, by 2000 the American public was so disgusted with Billary that they elected a total moron to lead the free world.
The plan (PPF) involved "...good jobs, world class education, quality healthcare, and safe streets and neighborhoods."
"Our national strategy will reward the people who work hard and play by the rules. "
WOOPS!
"Increase corporate average fuel economy standards from the current 27.5 mpg to 40...45..."
TRIPLE WOOPS!
What happened?
Within days of entering the Oval Office, Bubba was being coopted by the Republicans. He started making deals with the devil immediately, and after the blue dress incident totally rolled over.
Now except for Ken Starr and a few other voyeurs, nobody really cared what Billy did in his spare time. God knows that to the extent Republicans have sex at all it is weird sex.
Unfortunately, Bill's propensity to deny his otherwise normal sex drive made it impossible for him to govern once he was outed.
In fairness, notwithstanding his moral cowardice Bubba did make government work better than had daddy Bush.
And in retrospect, it was heaven compared to "W".
But should that be our standard?
Kinda reminds me of Gary Hart's 1983 campaign book, A New Democracy, where he begins,
"America's character is being tested..."
How'd that work out?
Now compared to Newt Gingrich's cancer deathbed present to his first wife (that he wanted to leave her for his second wife who he later dumped for another...) the Democrataic pecadillos are hardly worthy of mention. Unfortunately, the way Dems handle getting caught condemns them to eternal fury from hypocritical, self-righteous Republicans who periodically emerge from the closet to condemn others.
This all sounds a little negative.
Well guess what?
In a few days we will have a President who seems to have character, intellect, integrity, wisdom, and a bunch of other good traits. And we shouldn't care what he does in private as long as he moves the planet toward peace and harmony.
Yes we can.
Lee
How'd that work out?
Since we have been kind of hard on the man who succeeded Clinton, it behooves us to look at how Bubba did. After all, by 2000 the American public was so disgusted with Billary that they elected a total moron to lead the free world.
The plan (PPF) involved "...good jobs, world class education, quality healthcare, and safe streets and neighborhoods."
"Our national strategy will reward the people who work hard and play by the rules. "
WOOPS!
"Increase corporate average fuel economy standards from the current 27.5 mpg to 40...45..."
TRIPLE WOOPS!
What happened?
Within days of entering the Oval Office, Bubba was being coopted by the Republicans. He started making deals with the devil immediately, and after the blue dress incident totally rolled over.
Now except for Ken Starr and a few other voyeurs, nobody really cared what Billy did in his spare time. God knows that to the extent Republicans have sex at all it is weird sex.
Unfortunately, Bill's propensity to deny his otherwise normal sex drive made it impossible for him to govern once he was outed.
In fairness, notwithstanding his moral cowardice Bubba did make government work better than had daddy Bush.
And in retrospect, it was heaven compared to "W".
But should that be our standard?
Kinda reminds me of Gary Hart's 1983 campaign book, A New Democracy, where he begins,
"America's character is being tested..."
How'd that work out?
Now compared to Newt Gingrich's cancer deathbed present to his first wife (that he wanted to leave her for his second wife who he later dumped for another...) the Democrataic pecadillos are hardly worthy of mention. Unfortunately, the way Dems handle getting caught condemns them to eternal fury from hypocritical, self-righteous Republicans who periodically emerge from the closet to condemn others.
This all sounds a little negative.
Well guess what?
In a few days we will have a President who seems to have character, intellect, integrity, wisdom, and a bunch of other good traits. And we shouldn't care what he does in private as long as he moves the planet toward peace and harmony.
Yes we can.
Lee
Saturday, January 3, 2009
paradigmactuaries.com
The website noted in the title to this blog is complementary to the blog. They are vehicles for communicating a new vision of reality.
The book, Harmonious Universe, still to be published, describes a worldview emanating from discoveries in particle physics, complexity science, and actuarial science which provides a roadmap to unity.
Starting with the fundamental constituents of nature, the waves, fields, particles, and other components of the atom, we build up to society and its institutions with mathematics and metaphor.
This is part of a conversation which began before Plato, and will continue beyond us. It is about the eternal notions of justice, truth, beauty, love, and being.
The website describes the book and some related thoughts. Included are descriptions of analytical stuctures which have been developed to better understand our economy.
We now have 36 blogs discussing various aspects of the new perspective. Some, like Republican Think Tank are satirical. Some, like The Science of Philosophy, are academic.
In all cases, the idea is the same, probe reality to discover truth from which justice and beauty can emerge.
In Abraham, Martin and John, we look at how Martin Luther King and Kahill Gibran probe truth and set the stage for positive aspects of the 1960's.
In The Edge of Chaos, we talk of an Economic Manhattan Project to get the US economy back on track.
In The Math of Reality, we consider how institutions like the New England Complex Systems Institute and the Santa Fe Institute are moving science toward more holistic modeling. By combining the new data mining, data visualizaton and analytical structures with those of actuarial science we see how traditional modeling relative to public policy issues can be enhanced and made more valuable.
The remaining blogs continue to expand the vision . The goal is to have the blog address all issues of Harmonious Universe and put them into a lasting perspective.
Along the way we hope to find some truth of our own.
Lee
The book, Harmonious Universe, still to be published, describes a worldview emanating from discoveries in particle physics, complexity science, and actuarial science which provides a roadmap to unity.
Starting with the fundamental constituents of nature, the waves, fields, particles, and other components of the atom, we build up to society and its institutions with mathematics and metaphor.
This is part of a conversation which began before Plato, and will continue beyond us. It is about the eternal notions of justice, truth, beauty, love, and being.
The website describes the book and some related thoughts. Included are descriptions of analytical stuctures which have been developed to better understand our economy.
We now have 36 blogs discussing various aspects of the new perspective. Some, like Republican Think Tank are satirical. Some, like The Science of Philosophy, are academic.
In all cases, the idea is the same, probe reality to discover truth from which justice and beauty can emerge.
In Abraham, Martin and John, we look at how Martin Luther King and Kahill Gibran probe truth and set the stage for positive aspects of the 1960's.
In The Edge of Chaos, we talk of an Economic Manhattan Project to get the US economy back on track.
In The Math of Reality, we consider how institutions like the New England Complex Systems Institute and the Santa Fe Institute are moving science toward more holistic modeling. By combining the new data mining, data visualizaton and analytical structures with those of actuarial science we see how traditional modeling relative to public policy issues can be enhanced and made more valuable.
The remaining blogs continue to expand the vision . The goal is to have the blog address all issues of Harmonious Universe and put them into a lasting perspective.
Along the way we hope to find some truth of our own.
Lee
Thursday, January 1, 2009
The Edge of Chaos
The Edge promotes the third culture which is asking whether science can help solve the economic crisis.
Would an "Economic Manhattan Project" result in a new conceptualization from which solutions could be found?
In an e-book titled "Risk Management, The Current Financial Crisis", the actuarial profession addresses the same notion.
"The current dominant methodology for banks...asessing their capital needs ...is based on estimating the value at risk (var)...one typically fits a distribution to possible returns and works out the implied var..."
The problem is in choosing a distribution which will reflect future reality. Black Swans, as opposed to standard events, are becoming more the rule in the global economy.
Particle Physicists have spent decades studying the behavior of subatomic particles. In the process, they have developed mathematical and computer structures which can model amazingly complex behavior. These structures are available to be applied to systems more complex than the atom.
Likewise, actuaries have spent decades studing the mathematical behavior of contingent events and their financial consequences. From data reflecting the results of injuries, lawsuits, weather, disease, death,...actuaries have discerned patterns which emerge from human activity.
Combining the power of actuarial and complexity science structures with classical ones, models of the global economy and its constituents can be developed which will supersede and transcend existing ones. In the process we will come closer to undersatnding the deep, underlying causes and potentional fixes of economic and financial dislocations. That understanding will lead us to policies which can successfully transform the American and global economy so as to increase human welfare while developing a sustainable future for our children.
What do we have to lose?
We used to say, "If we can put a (man) on the moon..."
Now we can say, "If we can develop mathematical and computer structures which can model the behavior of ethreal waves and fields..which interact in multidimensional spaces to produce the world of our intellect and senses...and actuarial structures which model complex aspects of the results of many aspects of human activity...can't we find structures which will help us develop policies which will result in a future for humankind better than those now in use? "
Yes we can.
Lee
Would an "Economic Manhattan Project" result in a new conceptualization from which solutions could be found?
In an e-book titled "Risk Management, The Current Financial Crisis", the actuarial profession addresses the same notion.
"The current dominant methodology for banks...asessing their capital needs ...is based on estimating the value at risk (var)...one typically fits a distribution to possible returns and works out the implied var..."
The problem is in choosing a distribution which will reflect future reality. Black Swans, as opposed to standard events, are becoming more the rule in the global economy.
Particle Physicists have spent decades studying the behavior of subatomic particles. In the process, they have developed mathematical and computer structures which can model amazingly complex behavior. These structures are available to be applied to systems more complex than the atom.
Likewise, actuaries have spent decades studing the mathematical behavior of contingent events and their financial consequences. From data reflecting the results of injuries, lawsuits, weather, disease, death,...actuaries have discerned patterns which emerge from human activity.
Combining the power of actuarial and complexity science structures with classical ones, models of the global economy and its constituents can be developed which will supersede and transcend existing ones. In the process we will come closer to undersatnding the deep, underlying causes and potentional fixes of economic and financial dislocations. That understanding will lead us to policies which can successfully transform the American and global economy so as to increase human welfare while developing a sustainable future for our children.
What do we have to lose?
We used to say, "If we can put a (man) on the moon..."
Now we can say, "If we can develop mathematical and computer structures which can model the behavior of ethreal waves and fields..which interact in multidimensional spaces to produce the world of our intellect and senses...and actuarial structures which model complex aspects of the results of many aspects of human activity...can't we find structures which will help us develop policies which will result in a future for humankind better than those now in use? "
Yes we can.
Lee
Friday, December 19, 2008
For Spacious Skies
What would the Founding Fathers think? Did they devote the best years of their lives to create a nation which spawns a generation which squanders the bounty of future generations?
Look Kids, a $60 trillion deficit for you to fix. And oh yeah, do it with diminished resources and a ravaged natural environment.
When Jefferson worked with the others to frame a government where justice, liberty and the pursuit of happiness were possible, he drew from deep philosophical foundations.
Platonic ideals, Aristotelian teleology, Kantian Categories, Shakespeare's Complementarities, Locke's Natural Law, Mill's Utilitarianism...he challenged us to pursue truth in the search for justice.
Martin Luther King understood this. In his PhD thesis, King said, "Philosophy necessarily asks the question of reality as a whole...the structure of Being....". In his letter from a Birmingham Jail, he wrote, "Just as Socrates felt it was necessary to create a tension in the mind so that individuals could rise from the bondage of myths...to the unfettered realm of critical analysis...we must see the need of having nonviolent gadflies..."
And when Martin died, Bobby said, quoting Aeschylus, "...we need to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world."
When was the last time you heard one of the guardians of our freedoms articulate such ideas?
Socrates said that if he was wise it was because he understood how much he didn't know.
Can you hear Sarah Palin or George Bush saying that?
Lee
Look Kids, a $60 trillion deficit for you to fix. And oh yeah, do it with diminished resources and a ravaged natural environment.
When Jefferson worked with the others to frame a government where justice, liberty and the pursuit of happiness were possible, he drew from deep philosophical foundations.
Platonic ideals, Aristotelian teleology, Kantian Categories, Shakespeare's Complementarities, Locke's Natural Law, Mill's Utilitarianism...he challenged us to pursue truth in the search for justice.
Martin Luther King understood this. In his PhD thesis, King said, "Philosophy necessarily asks the question of reality as a whole...the structure of Being....". In his letter from a Birmingham Jail, he wrote, "Just as Socrates felt it was necessary to create a tension in the mind so that individuals could rise from the bondage of myths...to the unfettered realm of critical analysis...we must see the need of having nonviolent gadflies..."
And when Martin died, Bobby said, quoting Aeschylus, "...we need to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world."
When was the last time you heard one of the guardians of our freedoms articulate such ideas?
Socrates said that if he was wise it was because he understood how much he didn't know.
Can you hear Sarah Palin or George Bush saying that?
Lee
Monday, December 15, 2008
Republican Think Tank
Now that's an interesting idea. What in the world do they think about? How their heroes, the Bushes and Reagan, have quadrupled the budget deficit in a mere 20 years of governance?
When Reagan came to power in 1980 the deficit wasn't even a trillion dollars. "W" has done that in a year.
By 1992, when Clinton came unto office, it had ballooned to over $4 trillion. Under "W" it grew another $4 trillion to $10 trillion.
The unpaid obligations run up by Bush will add at least another trillion. And that doesn't count the unfunded programs like Social Security and Medicare which continue to balloon out of control. The Medicare Part D disaster which came in under Bush will add billions.
Oh yeah, what about tax reform and regulatory relief for small business?
Of course, the $10 trillion figure often used for the debt is as phony as Groucho Marx's glasses. The true debt under reasonable accounting standards is probably at least five times as high. Much of the difference is in unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations resulting from benefit increases which were not offset by revenue increases.
Welcome to our world children. You must fund the programs we enjoyed in a global economy which will enjoy increasing population and declining resources.
Of course our "anti-government" Republicans are not content to take away our economic freedoms.They want government mandates to replace individual freedon in decisions about healthcare, religion, and speech.
What about the Democrats? Well they are complicit in out of control spending, but they don't preach about limited government and lower taxes, much less moral superiority (Can you say Larry Craig, Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, Ted Stevens, Dennis Hastert, Tom Delay...?)
At least Republicans know the difference between Shiites's and Suni's. Woops. Hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives to replace one with the other in Iraq. Welcome President Al Sadr.
What about healthcare, science, the economy, the environment, foreign relations...?
Nice stewardship "W".
Well, we elected a President who seems to have intellect and compassion. He seems to want to return government to the people. He seems to appreciate the role of science, the arts, and education in Americaan life. He has a plan to transform the economy and put us back on the path of world leadership.
Yes we can.
Lee
When Reagan came to power in 1980 the deficit wasn't even a trillion dollars. "W" has done that in a year.
By 1992, when Clinton came unto office, it had ballooned to over $4 trillion. Under "W" it grew another $4 trillion to $10 trillion.
The unpaid obligations run up by Bush will add at least another trillion. And that doesn't count the unfunded programs like Social Security and Medicare which continue to balloon out of control. The Medicare Part D disaster which came in under Bush will add billions.
Oh yeah, what about tax reform and regulatory relief for small business?
Of course, the $10 trillion figure often used for the debt is as phony as Groucho Marx's glasses. The true debt under reasonable accounting standards is probably at least five times as high. Much of the difference is in unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations resulting from benefit increases which were not offset by revenue increases.
Welcome to our world children. You must fund the programs we enjoyed in a global economy which will enjoy increasing population and declining resources.
Of course our "anti-government" Republicans are not content to take away our economic freedoms.They want government mandates to replace individual freedon in decisions about healthcare, religion, and speech.
What about the Democrats? Well they are complicit in out of control spending, but they don't preach about limited government and lower taxes, much less moral superiority (Can you say Larry Craig, Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, Ted Stevens, Dennis Hastert, Tom Delay...?)
At least Republicans know the difference between Shiites's and Suni's. Woops. Hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives to replace one with the other in Iraq. Welcome President Al Sadr.
What about healthcare, science, the economy, the environment, foreign relations...?
Nice stewardship "W".
Well, we elected a President who seems to have intellect and compassion. He seems to want to return government to the people. He seems to appreciate the role of science, the arts, and education in Americaan life. He has a plan to transform the economy and put us back on the path of world leadership.
Yes we can.
Lee
Monday, December 8, 2008
USA Today
Today's USA editorial should have outraged all world citizens. The man responsible for Iraq, the global economic crisis, soaring deficits, environmental destruction, and the unplanning of the family isn't done. He is now (actually his cohorts are since he is clueless) proposing rules to:
1. Put coal burning power plants near national parks.
2. Put mining waste in streams and valleys.
3. Overturn the ban on concealed weapons in national parks.
4. Expand ability of healthcare workers to deny women needed care.
So while burdening our children with trillions of dollars of debt that must be paid back in years when the country and world are managing declining resources and increasing population, the Republicans believe our biggest problems are that women have too much freedom, national parks are too quiet and clean, and not enough people are shooting each other.
When will they ever learn?
Lee
1. Put coal burning power plants near national parks.
2. Put mining waste in streams and valleys.
3. Overturn the ban on concealed weapons in national parks.
4. Expand ability of healthcare workers to deny women needed care.
So while burdening our children with trillions of dollars of debt that must be paid back in years when the country and world are managing declining resources and increasing population, the Republicans believe our biggest problems are that women have too much freedom, national parks are too quiet and clean, and not enough people are shooting each other.
When will they ever learn?
Lee
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