Obama's First Stumble

It had to happen.

It's kind of a relief.

Nobody's perfect.

The bailout/stimulus proposal which came out this week won't work!

It's not Barack's fault. He needs to rely on his advisers even as he occasionally transcends them.

It's really not their fault either. They don't know any better. No one told them that their failed models need updating.

But it'a too important to ignore. Between the Federal Budget and potential stimuli/bailouts, there are trillions of dollars at stake. More importantly, there is the opportunity to transform the economy into one that is sustainable and more just.

We are at the edge of a precipice that we created, and we only get one chance to step back and save the economy.

Does it make sense to continue to spend government money based on analysis which has proven to be wrong so many times?

Would it make sense to allocate a small portion of new government spending on the development of a new structure for public policy analysis which has proven itself many times?

The answers are obvious.

There is a team of the best minds in the fields of particle physics, complexity science, actuarial science, and computer science ready to be assembled. They can build a model with the best data mining, enterprise risk management, dynamic financial analysis, data visualization, demographic, probability, and management analytics available.

Such a model can supplement existing economic, financial and public policy models in determining where spending will have optimal effect, what the uncertainties are, how to make adjustments dynamically, how to handle interactions, and all the other factors existing models ignore or miss.

The best minds in Washington are doing their best, but is isn't good enough. Some of the programs proposed will have some positive impact, but no one knows how much, or whether more innovative approaches would have much more effect.

What if we find, that using the best analytics possible, the impact of bailout and stimulus activity can be increased 100 fold or more over the next decade?

Should we at least consider it?

The global economy is collapsing.

Social Security is effectively bankrupt.

The healthcare system is crumbling under its own weight.

The deficit is dangerous, particularly if forecasts of the future US economy are distorted.

None of these issues are adequately addressed in proposals made to date.

The Federal Budget, along with all bailout and stimulation activity is a complex system which impacts a web of other complex systems. Government spending impacts the healthcare system, the infrastructure system, the prison system, the retirement system, the welfare system, the education system, and a variey of other systems, not to mention foreign relations.

Each of these systems has subsystems like housing, transportation, energy, goods, services, environment, medicine, and so on.

No model in place in Washington can deal with the interconnections, demographics, uncertainties, management, and data requirements of such a complex network.

We can transform the economy successfully . We can evolve into a country with sustainable and just results.

We have the intellectual resources.

We have the technical resources.

Yes we do.

Lee