A new (2009) Start

Today we will start the process of making this blog coherent. After 38 blogs, it is time for structure. Let's start with a summary of where we are.

The first few blogs focused on the global financial crisis and the fact that policymakers are not aware of or utilizing the best tools available by which to detect and resolve such crises.

Models which have been available for decades could have headed off and mitigated the current crisis if policymakers had had the wisdom and foresight to use them.

These models are being used in places like Santa Fe, Champaign, Ann Arbor, and Boston to solve deep problems. As opposed to the simplistic assumtions used by the Fed and Citibank, these models use the mathematical and computer structures developed in the most complex analysis being done, those being utilized in the area of particle physics.

Rather than assuming a simple world of normal curves and linear relationships, these models can allow reality to define itself. What we find is that much of reality is nonlinear and nonnormal. (As Dick Cheney might say, "Big time non normality and non linearity").

Not that we want to eliminate the use of Modern Portfolio Theory and its components like Black-Scholes and CAPM. Nor do we suggest that traditional econometric modeling has no place. It's just that without the refining power of complexity and actuarial science, they are pretty worthless, as recent and not so recent events have shown.

The next few blogs are kinda fun. The lack of logic used by talking heads and politicians is subjected to a case study, the (hopefully) successful nomination of Caroline Kennedy for New York Senator. The hypocrisy of the political class, particularly Republicans (and their spiritual leader, Tim Lehaye) in expanding government debt and obligations without paying for it is chronicled.

The Great Conversation from Plato to Pirsig is discussed in the context of recent findings in string theory and quantum mechanics. Saintly figures like Martin, Gibran, Jesus, Gandhi, and Wiesel (can you believe Madoff ripped HIM off?) are quoted for their wisdom.

Above all, this initial set of blogs is meant to show that the search for truth, beauty and justice is not only still alive, but well, and that we are closer than we have ever been to the true understanding which is needed for the ultimate unity to become manifest.

The next few blogs will provide structure for the ongoing conversation. We will look at education and how it can be reconstituted to provide real wisdom. We will do the same for politics, sports, and economics.

Then we will begin the journey to truth as laid out in Harmonious Universe...see paradigmactuaries.com.

Lee