For months I have been trying to build a metaphysic 14o characters at a time.
How do we synthesize Platonic Forms, Quantum Science, Fractal Geometry, Complex Emergence, Actuarial Science, String Theory, Healthcare Reform, Econometrics, CAPM, Hilbert Space and Schrodinger Waves 140 characters at a time?
Go to twitter.com, philosophize and see.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Monday, May 11, 2009
Saturday, April 4, 2009
The Story of Philosophy
The story of philosophy begins at creation flows through Plato and Kant and culminates in the quantum revolution. The story of science goes on, of course, but physics has transcended the Platonic Forms, Kantian Categories, Hegelian Spirit, Humean Skepticism, Cartesian Dualism, Roussean Romanticism and so on.
Of course Sartrean existence is still relevant as we have still not penetrated the human condition scientifically.
Philosophy of course could reorganzie to become relevant again, but only as a handmaiden. Someone has to work on the implications of multiple dimensions, entanglement, interconnected fields, probability waves, vibrating strings, symmetry and so on...and hypothesize metaphysical implications..but only based on what we know through math and science.
When we combine the mathematics of particle physics, complexity and economics we have a foundation for philosophy based on all we know. Such a philosophy can show the way to a better world.
Yes we can.
Lee
Of course Sartrean existence is still relevant as we have still not penetrated the human condition scientifically.
Philosophy of course could reorganzie to become relevant again, but only as a handmaiden. Someone has to work on the implications of multiple dimensions, entanglement, interconnected fields, probability waves, vibrating strings, symmetry and so on...and hypothesize metaphysical implications..but only based on what we know through math and science.
When we combine the mathematics of particle physics, complexity and economics we have a foundation for philosophy based on all we know. Such a philosophy can show the way to a better world.
Yes we can.
Lee
Monday, March 23, 2009
Matt Taibbi
It's refreshing when a reporter "gets it". In the current Rolling Stone, Taibbi portays the global financial crisis in the context of the AIG mess. He patiently dissects the complexities in an entertaining and educational way.
" A CDO (collateralized-debt obligation) is like a box full of diced-up assets...What the inventors of the CDO did is to divide up the box into groups...To get AAA ratings, the CDO's relied...on crazy mathematical formulas...
As banks and other investors of all kinds took on more and more in CDO's...they needed some way to hedge their massive bets..."
That's where AIG enters. They began selling Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) which insured the value of the CDO's. For a small premium relative to the potential risk, the CDS guarantees the insured asset.
The type of insured asset which became most prominent in the early 2000's was the mortgage. AIG guaranteed mortgages through their CDS's.
Because this activity had been essentially unregulated, AIG could sell an almost unlimited number of CDS's without any financial backup. As a result they exposed themselves to losses beyond the scope of their massive balance sheet.
Back to the mathematical models, it wan't supposed to happen. According to the models, CDO's and CDS's couldn't default at the rates they ultimately did. The models didn't take account of non-historical patterns, like a collapse of the U S housing market.
OOPS.
As Taibbi reports, the rest is history. AIG's debt rating fell requiring them to cough up assets as collateral at an alarming rate. Now the government is in the derivative business in an attempt to undo the mess.
Can we do it?
Yes we can.
Lee
" A CDO (collateralized-debt obligation) is like a box full of diced-up assets...What the inventors of the CDO did is to divide up the box into groups...To get AAA ratings, the CDO's relied...on crazy mathematical formulas...
As banks and other investors of all kinds took on more and more in CDO's...they needed some way to hedge their massive bets..."
That's where AIG enters. They began selling Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) which insured the value of the CDO's. For a small premium relative to the potential risk, the CDS guarantees the insured asset.
The type of insured asset which became most prominent in the early 2000's was the mortgage. AIG guaranteed mortgages through their CDS's.
Because this activity had been essentially unregulated, AIG could sell an almost unlimited number of CDS's without any financial backup. As a result they exposed themselves to losses beyond the scope of their massive balance sheet.
Back to the mathematical models, it wan't supposed to happen. According to the models, CDO's and CDS's couldn't default at the rates they ultimately did. The models didn't take account of non-historical patterns, like a collapse of the U S housing market.
OOPS.
As Taibbi reports, the rest is history. AIG's debt rating fell requiring them to cough up assets as collateral at an alarming rate. Now the government is in the derivative business in an attempt to undo the mess.
Can we do it?
Yes we can.
Lee
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The AIG Debacle
Rome is burning and our leaders are stumbling over each other about $150 million in bonuses. These are the same politicians who have quadrupled the federal deficit since 1980. Reagan and the two Bushes produced three times more deficit than all prior President's (yes going back to George Washington).
$150m million is 1/10% of $150 billion. Politicians no longer even read briefs on $150 billion in spending. Does anyone believe they really care about AIG's bonuses?
$150m million is 1/10% of $150 billion. Politicians no longer even read briefs on $150 billion in spending. Does anyone believe they really care about AIG's bonuses?
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
The $70 trillion question
What do you get when you have a $5 trillion spending agenda and a $65 trillion entitlement deficit?
The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.
Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.
Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.
Lee
The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.
Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.
Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.
Lee
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Holistic Stimulus
It all should be done at once.
The idea of stimulus spending is to stimulate economic growth. Does anyone believe that will happen if we just dump money into exisitng systems which are failing?
That's why the President wisely wants to reform healthcare, education, lobbying, earmarks, and other dimensions of spending simultaneously with stimuli and bailouts.
When 5% of $ 1 trillion goes to "healthcare", it can have $0 effect, $50 billion effect, or $500 billion effect. It all depends on the microfoundations.
Similarly with infrastructure, energy, science and welfare. When we talk about $4 trillion in total spending, how it flows will make the difference between nirvana and doomsday. We could end up with a collapsed, unsustainable economy or a vibrant, sustainable one.
The choice is ours.
Are we willing to invest in models which will show how flows can best be directed to produce a sustainable economy?
Yes we are.
Lee
The idea of stimulus spending is to stimulate economic growth. Does anyone believe that will happen if we just dump money into exisitng systems which are failing?
That's why the President wisely wants to reform healthcare, education, lobbying, earmarks, and other dimensions of spending simultaneously with stimuli and bailouts.
When 5% of $ 1 trillion goes to "healthcare", it can have $0 effect, $50 billion effect, or $500 billion effect. It all depends on the microfoundations.
Similarly with infrastructure, energy, science and welfare. When we talk about $4 trillion in total spending, how it flows will make the difference between nirvana and doomsday. We could end up with a collapsed, unsustainable economy or a vibrant, sustainable one.
The choice is ours.
Are we willing to invest in models which will show how flows can best be directed to produce a sustainable economy?
Yes we are.
Lee
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