Wednesday, December 31, 2008

The Math of Reality

The Santa Fe Institute (SFI) and The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) are poised to assist the Obama Administration in the greatest transformation of the US economy in over a century. Prior economic revolutions, whether the automobile, the computer, or the steam engine have emerged from a narrow sector of society. As we approach 2009, all sectors are ready for a revolution...a creative destruction.

Obama is on the right path. He sees that by transforming existing financial, manufacturing, and other sectors he can begin a growth spurt of unprecedented levels. The SFI and NECSI can be sure he has the tools to get there.

In NECSI reflections on 2008, the application of complex systems thinking to large scale problems was noted. NECSI has worked on identifying factors key to the understanding of the current global economic crisis. It has uncovered elements of the healthcare system which, properly aligned, provide dramatic improvements in meeting health and financial goals of the system as a whole.

Likewise, the SFI has made dramatic advances in the understanding of and the development of practical applications of systems thinking.

Using understanding of mathematical patterns derived from the study of the smallest components of reality, the atom and its constituents, they have developed methodologies critical to the resolution of deep problems in more complex systems like the human body and society at large.

Self-Organizaton is one of the conceptual frameworks which have proven valuable in this new approach to understanding. When events cascade, as has recently happened with the global economy, standard economic and financial modes are rendered worthless. Self-Organization helps explain why such results occur, using notions like heavy tailed distributions and power laws.

Agent Based Modeling is another complexity science tool which allows for the transcendence of traditional assumptions of classical statistics. Rather than attempting to find traditional mathematical structures to mimic reality, such tools allow reality to inform and define the mathematics itself.

Combined with data mining and visualizaton advances and tools of actuarial science which allow for demographic and credibility adjustments, these complexity science structures provide a bridge to an analytics for the upcoming century.

As the Obama team begins to address the deep problems plaguing all elements of American culture, it will discover the enormous power and utility of the advanced modeling now largely confined to labs, universities, and organizatons on the cutting edge of society.

It will see the need for such tools and begin to import them into daily decision making. Society will be transformed and the economy will grow while meeting environmental, social, and resource needs.

Yes we can.

Lee

Friday, December 26, 2008

2008 in the Rear View Mirror

Goodbye to 2008...8 years of W...Iraq...Global Economic Crisis...Madoff...Spitzer...Blago...When will they ever learn?

Starting with Reagan, Republican Administrations have quadrupled the Federal Budget Deficit, even accepting government (versus reasonable) accounting rules. From Washington to Carter, the US government had run up "only" about $900 billion in deficit. (Yes, less than a trillion $)

By 1992 (Can you say Bush Sr?. Where is Hunter Thompson when we need him?) it was $4 trillion. After a break during a Democratic Administration, the deficit began to explode again.

Now it is "officially" about $10 trillion.

People who actually understand economics and accounting are actually putting it in excess of $50 trillion if we count deficits in "entitlements" like Social Security, Medicare and Veterans Benefits.

The reasons for such treasonous Republican management of the American economy are painfully transparent. They never met a war they didn't like, or a tax they did. And they couldn't care less about waste in government spending.

The results are as disgusting as they are real. Our children and their children will be saddled with a financial burden at the same time they are coping with declining resources and increasing human dependency.

They will face a world of danger with military resources drained by senseless wars.

(Does it really matter if we turn Iraq over to Al Sadr, a Shiite, from Hussein, a Sunni?

Of course, Republicans aren't concerned about the future because they are about to float naked up to heaven in the presence of people like Tim LeHaye.

Luckily, there is hope. America has elected a true leader who has a vision and integrity. He can take our country back to the principles of the Founding Fathers.

Yes he can!

See my model at paradigmactuaries.com

Lee

Thursday, December 25, 2008

The Essence of Christmas

Joy to the World...Silent Night...

How Christmas songs inspire.

Not just Christians... every one open to the idea that there is somethng beyond our physical senses.

John Denver's Rocky Mountain High, Bob Dylan's Blowin' in the wind, Simon and Garfunkle's Bridge over Troubled Waters...all call us to a reality beyond ourselves.

Martin Luther King thought religion at its best was inclusive. All of humanity, all being, share a common bond.

Jesus looked at as the manifestation of the spirit of goodness is a figure all can adore. When contemplating his essence, Christians strive to understand ultimate reality, the source of being.

At the beginning all was one...perfect symmetry ...a unity transcending the coming diversity.

Physicists have found a world of wonder at the core of being. Everything is made up of atoms. Atoms are made up of a virtual cloud of electrons orbiting a nucleus consisting of clouds of quarks.

There are not words or images to describe the core of reality .Only mathematical stuctures and the metaphors created to try to articulate any associated meaning.

The quarks and electrons themselves may be embedded in an interconnected, multidimensional, clouds of entangled wisps of nothingness.

So when we feel a transcendent joy in a work of music or art, when the smile of a stranger penetrates our being, when the suffering of a child rocks our soul...it may be our esence reacting to a transcendent force our minds cannot comprehend.

A version of the Golden Rule is at the core of most belief systems. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Is that a manifestation of a promordial urge to unify with all being?

As we leave this Christmas season and return to our separate worlds, is it possible that the Christmas Spirit can be a universal force which leads to global peace. Regardless of our belief system, can we strive to do unto others...?

Yes we can.

Lee

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Merry Christmas

A time to celebrate peace, joy, love, forgiveness, compassion.

Love thy neighbor as thyself.

Be a good Samaritan.

Don't be a hypocritical Pharisee.

Cast the first stone...IF you're without sin.

Good words for politicians to live by.

Amazingly, those who profess their faith grandly seem to follow none of the above. They haven't met a war they don't like or a poor person they do.

They reject anyone they perceive as unlike them, and project god in their own image.

They cast stones in every direction while sinning in the dark shadows of their miserable lives.

They love theoretical people, but walk by those suffering in front of them.

But, hey, it's the season of joy, and we have a new President.

Three cheers for the American dream.

Lee

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Bailouts and Stimuli for Paradigm Actuaries

Paradigm Actuaries is an actuarial consulting firm and think tank devoted to the application of advanced scientific thinking to the resolution of deep commercial and governmental problems.

The true U.S. government deficit is approaching $60 trillion. Bailout and simulus packages totaling trillions of dollars will be needed to put America back on the path to prosperity.

Here's what I could do with $4 million, a mere 4/10000 % of $1 trillion, using a team of geniuses currently left unemployed by an Administration which rewards ignorance and punishes competence and integrity:

1. Solve the healthcare crisis by building an Agent Based Model which shows the optimal flows of funds and services.

2. Solve the budget crisis by showing optimal flows of revenues and expenditures over time probabilistically.

3. Stimulate the economy by showing where bailout and stimulus money in conjunction with existing government expenditure, would have the most impact on long term national welfare.

4. Resolve the global economic crisis by introducing financial models based on complexity and actuarial science which replace the standard failed models of the past.

5. Bring about a harmonious universe by demonstrating how expenditures on the deep sciences will uncover the deepest secret of life, that everything is connected in a web of unity.

For more, go to my website, paradigmactuaries.com.

Lee

Monday, December 22, 2008

Logic and the Caroline Kennedy Controversy

Do you know why talking heads never progress intellectually or pragmatically? Because they don't understand simple logic.

The current discussion about Caroline Kennedy's "qualifications" to be a New York Senator provides a paradigmatic example.

Caroline Kennedy is smart, decent, charismatic, compassionate, intellectually honest, and accomplished.

She is also part of an amazing family.

What experience is it that she lacks? Wheeling and dealing with slimy lobbyists? Wheeling and dealing with other hacks to pass legislation which weakens the American economy?

Hitler and Stalin had a lot of experience. So do Cheney, Mugabe and Rod Blagojevich.

Strom Thurmond and Wilbur Mills had a lot of experience.

On the other hand, it was claimed that Barack Obama, John Kennedy and George Washington lacked experience.

The tragedy is that when political hacks blather on about lack of experience, our great free press representatives just sit there like deer in the headlights.

Why couldn't we hear something like the following just once?

Representative Slimebag, you say Caroline Kennedy is not qualified to represent the State of New York. Which of the following is in your chain of logic:

1. All experienced people are intelligent and just.
2. Caroline is not experienced.
3. Therefore, Caroline is not intelligent and just.

Well, we can see several flaws here...

Many experienced people are neither intelligent or just.
Caroline Kennedy is experienced, just not in the way you care about.
Since 1. is false, 3. is meaningless.

Let's try again.

1. Only experienced people can be effective senators.
2. Larry Craig and Ted Stevens are experienced.
3. Therefore, only people like them should be senators.

Well, you get the idea.

What we need is a Federal Department of Logic to beat down all the sophomoric opinions which pollute the airwaves. Anytime there is a debate over something that matters, war, social security, education, health, agriculture, bailouts, welfare...we subject the various arguments to fairly rigorous testing, including:

1. Is your logic fuzzy, classical, boolean, quantum, or some other mode?
2. Do you follow Frege, Cantor, Russell, Turing or Hilbert?
3. Did you use truth tables or truth trees in developing your argument?
4. Did you check for tautologies, contradictions, inconsistencies...?
5. Did you use the six easy sentential logic statements or the ten hard ones?

More later.

Lee

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Christmas 2008 Slate Stories

Like the Huffington Post, Slate covers the issues of the day.

Huckabee, Ashcroft, Madoff, Blago, Warren, Mueller, Craig...

That's quite a lineup...A phony Evangelical who pretends to be hip, an uptight hypocrite who wants to end freedom as we know it, a man so greedy he robbed a saint who survived the holocaust, a politician so self-absorbed he's willing to take the state of Illinois down with him, a minister who tries to straddle condemnation with forgiveness, an incompetent pedant, and a perverted Senator who claims to be (he may actually be right) a typical Republican guardian of traditional values...

Of course the good news is that soon we will have a President who cares about art, science, the environment and justice. Hopefully we will have a Senator from New York from a family that personifies hard earned hope.

Developments in the sciences have the potentionl of a transformation of the global economy which promises a new level of prosperity. The LHC may find the elusive "God Particle" for which Fermilab has been searching That may be the key to understanding deep secrets of reality which could illuminate a path to harmony.

Combined with advances in computer technology being made in places like the Santa Fe Institute and the impact of Obama's stimulus plan, we may be on the way to a growth economy the likes of which we have not seen for decades.

Yes we can.

Lee

Zen and the Art of Africa

Robert Pirsig sought an understanding of quality and value in ZAMM and Lila. What he had in mind was not a superficial definition and essence, but a deep and resonant revelation.

Quality as a source of Aristotelian happiness, Platonic ideal, Sartrean existence...which transcends our understanding in the way the essence of particle physics does.

In America, quality can be realized in the free pursuit of excellence. What can be said of Africa?

The Congo wallows in Civil War, the legacy of Mobutu's incompetence and corruption. We all know about events in Rwanda. South Africa's response to AIDS was nothng short of bizarre. Robert Mugabe has set a new standard for evil arrogance in Zimbawe. Kenya...

Can African's dream of quality or value in the midst of the horrors visited upon them?

Of course, Africa is not alone. Many parts of the globe harbor hunger, torture, terror and fear.

Can anyone find quality when someone is being denied justice?

The essence of recent findings in particle physics is that everything is connected. At our core and at the core of everything in the cosmos is the nucleus of the atom which itself is composed of fuzzy, probabilistic, interconnected, multidimensional clouds of ethereal structures. Nonlocality and entanglement are inherent in the essence of being...a web of connections

How can we ignore the destruction of fellow beings or the environment in which we exist when we are all so profoudly connected?

The answer is we can't. For true liberation we must be each other's keeper. Only then will we know quality, value, harmony, agape and peace.

Lee

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Christmas 2008 Huffington Post Stories

What a blog...

US joins other third world countries in global ban of homosexuality...

Goes along with recent Anti-Reproductive Freedom and Anit-Environment initiatives.

Rick Warren does the invocation and Paul Weyrich dies...

Obama and Biden stuck with a global economic collapse and last minute Bush anti-human, anti-envoronment rules...Oh, and a $60 trillion budget deficit if you do the math.

Of course we can talk about Blago and Spitzer, the latter having sent all types of "criminals" to the slammer for using complicated government approved accounting and tax rules...

And then there's The House of Saddam, New Orleans, SEC Porn, Limbaugh, Paulson, Franken, Haggard, Lieberman, Madoff, GM and global warming...

Ken Starr is back to fight another battle in his war against sex. Bristol Palin's Mother in Law continues the family tradition of promoting good values.

Neocon Frank Gaffny continues his battle against truth and fairness...

Africa seems to be continuing to do well. Mugabe hangs in there (shades of Blago)...Violence rocks Kenya...

On the optimistic side, Caroline may become a Senator, Obama is nominating some real scientists to help move the country into a future lit by wisdom, and our New Secretary of Labor is a Profile in Courage...

As George Bernard Shaw (and Bobby and John) said, "Some people see things as they are and say why. But I dream things that never were and say why not?"

Lee

Friday, December 19, 2008

For Spacious Skies

What would the Founding Fathers think? Did they devote the best years of their lives to create a nation which spawns a generation which squanders the bounty of future generations?

Look Kids, a $60 trillion deficit for you to fix. And oh yeah, do it with diminished resources and a ravaged natural environment.

When Jefferson worked with the others to frame a government where justice, liberty and the pursuit of happiness were possible, he drew from deep philosophical foundations.

Platonic ideals, Aristotelian teleology, Kantian Categories, Shakespeare's Complementarities, Locke's Natural Law, Mill's Utilitarianism...he challenged us to pursue truth in the search for justice.

Martin Luther King understood this. In his PhD thesis, King said, "Philosophy necessarily asks the question of reality as a whole...the structure of Being....". In his letter from a Birmingham Jail, he wrote, "Just as Socrates felt it was necessary to create a tension in the mind so that individuals could rise from the bondage of myths...to the unfettered realm of critical analysis...we must see the need of having nonviolent gadflies..."

And when Martin died, Bobby said, quoting Aeschylus, "...we need to tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of this world."

When was the last time you heard one of the guardians of our freedoms articulate such ideas?

Socrates said that if he was wise it was because he understood how much he didn't know.

Can you hear Sarah Palin or George Bush saying that?

Lee

The Obama Transition and the Press

The economy is collapsing. The planet is in peril. People are dying in wars with no purpose.

After decades of flawed leadership we have a President-Elect who seems to understand how to return America to the greatness envisioned by the Founding Fathers.

Transforming the economy by partnering with the private sector to develop sustainable employment. Developing intenationaal relations in a way that minimizes the need for war. Respecting the rights of all Americans and protecting the environment, responsible government spending.

So what is the press ,which has been dormant while all these injustices developed focused upon?

Whether anyone who has ever come within a mile of the President -Elect has ever been within a mile of Rod Blagojevich.

Like everyine else, I appreciate the entertainment value of a good scandal. I also abhor the injustice and hypocrsy which has governed most of our institutions for decades.

Couldn't the press spend a little time exposing problems that matter...like underfunding Social Security and Medicare, like sending young Americans to die in nation building debacles, like the destruction of what is left of the America's purple mountain majesties by a President who expects to be transported to heaven momentarily.

OK, Obama picked Rick Warren for the Invocation. So what?

Maybe it is time for all of us to take a deep breath and remember the words of The Prophet, "...I say that even as the holy and righteous cannot rise beyond the highest which is in each one of you, so the wicked and the weak cannot fall lower than the lowest which is in you also..."

And exactly who is it that Caroline Kennedy should look to who has experience superior to her own? Joe Lieberman? Richard Shelby? Saxby Chambliss? Sam Brownback?

When did hypocrisy and ignorance become the qualities we revere in those who will determine the kind of world in which our children will live?

Lee

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Sweet Caroline

That's right, Neil Diamond's classic song was about Caroline Kennedy.

Is it possible she will enter the arena. Can we dream of Camelot again as she and Barack remake the American landscape?

So many disappointments, JFK, MLK, Bobby, John John.

Time magazine said "...history cracked open..." in 1968.

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose...Where have you gone Joe Dimaggio?"

"Ask not what your country can do for you...I have a dream..."

I know, Republicans sneer at any sign of hope. They want to dwell in the underworld of fear and dread. But a new day is upon us. It is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius. Sounds familiar.

Anyway, after four years of Obama could we have four years of Kennedy?

The two best presidents since Lincoln could be a non-white man and a woman. And America could rise from the ashes.

OK...perhaps a bit hyperbolic, but who can blame us for a little ecstasy after our long, forty year, nightmare?

Transform the economy. Revive the arts. Push the boundaries of science. Most importantly, create a possibility for a future for our children which is at least as good as we have enjoyed.

Lee

Monday, December 15, 2008

Harmonious Universe

It's time to begin the journey.


What do you get when you combine the following ideas...


Platonic Forms and Republic, Aristotle's Mean, Bacon's Idols, Aquinas' Scholasticism, Descartes Duality, Locke's Liberty, Hume's Skepticism, Spinoza's Pantheism, Leibniz' Monads, Hobbes Leviathan, Berkeley's Idealism, Voltaire's Candide, Shakespeare's Dualities, Kant' s Categories...

Hegel's Spirit, Schopenhauer's Will, Montesquie's Spirit, Mill's Utility, Rousseau's General Will, Smith's Invisible Hand, Sartre's Existence, Jame's Pragmatism, Newton's Mechanical Universe, Kierkgaard's Either-Or, Marx's Materialism, Nietzche's Will, Heidigger's Being, Husserl' s Phenomenology, Emerson's Transcendentalism...?


What if you add...


Pirsig's Quality, Einstein's Relativity, Carson's Silent Spring, Galbraith's Affluent Society, Camus' Rebel, Planck's Quanta, Freud's Tripartite Mind, Dirac's Sea, Pareto Optimality, Heisenberg's Uncertainty, Walrasian Equilibrium, Schrodinger's Wave, Martin Luther King's Dream, Pauli's Exclusion, Reich's Con III, Hilbert Space, Gell-Mann's Eightfold Way...?


What if we throw in some fields, fractals, particles, waves, QED, QCD, QFT, spaces, groups, symmetries, transformations, topologies, Lagrangians, Hamiltonians, electron clouds, photons, quarks, strings, Feynman Diagrams, Patches, Landscapes, entanglement, emergence, demographics, credibility, ...?


Justice, Beauty, Truth, Unity, Connection, Holism, Love Being


The journey goes on....


Harmonious Universe.

Lee

Republican Think Tank

Now that's an interesting idea. What in the world do they think about? How their heroes, the Bushes and Reagan, have quadrupled the budget deficit in a mere 20 years of governance?

When Reagan came to power in 1980 the deficit wasn't even a trillion dollars. "W" has done that in a year.

By 1992, when Clinton came unto office, it had ballooned to over $4 trillion. Under "W" it grew another $4 trillion to $10 trillion.

The unpaid obligations run up by Bush will add at least another trillion. And that doesn't count the unfunded programs like Social Security and Medicare which continue to balloon out of control. The Medicare Part D disaster which came in under Bush will add billions.

Oh yeah, what about tax reform and regulatory relief for small business?

Of course, the $10 trillion figure often used for the debt is as phony as Groucho Marx's glasses. The true debt under reasonable accounting standards is probably at least five times as high. Much of the difference is in unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations resulting from benefit increases which were not offset by revenue increases.

Welcome to our world children. You must fund the programs we enjoyed in a global economy which will enjoy increasing population and declining resources.

Of course our "anti-government" Republicans are not content to take away our economic freedoms.They want government mandates to replace individual freedon in decisions about healthcare, religion, and speech.

What about the Democrats? Well they are complicit in out of control spending, but they don't preach about limited government and lower taxes, much less moral superiority (Can you say Larry Craig, Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, Ted Stevens, Dennis Hastert, Tom Delay...?)

At least Republicans know the difference between Shiites's and Suni's. Woops. Hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives to replace one with the other in Iraq. Welcome President Al Sadr.

What about healthcare, science, the economy, the environment, foreign relations...?

Nice stewardship "W".

Well, we elected a President who seems to have intellect and compassion. He seems to want to return government to the people. He seems to appreciate the role of science, the arts, and education in Americaan life. He has a plan to transform the economy and put us back on the path of world leadership.

Yes we can.

Lee

Sunday, December 14, 2008

December Sunday

It's Sunday again...Home of the talkingheadosphere. The blogosphere is becoming the Blagosphere.

Who knew? A crooked politicican. Next thing you know we'll find a greedy businessman. Or a stupid athlete. Or an entertainer with a drug problem.

As we watch the wizards of pontification droll on about the being and nothingness of the political sphere it is interesting to raise our heads to listen to a more promising group of thinkers.

The January 2009 Discover issue about the Year in Science has articles about medicine, physics, energy, and astronomy. These people actually back their arguments with relevant facts.

Take the physicists (please:).

Turns out that The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) which debuted in the fall of 2008 is looking for the God Particle. One can only imagine that this is harder than finding a crooked politician.

In addition to possibly swallowing us all into a massive black hole, the LHC may find supersymmetric particles That would be a huge step toward a Theory of Everything (TOE).

Now that seems like something worth a little time and money.

Of course, the Bush Administratoin is so busy trying to implement the vision of Tim Lehaye that it has no time or resources for such drivel. They even want to cut back on such basic research in places like Fermlab, Argonne and Los Alamos.

This of course is not the first Bush Administration to take on such waste. Daddy killed a facility in Texas which might have already found the secret of the universe. Apparantly it was too close to one of the landing paths he wanted to preseve for his subsequent skydiving.

Many people only care, of course, if they think a TOE would help them personally. They have perhaps forgottten (or God forbid never know) that reseach like this has been responsible for much of the advance made by the human species in recent years.

Health, wealth, the environment and defense are all beholden to advances which have been made in esoteric areas like quantum mechanics and complexity science.

Anyway, like you, I'm ready to settle in and start to absorb the pearls of wisdom which will be offered today by such scholars as Newt Gingrich, Bob Dole, and Mitch McConnell.

Lee

Saturday, December 13, 2008

The Dismal Science

Thomas Malthus is often credited with the notion that economics is a dismal science. In, An Essay on the Principle of Population..., he argues that population will always outstrip the resources necessary to sustain it.

Some would say that the subsequent centuries have shown him to be overly pessimistic, although poverty has been a fact of life for many world citizens forever.

In 2008 there are signs that the Malthusian vision may apply more broadly than just in "undeveloped" nations.

The world is awash in pollution, people, resource shortages, and other elements which could overwhelm the fragile systems which exist to nurture the human race.

The 6 billion people inhabiting the planet today are already feeling the pressure.

That number is expected to grow dramatically in the coming years. It is unclear from where the energy, water, and other resources needed to provide a decent life will come.

The basic framework for economic theory continues to be from Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations (1776). Modifications accomodating the depression era adjustments of Keynes and new mathematical structures of recent years have not changed the basic structure of economic theory.

Economics as taught and practiced today still assumes unlimited resources and negligible externalities. Needs of future generations are ignored. This not unlike the Federal Budget process which ignores the massive debts with which we are condemning future generations.

The Invisible Hand, like the General Will, is a wonderful metaphor, but it is not always operative.

Today we can do better. The analytical and information tools of complexity and actuarial science are available te lead us out of the wilderness. We can include demographic trends, probabilistic scenarios, multifractal models, and agent based methodologies which provide perspective on the complexities of our global economy.

We just need the will.

Lee

Friday, December 12, 2008

The Science of Philosophy

In The Story of Philosophy, Will Durant said, "...philosophy only accepts the hard and hazardous task of dealing with problems not yet open to the methods of science...good and evil, beauty and ugliness, order and freedom, life and death...".

The fact is, science and philosophy have been converging for decades. With developmnets in relativity theory, quantum mechanics, and complexity science in particular, the line between them has blurred or even disappeared.

The objects of science are as ethereal as the traditional objects of philosophy. Mind, matter, waves, particles, subjective, objective, fields, spaces, all transcendent entities. Of course the mathematics behind the scientific ideas is more developed than that behind idas traditonally considered philosophical. But those very mathematical structures are themselves ethreal.

More importantly, mathematical structures are emerging which are bridging the gap between the mathematics of science and the mathemtics of philosophy.

What is a Dirac Sea? A Schrodinger Wave? A Fractal?

What is a Lagrangian? A Hamiltonian? A Fourier Transform?

Because Calabi-Yau manifolds break symmetries and compact topologies "properly"they are often best for some versions of string theory. Lagrangians may be invariant under an SU(2) symmetry or a U(1) transformation.

The Golden Rule is universal if we are all connected.

Lee

Art and the Science of Zen

In Shakespeare and the Common Understanding, Rabkin shows how Shakespeare poses reality as , "...pairs of polar opposites...". He goes on to develop the notion of complementarity as a core world vision. "...there are phenomena which physicists can understand only by treating light as waves and others which they can interpret only by treating it as quanta...". Shakepeare's vision is portrayed in a discussion of Richard II, "...the complementarity of it protagonists virtues..."

In The Surrealist Revolution...Gershman says, "...The vital element in a myth...They express ...the feeling that there is a duality in nature...In a true surrealist work there is no message, only an invitation...to acknowledge the only true values in a fraudulent world, liberty, love and the poetry which expresses them...".

In the Theatre of the Absurd, Esslin says, "...The Theatre of the Absurd strives to express its sense of the senselessness of the human condition...striving for an integration between the subject-matter and the form in which it is expressed that separates the Theatre of the Absurd from the Existentialist Theatre".

The history of art, like that of science and philosophy is about a search for core values, truth, beauty, justice, love, harmony...Now, modern science has uncovered truths that transcend all historical thought. The twists and turns and dilemmas which surfaced in the historical search for truth are now seen in a new context.

As we are able to penetrate deeper and deeper into the nucleus of the atom what we find are mathematical structures and relationships which point to a multi-dimensional, interconnected universe. The fields, waves, quarks, photons, electrons and other fuzzy metaphors extracted from the mathematical and scientific data are just signs of a reality not to be understood by our senses or intellect.

What does this say about the nature of god...man...woman...being...? How do we now answer the age old questions...what is real...what is just...what is beautiful?

The answers are at least partially buried in the mathematical structures which continue to evolve and emerge at all levels of study.

Lee

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Zen and the Art of Particle Physics.

In Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Robert Pirsig says, "...ghosts and spirits are quite as real as atoms, particles, photons and quants...the laws of physics and science ..these are ghosts..."

What he wants to do is develop an all-encompassing notion which allows for the transcendence of the dualities which have split humanity and being. Art and Science, Romantic and Classic, Induction and Deduction, Subjective and Objective, all ways of dividing the world analytically and breaking syntheses.


The Big Bang may have been an event from which perfect symmetry exploded leading to our reality through a series of symmetry breaks. The original connections of the primordial elements may still exist in the elements which make up ourselves and our world.

There may be a unity underlying the apparant diversity we face. Notions from mathematics and science like Non Locality, Entanglement, Fields, Probability Waves, Uncertainty, Complementarity, Exclusion, Fractals, Emergence, Quarks, Topologies, Groups and Spaces all point to the reality of an interconnected, holistic universe.

Philosophical structures like Platonic Forms, Baconian Idols, Kantian Categories, Sartrean Existence, Rousseauean General Will, Hegelean Spirit, and Smith's Invisible Hand, like Pirsig's Quality/Value speak of a transcendence pointing to a similar unity of being.

Lee

Advanced Modeling and the Subprime Crisis

A December 10, 2008 Press Release of the Casualty Actuarial Society stated, "An over-reliance on models used in securitizing mortgage risks and a failure to question basic assumptions played a role in the subprime crisis...the models overlooked a number of things...that differences in the size of downpayment...increasing the pool of subprime borrowers...changing the terms of mortgages...would have a major impact."

Economic and financial models have proven to be seriously inadequate for decades. Actuarial and complexity science models have been precluded from serious use in much public policy decisionmaking. As a result the analysis being utilized by policy makers is seriously flawed.

It is no longer acceptable to ignore the advanced modeling which is available to supplement the flawed and outdated models being used in public policy analysis. The global economic collapse was a scenario that either actuarial or complexity science models could have generated before we were immersed in red ink. They remain available to get us out of the mess and avert the next one.

See my website, paradigmactuaries.com, for more.

Lee

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

The Essence of Being

Every once in awhile, a book comes along which changes everything.

Is the world ready for a book which responds to the deepest questions of humankind?

Ideas from all ages and cultures flow into a common vessel which empties into harmony.

At creation all was one. The original unity, the harmony manifest at creation, continues to resonate in all being. The fields, waves, particles and dimensions released at the big bang continue to have their primordial connection.

We are made up of the atoms manifest at creation. The perfect symmetry at creation encompassed an entanglement of all. That entanglement connects us with each other and with all being.


Discoveries in particle physics, complexity science, and actuarial science have revealed this hidden connection. Buried in the mathematical structures which emerged in the deep and applied sciences in recent years are connections which point to the possibility of a standard model of everything. That model starts at the interior of the nucleus of the atom and radiates out to the institutions of the global society.


A bottom up perspective on this marvelous vision begins with the clouds of waves and fields which dance in the nucleus of each atom in the universe. The mathematical structures which describe the interactions within and outside the atoms have been found to apply to more complex, emergent structures, including those on the path to life and consciousness.


A top down approach begins with the institutions of our global society and drills down to the smallest systems mathematics can describe. While some pieces of the puzzle are missing, there is the appearance of a mathematical structure which points to the possibility of a connectedness which can become a metaphysical starting point for a philosophy of being which places us in a web of harmony.


Stay tuned.


Lee

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Quantum Finance

One of the casualties of the current global economic crisis is traditional finance/economic theory.

A world of electronic interaction, declining resources, increasing population and terror threat are not amenable to 19th century modeling.

In My Life as a Quant, Emanual Derman says, "...some of the same forces that compelled physicists to move out of academia made Wall Street begin to endorse them...financial markets seemed to become more volatile...the mathematics of finance closely resembles the mathematics of physics... "

In Quantum Investing, Stephen Waite says, "In coming years it will be necessary for investors to be familiar with quantum physics...complexity theory...uncertainty lies at the heart of quantum theory...expect the unexpected..Nature appears to be far messier and more unpredictable than any single mathematical equation can capture."

Adam Smith's economics (modified slightly by Keynesian perspective) is no longer relevent. Nor is portfolio theory. Only a combination of physics, complexity science and actuarial science has a chance of helping policymakers find a way out of the global economic wilderness.

Lee

Monday, December 8, 2008

USA Today

Today's USA editorial should have outraged all world citizens. The man responsible for Iraq, the global economic crisis, soaring deficits, environmental destruction, and the unplanning of the family isn't done. He is now (actually his cohorts are since he is clueless) proposing rules to:

1. Put coal burning power plants near national parks.
2. Put mining waste in streams and valleys.
3. Overturn the ban on concealed weapons in national parks.
4. Expand ability of healthcare workers to deny women needed care.

So while burdening our children with trillions of dollars of debt that must be paid back in years when the country and world are managing declining resources and increasing population, the Republicans believe our biggest problems are that women have too much freedom, national parks are too quiet and clean, and not enough people are shooting each other.

When will they ever learn?

Lee

Greening America

"The problem of this dissertartion is to compare and evaluate the conceptions of God in the thinking of Paul Tillich and Henry Nelson Wieman". So begins Martin Luther King's PhD dissertation.

MLK's grounding in philosophy and religion informed his public policy perspective.

"Oftentimes have I heard you speak of one who commits a wrong as though he were not one of you, ...but I say that even as the holy and the righteous cannot rise beyond the highest which is in each one of you, so the wicked and the weak cannot fall lower than the lowest which is in you also".

Gibran's knowledge of the human condition transcends conventional wisdom.

"There was once a town in the heart of America where all life seemed to live in harmony with its surroundings ".

So begins Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, the book which changed our consciousness.

"There is a revolution coming. It will not be like revolutions of the past. It will originate with the individual and with culture and it will change the political structure only as its final act".

Charles Reich may finally be redeemed.

"The shortcomings of economics are not original error, but uncorrected obsolescence".

Galbraith redeemed after 50 years.

Scientific and mathematical developments in recent years have confirmed elements of the metaphysics of quality as articulated by Robert Pirsig in Zen and Lila.

"...the laws of physics and logic...the number system...they are ghosts...The law of gravity and gravity itself did not exist before Isaac Newton."

Two decades later, Michio Kaku wrote in Hyperspace, "The purpose of science is to peel back the layer of the appearance of objects to reveal their underlying nature...the laws of nature become simpler and more elegant when expressed in higher dimensions...In the hyperspace theory...everything we see...are nothing but vibrations in hyperspace...".

So, from MLK's PhD thesis to hyperspace, we see an underlying theme...unity...holism...harmony...and hope.

Lee

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Quantum Musings

In Quantum Society, Danah Zohar continued her exploration of quantum perspective. In Quantum Self, she talked about, "...the seething equivalence of matter and energy..." and develops a quantum worldview which, "...integrates the sense of self, others, nature and...the environment...".

Quantum Society expanded that worldview by talking about a social reality which is holistic, synthetic, spiritual, and emergent.

These themes echo those of two books probing the commonalities of Eastern Mysticism and deep physics.

In The Dancing Wu-Li Masters, Gary Zukav talks of "...Wu Li, the Chinese word for physics means patterns of organic energy...a worldview which the founders of Western Science...simply could not comprehend, but toward which virtually every physical theory of import in the twentieth century is pointing".

In The Tao of Physics, Fritjov Capra says, "...there is an essential harmony between the spirit of Eastern wisdom and Western Science...the way-or Tao-of physics can be a path with a heart...".

What we find when we probe the meaning of findings in particle physics in the twentieth century is that at the core of the nucleus of the atom(the building block of everything, including us) is a frothing, fuzzy virtuality which probabilistically emerges as mathematical structures on computer printouts.

Not very reassuring to those of us who want simple explanations of the ultimate elements.

The mathematics needed to probe the innerworkings of the atom portrays a subatomic world which consists of metaphorical entities like quarks, fields, photons, electrons, strings, mutliple dimensions, all entangled in an interconnected web of broken symmetries.

As we follow this sea of clouds up to molecules, substances, life, consciousness and society, the patterns become incomprehensibly complex, and words like fractals, topologies, symmetries, and boolean networks start to emerge.

In Strange Beauty, George Johnson illustrates how Murray Gell-Mann did for subatomic particles what Mendeleev had done for the elements. He developed an organizational scheme for them. He called the scheme The Eightfold Way, and it reduced the complexity of the myriad of particles known at the time to a much more simple structure.

In The Quark and the Jaguar, Gell-Mann talks about how quarks, the basic building blocks of the reality around us, lead to more complex structures. He goes on to discuss how world problems from the environment and economy to the political and military establishments can benefit from the application of new methodologies being developed in places like the Santa Fe Institute.

Actuarial Universe will explore the implications of such thoughts.

For more inforamtion go to my website, paradigmactuaries.com

Lee

Chaos and Complexity

Stuart Kauffman ends the first chapter of At Home in the Universe with the optimistic, "If we find general laws...it would be wise to be wise...We are all at home in the universe".

In Complexity, M. Mitchell Waldrop describes a movement within the scientific community which is,"...grappling with questions that defy all conventional categories...the vision of an underlying unity, a common theoretical framework for complexity that would illuminate nature and humankind alike."

In Chaos, James Gleick describes a movement which, "...eliminates the Laplacian fantasy of deterministic predictability...".

In Fire in the Mind, George Johnson talks of some the mysteries being explored by thinkers in Los Alamos and Santa Fe..."How does the Universe arise? How does life arise? Do the patterns found...hold some claim to universal truth"?

In the Info Mesa, Ed Regis explains how"...entrepreneurial scientists create practical and profitable applications...leading to new drugs and medical therapies..."

Are there more worthy, noble questions to ponder?

Do we ever hear our elected representatives or the press raising such issues when discussing public policy?

Wouldn't the Obama Administration be in a better position to coordinate the response to the global economic crisis by knowing about the interactions among the bailout, stimulus and budget actions being considered?

Yes we can!

Lee

Political Dialectic

Dialectic is a euphemism for what passes as political dialogue these days. Reporters can never seem to get behind the talking points. When was the last time you read an essay like Hunter Thompson used to write?

"La Bas. Down there. Where the beasts are all blind and the doomed scream all night...It is a special kind of hell for utterly failed politicians.

It is difficult for the ordinary voter to come to grips with the notion that a truly evil man , a truthless monster with the brains of a king rat and the soul of a cockroach is about to be sworn in as President..."

(Guess who?)

We watch Face the Nation, Meet the Press, This Week...gasping for a breath of honesty and intelligence, and come up with cramps. In the old days we could watch Bob Dole or Jesse Jackson lie and flip until we were blue in the face, but the notions of handlers and talking points have brought dishonesty to a whole new level.

When was the last time you heard a "journalist" ask a hack why they voted (over the last few years) to put our country $53 trillion in debt? What happened to the Social Security lockbox? Why is handing Iraq over to the Shiites from the Sunnies worth thousands of lives and (trillions?) of dollars?

Is it treasonous for a politician to talk about lowering taxes while voting to increase spending thereby weakening America's ability to defend itself when our children grow up?

Of course, if the only author you read is Tim Lehaye, this all makes sense, since Jesus is about to swoop down and gather up the faithful leaving the rest of us (non fundamentalist, dispensationalist, premillenial evangelical Christians) to suffer horribly.

No reason to worry about the environment or budget under that scenario. Seems like a good subject for some member of the media to pursue.

More later.

Lee

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Fuzzy Logic

A blog shoud be fun, enlghtening, profound, and true. My first blog will focus on the deep and metaphysical aspects of reality. This blog will look at the ironies and the ecstasies of the human condition.

Where did the spirit of John Denver go? What about George Carlin? Sam Kinison?

You fill up my senses like night in a forest. I have a dream. I dream things that never were and ask why not.

Life's absurdities should be faced with humor whenever possible. Come along for the ride.

Lee

Global Meltdown

It didn't have to happen. There are methodologies which could have been used to see the cascading effects of a housing meltdown in an environment of mortgage derivatives.

It needn't continue. Those same methodologies show how to move beyond the mess.

Complexity science has many dimensions. It utilizes mathematics from quantum mechanics and chaos theory. It cuts across traditional disciplines. It uses the latest computer techniques for analysis and data organizaton and visualization. It can be combined with the tools of actuairal science to form the most powerful analytical structure imagineable.

In a book entitled, "The Misbehaviour of Markets", Mandlebrot provides a "Fractal View of Risk...". He shows how, "the old way" (CAPM, Portfolio Theory, Black-Scholes...) assumes price variations can be modeled by random processes that follow "mild" patterns. He goes on to say that a more accurate, multifractal model "paves the way" to a new type of financial theory.

Power Law Distributions, Fat Tails, Cascades, Fractals, Turbulence, Topology, all examples of elements emphasized in the new model.

Mandlebrot illustrates the failure of traditional models by talking about the 1998 Russian collapse and its effect on world markets. Standard theory would put the probability of the collapse at one in twenty million.

He goes on to show the 1998 event was not that unusual. In 1987 the Dow fell almost 30%. According to the standard models , the likelihood of that was a number so small it was outside the scale of nature.


What were the odds of the current meltdown according to the standard theory? Probably close to zero. When will they ever learn?


Complexity scientists in places like Santa Fe, Chicago and Los Alamos have harnessed the power of computers and mathematics to the point where the most intractable problems can be considered. Practical problems of commerce, government and technology are routinely addressed in the context of complex systems.


The dynamic, nonlinear, agent based models developed by complexity scientists are ideally suited to the issues arising in an interconnected global economy. Our world of extreme events and high correlations, requires a new analytical toolbox.


The Obama Administration will begin in the midst of great economic turmoil. Budget deficits, unemployment, bailouts, stimulus packages, all part of an interconnected web of economic
factors. Standard economic models are useless in such a context.


Imagine a budget which recognizes the interconnectedness of traditional categories. Social Security, Healthcare, Welfare, all part of a web of resources attempting to enhance quality of life.

Bailouts, Stimulus packages, Fiscal and Monetary policies, all ways of trying to transform the economy into one which produces things people will buy.

By combining the power of actuarial and complexity science we can find a way out of the wilderness. We can create programs which will provide sustainable growth and improve quality of life.

We can find the promised land.

Lee

Zen and Harmonious Universe

Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance was concerned with what I would term "Local Quality". Quality in the way we look at work, play, and other life issues was the focus. When Pirsig talked of classic versus romantic perspective he emphasized a worldview which embraced the metaphysics of quality.

Harmonious Universe takes the notion of quality to the level of complex systems which determine "Global" quality. From the perspective of quantum mechanics and complexity science, Harmonious Universe shows how the universal qualities of beauty, truth and justice can emerge from a citizenry which embraces the interconnedtedness which is manifest in all being.

At the core of all being are the waves, fields and particles which interact in multidimensional space to become what we see, feel and are. The atoms of which all are made are composed of wavy electrons, connected quarks, and a sea of virtual entities. They are all part of a universal symphony which began playing at creation and will continue as long as we can imagine.

Lee