Twitter Break and Update

For months I have been trying to build a metaphysic 14o characters at a time.

How do we synthesize Platonic Forms, Quantum Science, Fractal Geometry, Complex Emergence, Actuarial Science, String Theory, Healthcare Reform, Econometrics, CAPM, Hilbert Space and Schrodinger Waves 140 characters at a time?

Go to twitter.com, philosophize and see.

I've succombed to twitter, and have been neglecting blogger. Go to twitter-philosophize for daily thoughts and I'll continue to blog soon.

The Story of Philosophy

The story of philosophy begins at creation flows through Plato and Kant and culminates in the quantum revolution. The story of science goes on, of course, but physics has transcended the Platonic Forms, Kantian Categories, Hegelian Spirit, Humean Skepticism, Cartesian Dualism, Roussean Romanticism and so on.



Of course Sartrean existence is still relevant as we have still not penetrated the human condition scientifically.



Philosophy of course could reorganzie to become relevant again, but only as a handmaiden. Someone has to work on the implications of multiple dimensions, entanglement, interconnected fields, probability waves, vibrating strings, symmetry and so on...and hypothesize metaphysical implications..but only based on what we know through math and science.



When we combine the mathematics of particle physics, complexity and economics we have a foundation for philosophy based on all we know. Such a philosophy can show the way to a better world.



Yes we can.



Lee

Matt Taibbi

It's refreshing when a reporter "gets it". In the current Rolling Stone, Taibbi portays the global financial crisis in the context of the AIG mess. He patiently dissects the complexities in an entertaining and educational way.

" A CDO (collateralized-debt obligation) is like a box full of diced-up assets...What the inventors of the CDO did is to divide up the box into groups...To get AAA ratings, the CDO's relied...on crazy mathematical formulas...

As banks and other investors of all kinds took on more and more in CDO's...they needed some way to hedge their massive bets..."

That's where AIG enters. They began selling Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) which insured the value of the CDO's. For a small premium relative to the potential risk, the CDS guarantees the insured asset.

The type of insured asset which became most prominent in the early 2000's was the mortgage. AIG guaranteed mortgages through their CDS's.

Because this activity had been essentially unregulated, AIG could sell an almost unlimited number of CDS's without any financial backup. As a result they exposed themselves to losses beyond the scope of their massive balance sheet.

Back to the mathematical models, it wan't supposed to happen. According to the models, CDO's and CDS's couldn't default at the rates they ultimately did. The models didn't take account of non-historical patterns, like a collapse of the U S housing market.

OOPS.

As Taibbi reports, the rest is history. AIG's debt rating fell requiring them to cough up assets as collateral at an alarming rate. Now the government is in the derivative business in an attempt to undo the mess.

Can we do it?

Yes we can.

Lee

The AIG Debacle

Rome is burning and our leaders are stumbling over each other about $150 million in bonuses. These are the same politicians who have quadrupled the federal deficit since 1980. Reagan and the two Bushes produced three times more deficit than all prior President's (yes going back to George Washington).

$150m million is 1/10% of $150 billion. Politicians no longer even read briefs on $150 billion in spending. Does anyone believe they really care about AIG's bonuses?

The $70 trillion question

What do you get when you have a $5 trillion spending agenda and a $65 trillion entitlement deficit?

The need for a very targeted stimulus. Basically, the $5 trillion has to revitalize the economy adequatey to pay off the $65 trillion entitlement deficit.

Oh, and maybe we should pay down some of the $10 trillion recently run up in Federal deficits. Then we can go to work on state and local unfunded debt.

Anyway it is clear the Stimulus has a lot of work to do. The models being used now to estimate impact have proven inadequate for decades. Only by incorporating advances from actuarial and complexity science will they have a chance of adequately targeting expentures to maximixze the multiplier effect over time.

Lee

Holistic Stimulus

It all should be done at once.

The idea of stimulus spending is to stimulate economic growth. Does anyone believe that will happen if we just dump money into exisitng systems which are failing?

That's why the President wisely wants to reform healthcare, education, lobbying, earmarks, and other dimensions of spending simultaneously with stimuli and bailouts.

When 5% of $ 1 trillion goes to "healthcare", it can have $0 effect, $50 billion effect, or $500 billion effect. It all depends on the microfoundations.

Similarly with infrastructure, energy, science and welfare. When we talk about $4 trillion in total spending, how it flows will make the difference between nirvana and doomsday. We could end up with a collapsed, unsustainable economy or a vibrant, sustainable one.

The choice is ours.

Are we willing to invest in models which will show how flows can best be directed to produce a sustainable economy?

Yes we are.

Lee

Transforming the Economy Sustainably

If we add $1 trillion to existing government spending, and allocate the existing spending in a way that stimulates, how much will the economy grow over time, and how sustainably?

While that is the question of the hour, all the kings horses and all the kings men have no answer.

That is tragic because the answer is blowin' in the wind.

Using complexity and actuarial science tools to supplement existing models, alternative ways of stimulating the economy could be tested before implementation. The ones most likely to succeed could be implemented and monitored and adjusted over time as needed.

That way, tables could be developed showing multiples of alternative allocations. One allocation might double GNP growth over five years while another might produce a 500% increase over three years.

Wouldn't it be refreshing to hear, "We have decided to add $1 trillion to existing spending for the purpose of transforming our tired economy. We have tested alternative approaches and decided on one which has a 95% chance of doubling GNP within three years. We will monitor the money and if it is not having the desired effect, will make adjustments.

We are confident this stimulus will transform our economy because we have tested it from the macro to the micro level. The money is targeted to industries and companies most likely to provide sustainable, transformative growth.

Our models are actuarially sound, demographically robust, temporally adjusted, interactively designed, and probability oriented. The money flow will be transparent and accounted for professionally."

Yes we can.

$787 billion

A billion here...

Now the details of the stimulus package are out. Will it work? Has it been tested?Does anyone know?

Complicated economic/mathematical models have been run. But aren't they the ones which got us here?

Do they account for black swans? tipping points? cascades? power laws? multifractals? fat tails?cluster correlations? phase transitions? interactions? demographics? uncertainties? time frames?

The fact is that there are data mining, agent based, actuarially sound, data visualization, econometric tools available by which to truly test and monitor any stimulus scenario developed. The anticipated impact on the global and US economies as well as the individual sectors and businesses could be forecast. The options most likely to have the sustainable, transformative effect desired could be chosen and monitored and adjusted as needed.

How much more confidence would be inspired if officials could testify..."We anticipate (based on the best data and analysis availble) that this stimulus package will have an impact on GNP of $500 billlion in the first year with a 92% probability it will be at least $400 billion...the multipliers associated with the chosen components of the package are the largest of all those tested..."

Here are the details of the ($787 b) stimulus package passed this weekend:

$506 billion in spending
-$141b healthcare
-$92 b infrastructure
-$87b education
-$67b welfare
-$41b energy
-$10b housing
-$6b science
-$7b security
-$55b other

$281 billion tax credits

This money could be targeted and monitored at the micro level to have maximum impact. For example, the science money could to where it would have a multiplier of 22 or 1.

From the labs of Los Alamos to the campuses of Boston, the tools needed to assure that the stimulus works have already been developed. All we need to do is integrate them with those currently being used.

Yes we can

Lee

The Info Mesa

Ed Regis' book shows how Santa Fe became the nerve center of a movement which is changing the world. He documents the rise of dozens of companies which came to apply new methodologies, complexity science, chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics, artificial life, and so on to real world problems.

He traces the movement from Los Alamos where computer technology had exploded to deal with the complexity of nuclear physics to the Santa Fe Institute where an interdiscipinary approach to scientific research blossomed. The Institute would, "...blur the edges, merge the disciplines into a unique synthesis that was greater than the sum of its parts...large portions of empirical reality had been reduced to data...atoms, molecules, chemicals, proteins, genes cells...the planet itself...".

Years earlier, Mitchell Waldrop had written of the dawn of the complexity movement. Neoclassical economics had reduced "...the rich complexity of the world into a narrow set of abstract principles...when philosophers saw the cosmos as a ...vast clockwork device...governed by the Invisible Hand...small events could have large consequences..."

If there was ever a time for interdisciplinary, rigorous, creative, quantum thinking it is now. World markets are collapsing and entire countries are on the brink of collapse. Stimulus packages are being passed with little or no underestanding of how they might work.

Using the perspective of complexity science, levened by actuarial science, policymakers can test alternative approaches against alternative scenarios and dynamically choose those most likely to succeed. They could answer questions like, "What is the likelihood that the stimulus will raise the standard of living 30% within 9 months, and 50% after 18 months?"

Wouldn't that create more confidence than the current mantra," No one knows what to do...or what will happen if we do do"

The future of the US and world economies may be at stake. We may only get one chance.

We must do it right.

Yes we can.

Lee

Beyond Economics

Kenneth Boulding wrote that economics like any science has a pure and empirical part. Economic models often throw light on the "...workings of the intolerable complex of social relationships...".

Max Weber wrote that the relationship between the protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism was palpable.

Milton Friedman wrote that while the relationship between economic and political freedom is complex, it is real.

Galbraith broke the bonds between Adam Smith and economic theory, bonds which were strained by Keynesianism.

Now we are faced with a global economic crisis of unknown dimensions. yet we are still using analytical tools and databases more suited to the conditions of Adam Smith's time than our own.

When we begin to recognize that the same methods which physicists have developed to probe the mysterious activity in the nucleus of the atom are available to probe the mysteries of the global economy, we will be on the road to sustainability.

Then we will begin to incorporate population levels and demographics, resource levels and placements, quality as well as quantity of consumption, capital as well as income, and mind as well as body.

When an Obama official testifies that a $ trillion will matter in the long term health of the nation's economy, we will listen because it will be backed up with detail on the flow of funds through the global economy and impacts on employment, welfare, and output. It will be shown to be actuarially sound, probabilistically tested, temporally developed, and layperson coherent (transparent).

We can make the world better, safer, cleaner and happier.

Yes we can.

Lee

The Worldly Philosophers

Economists are on the hotspot regarding getting us out of the global economic mess.

Unfortunately, the profession as a whole is as clueless as they have been in all the crises of the past few decades. They refuse to ignore the power laws, cascades, feedback loops, adaptivity, demographics, Black Swan, Tipping Point, phase transitions, symmetry breaking, uncertainty, temporality, interactivity, multifractal, cluster correlation nature of global finance and economics.

As a result, when anything happens which hasn't happened in the same way before, such as mortgage derivative collapse, international turmoil, terrorism, natural catastrophes and so on, their models miss it and we all suffer.

This is a tragedy because models exist which can handle unforseen events, cluster correlations, demographic shifts, interactions, uncertainty, missing data, and so on.

Physicists have teased out of subatomic behavior the deep patterns which drive physical reality . These patterns involve vibrating particles with wavelike characteristics, clouds of fields connecting the energy patterns, dimensions which explain probabilistic behavior and other activity which transcends human understanding.

Shouldn't they be part of the team charged with helping us jumpstart the global economy?

If you say well, how does subatomic activity impact the global economy?

That is where complexity science comes in.

But, you say, what about social security, healthcare, finance, insurance, and risk?

That is where actuarial science comes in.

We can build a stimulus package which will truly transform the economy in a sustainable way.

We can test and monitor the flows over time and make adjustments as needed.

Yes we can.

Lee

Saving the World-A $ trillion at a time

The reason there is so much confusion in Washington at the moment over how to stimulate the economy is that no one there knows. They don't know because they don't have the analytical apparatus by which to adeqautely gauge the impact of proposals on the economy

The analytical structures and databases, however do exist.

Below is a simplified version of what a stimulus budget being thrown around in Washington looks like:

Stimulus Stimulus
Component Budget *

Health $ 150000
Education 100000
Welfare 100000
Crime 10000
Infrastructure 70000
Energy 70000
Housing 30000
Transportation 50000
Tax Credits 300000
----------
880000
*$ 000,000

No serious attempt is made to estimate how each component and the total will flow through the economy in a demographically adjusted, probabilistically calculated, interaction robust, temporally realistic manner. To do that would require tools that are not being used.

Those tools do exist, however. Complexity scientists, actuaries, computer scientists, economists, and financial engineers have created data bases and analytical structures which can simulate how various options for economic stimulus will flow through the economy.

These scenarios can take account of interactions, uncertainties, demographic shifts, time frames, and other factors which ultimately impact of the way stimulus alternatives impact long term stability and growth. They can show how different alternatives will have different multipliers over time, and therefore greatly different impacts.

We can design a stimulus package which can be integrated with normal government budget activity to give a reasonably likely opportunity to transform the economy in a sustainable way.

We can show how that will happen and monitor the results so as to make adjustments as needed.
We can make it transparent with manageable accounting structures.

All we need to do is adapt methodology which is already out there.

We can do it

Yes we can.

Lee

The Geithner Performance

It's not his fault.

No one knows what to do.

At least no one in Washington.

The tragedy is that a bailout/stimulus/budget package can be developed and tested which would meet the critria everyone has-that it gets the economy moving. From the labs of Los Alamos and Chicago to the campuses of Ann Arbor and Boston, models have been developed which are up to the task of analyzing all the proposals which are now randomly floating around Washigton.

Actuaries, physicists, economists, and computer scientists have develped data and analytical fameworks which will allow any proposal to be tested properly before implementation. The models have the needed demographic, interactive, temporal and probabilistic dimensions.

What confidence it would give the American public if the President could lay out scenarios describing how alternative expenditures would flow through the US and global economies. Multipliers for each element and for the program as a whole would be provided.

Yes we can.

Lee

Markets and Fish and the Global Economy

We have been making the case that no amount of government spending/stimulus will have the desired effects on the global and US economies unless properly targeted. Proper targeting requires data and analytics which can reasonably test alternative scenarios. Such data and analytics are currently not part of the dialogue on the economic crisis.

It does, however, exist.

In the current issue of Scientific American, an article by Paul Raeburn demonstrates clearly one of the deep values of complexity science-interdiscipinary perspective.

Mathematicians, physical scientists, biologists, social scientists, artists, doctors, military leaders, and economists all see patterns which impact on all aspects of life.

In the case of Raeburn's article, fisheries are seen as complex systems with characteristics many of which are similar to those of chaotic financial markets. As we indicate is the case with financial markets, that they are no longer amenable to conventional analysis, so with fishing, which is "...like the stock market-the crash of one or two species or a hedge fund or mortgage bank, can trigger a collapse of the entire system."

The same issue of Scientific American has a column on the stimulus. It indicates what should be obvious, that certain expenditures like electrical infrastructure and sustainable energy, may have multipliers many times those of other types of expenditure.

Only a complexity based actuarial model can test the various scenarios probabilistically demographically, interactively, and temporally.

Yes we can.

Lee

The Secret of Being

Every once in awhile a book will come along which alters the course of history. This is one of those times.

Still untitled, the book is written. Metaphors like harmonius universe, cosmic song, unfinished symphony, paradigm shift, and web of reality speak to its message.

From Plato's Forms though Smith's Invisible Hand, from Bacon's Idols through Rousseau's General Will, all philosophical ideas of history flow into a vessel which empties into recently uncovered truths.

Idealism, Rationalism, Empiricism, Materialism, Mysticism, QCD, QED, QFT, particles, fields, waves, love, truth, beauty, harmony, eightfold way, golden rule, dfa, erm, all are elements of the new vision.

One dimension of the new paradigm is that there is a mathematical edifice which begins at the subatomic level, travels through the classical level, and emerges at the complex level. A mathematical structure may be conceived which will tie all of reality into a grand unified theory.

Another dimension is that all philosophical structures from the Platonic to the Hegelian, from the Kantian through the Sartrean, are a foundation for a metaphorical vision of the reality being uncovered at the subatomic level.

The fuzziness within the atom which is at the core of all being reflects the gaps in understanding which historical thinkers were trying to fill.

A third dimension of the new paradigm is that public policy decisions, including those involving the current stimulus/bailout proposals, can be informed by the deep thinking which is going on in the universities and labs around the world.

The interconnected, convoluted, demographic, heterogeneous, uncertain and temporal nature of the global economy calls for models which not only incorporate traditional econometric structures, but those of compexity science, computer science, and actuarial science as well.

The path to justice is paved with knowledge, and the knowledge needed to transform the economy in a successful and sustainable way can be brought to bear if there is the will.

Yes we can.

Lee

Cosmic Symphony

The world is a symphony of energy, playing out at the subatomic, human, social, and cosmic levels.

The fields, waves, particles, quarks, strings, electrons, photons, and dimensions which dance in and out of existence in the atom are like notes, tones, beats, rhythms, melodies and harmonies, all blending into an elegant and beautiful song called reality.

Jusy as we experience music on different planes of understanding, so it is with life. Our senses, minds, bodies and spirits all react to different aspects of reality in different ways.

Music resonates within the genetic structure of all life. Pitch may be encoded in our DNA.

We are all part of the orchestra of reality which plays from the subatomic to the cosmic level.

Music and mathematics are intimately related. Just as mathematics can tease out patterns of subatomic interaction, it can identify patterns of harmony.

The Music of the Spheres drives heaven and earth in a symphony of beauty, truth, justice, love and harmony.

All of art contributes to this cosmic song. Art and science give us visions of reality. Just as scientific theories emerge from the sweat of scientific research, aesthetic treasures emerge from the sweat of artistic exploration.

Language often fails both in the description and depiction of scientific and aesthetic truth. Metaphors are used to approach an understanding of the meaning of subatomic interaction and aesthetic result.

Philosophers have eternally struggled with distinctions of reality and appearance, subjective and objective, mind and body, particle and wave. Only with the advent of modern science and art can we see that all may be complementary, and at its core everything may be part of a cosmic holism.

In science we use terms like entanglement, symmetry, non locality, fuzzy and probability wave to approach an understanding of an interconnected, multi-dimensional subatomic world. Art uses words like abstract, surreal, absurd, and non-Euclidean to describe the frustration of attempting to reach an aesthetic vision of core reality.

Space, time, matter and energy are no longer the background against which reality plays, but integral parts of reality itself. Artists must revert back to their sense of childlike wonder to capture this new vision of reality.

We are all part of an interconnected web, interdependent and virtual. From Plato to Kant, Shakespeare to Sartre, philosophers have probed the mystery of reality which science is now unveiling.

Cosmic consciousness, web of nature, harmonious universe, song of the heavens, all ways of articulating the new vision.

What a wonderful world if we only let it be.

Lee

Obama's Economic Advisory Board

Today the President took the first step in de-Washingtoning the economic renewal process. He has a great inside team and now has a Board from outside the "echo chamber" to give more perspective.


What is still lacking, unfortunately, is an appropriate analytical framework by which to monitor the process.


All the ideas in the world will not bring about a transitioned economy without a realistic analytical structure by which to guide decisions, and technicians to develop and maintain the model.

That is the missing piece of the puzzle.

As we have discussed in earlier blogs, by ignoring advances in actuarial science, complexity science, data mining and computer processing, existing models make themselve useless in the world of black swans, cascades, power laws and multi-fractals and which we now face.

No amount of fidgeting will make the models work right. Only a concerted effort to integrate the innovations will succeed.

Model output is only useful if actuarially sound, interaction friendly, data robust, and computer scrubbed.

Let us join the team with our new analytics and help transform the economy successfully.

Lee

Harmonious Bibliography

Any book owes a large debt to all books which preceded it.

In my case, Harmonious Universe emerged from my immersion in:

Affluent Society by Galbraith
Silent Spring by Carson
Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Pirsig
Lila by Pirsig

The Story of Philosophy by Will Durant
The Dancing Wu-Li Masters by Zukav
The Tao of Physics by Capra
The Art of Mathematics by King

Chaos by Gleick
Complexity by Waldrop
Fire in the Mind by Johnson
Quantum Self by Zohar

Superforce by Davis
The Elegant Universe by Greene
How to Know God by Chopra
Shakespeare and the Common Understanding by Rabkin

Quantum Theory by Bohm
A Mathematical Bridge by Hewson
Tao of Chaos by Walter
Consilience by Wilson

Art & Physics by Shlain
Hyperspace by Kaku
The Self-Aware Universe by Goswami
The Philosophy of Physics by Torretti

The Quark and the Jaguar by Gell-Mann
At Home in the Universe by Kaufmann
Would be Worlds by Casti
Universals by Armstrong

The Theatre of the Absurd by Esslin
Free to Choose by Friedman
The Prophet by Gibran
Synchronicity by Peat

Complementarity by Plotnitsky
Metapatterns by Volk
Microfoundations by Weintraub
A First Course in String Theory by Zwiebach

Among others

Lee

Harmonious Modeling

Now we begin.

To build the new analytical framework needed to allow the Obama Administration to deliver on its promise of change, the following steps will be needed:

1. Empower the analytical team.

2. Develop team strategy.

3. Assemble the team.

4. Review existing models.

5. Survey new models.

6. Integrate models.

The goal is an efficient transition from the existing structure to one appropriate to the twenty first century. Any new structure will start with the existing economic/financial/public policy structure and integrate the needed actuarial, complexity and data structures.

Examples of output from the new model include:

Year
Scenario
Factor

Population
Resources
Infrastructure
Demographics
Health
Welfare
Defense
Medicare
Social Security
Debt Service
Transportation
Housing
Energy
Manufacturing
Financial
Education

GNP
NEW*

*Net Economic Welfare

It should be pretty obvious how such a model would transcend and improve upon existing ones. This model could test a wide variety of complex options, and even after an option is chosen it could monitor results and make adjustments as needed. It could test the actuarial soundness of results as well.

It could also test sustainability of results in terms of available resources and population levels.

It's time to get serious.

Yes we can.

Lee

Actuarial Model of the Economy

An actuarial model of the U.S. economy would be probabilistic, demographic, holistic, complex, and actuariall sound. It would incorporate Enterprise Risk Management, Dynamic Financial Analysis, General Linear Modeling, Econometrics, and Complexity Science.

Who cares?

Well, the global and U.S. economies are on their deathbeds, the environment is collapsing, we are running out of resources, and the demographics of upcoming generations is unsupportable by existing institutions.

Unless somebody in Washington realizes that the analytical tools being used to evaluate public policy initiatives are outdated, and prone to misdiagnosis, (how do you think we got here?) all the "geniuses" in the world (Summers, Geithner, Goolsby, Clinton, Kudlow, Welch, Bernacke, Volcker...) will fail.

Demonstrating a model which will supplement and transcend the impossibly complicated financial and economic models currently in use is not realistic on a blog.

The basic outline of such a model, however, can be attempted.

The modeling team will consist of physicists, mathematicians, economists, computer scientists, financial engineers and actuaries with a mix of management, technical, and public policy expertise.

Such a team does not currently exist as such.

The model input will be as much detail about the federal budget and national economy as is deemed feasible and useful. It will be enough data to see all the major interactions which occur as a result of government activity but not so much as to be analytically unworkable.

The analytics will be a mix of traditional econometric and financial models supplemented by advances in actuarial science, complexity science, data-mining and visualization, and computer processing which have thus far not been utilized in public policy modeling.

The output will be impact by area by time frame by uncertainty level of alternative government actions. For example, if $100 million of government largess is to be bestowed upon the "auto industry", the impact on all areas impacting and impacted by the auto sector will be shown under various scenarios.

If $100 billion is to be allocated to the "financial sector'" the various ways that the money can flow through the economy under various economic scenarios can be tested. That allocation can (to some degree) be targeted to have the desired impact on national welfare.

For more information, go to my website, paradigmactuaries.com.

Lee

The Obama Budget as an Agent Based Structure

The Obama Stimulus/Bailout Proposal is in trouble...for good reason...no one knows how it will work.

The tragedy is that there are analytical tools available which could tell us how various scenarios would play out. From the labs and universities of our country have emerged data mining, analytics, data visualization, computer processing and statistical models which can take the most complex issues and make them manageable.

The American and Global economies are complex systems. Their performance depends on complex interactions among a number of complex networks and webs.

Standard economic and financial models of the type still used in Washington have continually failed to address real world problems. The economic models, for all their apparant sophistication, still incorporate assumptions which have not been seriously updated for decades.

Financial models are largely based on the same Portfolio Theory structures which gave us Enron, Long Term Capital, and the recent global economic collapse over mortgage derivatives.

The reasons standard models don't work any more, if they ever did, is that they are not robust enough to respond to the real world. The real world is messy, uncertain, interconnected, and labyrinthine.

Traditional models postulate smooth patterns, rational behavior, and independent actions.

What the advanced models which exist in places like Los Alamos, Ann Arbor, Boston and Santa Fe do is to allow nature and the real world define itself. Using the latest data organization, analytical and visualization technology, they take raw data from the environment and let it sort itself into logical categories. They then adapt analytical structures to the patterns which emerge.

What his leads to is information for policy makers which is:

1. Holistic: All interconnections, emergences, cascades, fractal structures, and power laws are tested before conclusions are drawn.

2. Probabilistic: Various scenarios are run, and results are tabulated not just on an expected value basis, but with expected ranges of results by time frame.

3. Actuarially Sound: Demographics, credibility, homogeneity, risk and time value, are all incorporated into the model.

4. Emergent: When networks and webs result in projections where emergent structures transcend preliminary ones, those more robust projections are utilized.

As a result, the bailout and stimulus proposals can be blended with conventional government activity to produce scenarios by sector and in total. These scenarios will include probability ranges by time frame by sector.

Healthcare is a good example. In the U.S., healthcare is a complex web of patients, providers, corporations, government, employment, demographics, and administraton. Randomly injecting money into the systems will result in random welfare impact.


Only by following the money through the complex web of activity, and directing it at the micro level where possible is there a chance of having optimal impact on welfare, wellness, jobs, the deficit, and gdp.

Historical transformations in the eras of the automobile, computer, electronics, and so on have shown definite patterns. The need now is for a sustainable transition which is envoironmentally friendly and resource efficient.

Future blogs wll provide additonal material on models which respond to the landscape of the twenty first century.

Lee

The Mathematics of Chaos

Now that we've reviewed the math of particle physics and relativity, we can move on to the math of things we can touch, feel, see, hear and smell.

No, we aren't interested in Newtonian Mechanics at this point. We want to show how chaos theory is a bridge from "simple" systems like atoms to "complex" systems like humans, ecologies, and economies.

Just as patterns in the subatomic world give rise to the mathematics of particle physics, patterns in nature and the cosmos give rise to the mathmatics of complex systems.

A universality has been found in patterns beneath the surface of things like the human heart, weather, internet traffic, the human brain, nature's rhythms, and cosmic expansion.

There is a holism and universality not unlike that found in certain subatomic patterns in the world around us.

Historically, mathematicians and scientists have attemped to deal with the nonlinear patterns of complex systems using standard mathematical structures like transformed differential equations and probability theory. The problem is that complex systems involve patterns that ultimately don't cooperate with such standard approaches.

As was the case in quantum mechanics and relativity theory, a new way of thinking is needed if we are really going to make progress in understanding complex systems. The dramatic increase in computing power in recent years has provided opportunities for such new thinking.

State and phase space, perturbation, fractals, attractors, power laws, cascades, symmetries, topologies, multifractals, and phase transitions are examples of notions which have arisen in the search for patterns in complex systems. If the mathematics underlying those patterns happens to relate to the patterns uncovered in the subatomic world, a metaphysical and scientific revolution of unprecedented power will be unleashed.

A mathematics of reality which begins with the fuzzy patterns in the subatomic world and shows how those patterns, even in principle, can be followed up the chain of reality, could lead us to a picture of human and cosmic reality which is holistic, interconnected and transcendent.

Economic activity, political activity, social activity, intellectual activity and spiritual activity could all be viewed from the perspective of universal patterns emerging into structures of truth beauty and justice. Quite a leap in logic, perhaps, but better than most of the other possibilities.

We have discussed in other blogs, and will discuss in future blogs, how such deep perspective can help us deal with the problems of the day. As a highly complex system, the global economy cries out for holisitc analysis. The tools of complexity science and actuarial science are ready to be combined with those of relativity and quantum mechanics to form an analytical structure for public policy analysis in the twenty first century.

Are we up to the challenge?

Yes we are.

Lee

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

What if he's right?

In his book, John Perkins talks about the military industrial complex's impact on Third World countries.

"Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly paid professionals who cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars. They funnel money from the World Bank, USAID,...into the pockets of a few wealthy individuals who control the planet's natural resources."

Wow. If this beginning to the Preface has any basis in truth, the Obama Administration has issues that transcend those currently being discussed in the media.

In addition to considering the traditional networks in determining ways to allocate government resources in a way that optimizes human welfare, he has to look behind the curtain and see if the resources are really going to appropriate places.

Are the, "Few wealthy individuals who control the planet's natural resources" also receiving government bailouts...?

Do they run the banks, healthcare organizations, infrastructure contractors, and other organizations receiving government money?

Does it matter?

We know that the government needs new analytical tools to determine whether government programs accomplish their goals.

Using actuarial, complexity science, data mining and visualization, and other tools which are available but underutilized, the Administration can be sure its resources will be more likely to have the intended effect.

Can we build analytical tools which will allow us to be sure we are getting the most welfare impact possible from our programs? Can we predict Net Economic Welfare and Gross National Product scenarios which will provide for a reasonable standard of life for future generations?

Yes we can.

Lee

Glass Bead Game

Hesses's novel posits an imaginary world in which spiritual values emerge dynamically as a game with musical and mathematical elements is played. The rules of the game draw from the sciences and arts, and express interrelationships among all areas of knowledge. As a result, it encompasses all aspects of culture and can lead to a full understanding of reality.

That sounds remarkably close to the basic premise of Harmonious Universe where developments in particle physics become the structure of the game. The metaphors of particle physics, waves, particles, fields, dimensions, entanglement...create a vision of a transcendent world where the mysteries of life are resolved.

The deeper we penetrate the atom and its nucleus the more fuzzy the core of reality seems. Electrons which orbit the nucleus are not "things", but are more like clouds of virtual reality. The quarks which make up the protons and neutrons in the nucleus may be stringlike objects whose vibrations in dimensions beyond our own create the elements of our world.

These particles may not exist at all, except as part of a web of connections made manifest by fields of virtuality.

In The Music of the Spheres, Jamie James starts out with a "Great Theme", "Picture to yourself, if you can, a universe in which everything makes sense. A serene order presides over the earth around you, and the heavens above revolve in sublime harmony.

Everything you can hear and see and know is an aspect of the ultimate truth: the noble simplicity of a geometric theorem, the predictability of the movement of the heavenly bodies, the harmonious beauty of a well-proportioned fugue-all are reflections of the essential perfection of the universe."

James goes on to demonstrate, through a journey through Western thought, how a loss of transcendence in the Industrial Revolution and Romantic movement dulled our sense of wonder and awe at the sheer power of the universe.

Harmonious Universe puts the sense of wonder back into our souls. A physical universe of mystery and beauty evolves into a mental and spiritual universe of unlimited possibility.

A convergence is now occurring. In the late 18th century, a group of amazing intellects created a country which has been a beacon of hope for all peoples for centuries. In the 1960's, developments in the sciences, arts, and politics were pointing to a new age of truth beauty and justice.

In 2009 a new Administration entered Washington on a wave of hope that mirrors that in the sciences of finding deep truths.

We are beginning a process of transforming the American economy into one which will provide hope for centuries to come. We will need wisdom, courage, strength and integrity.

We can move our society forward in a way that assures that future generations will have the opportunities we have had.

Yes we can.

Lee

Obama's First Stumble

It had to happen.

It's kind of a relief.

Nobody's perfect.

The bailout/stimulus proposal which came out this week won't work!

It's not Barack's fault. He needs to rely on his advisers even as he occasionally transcends them.

It's really not their fault either. They don't know any better. No one told them that their failed models need updating.

But it'a too important to ignore. Between the Federal Budget and potential stimuli/bailouts, there are trillions of dollars at stake. More importantly, there is the opportunity to transform the economy into one that is sustainable and more just.

We are at the edge of a precipice that we created, and we only get one chance to step back and save the economy.

Does it make sense to continue to spend government money based on analysis which has proven to be wrong so many times?

Would it make sense to allocate a small portion of new government spending on the development of a new structure for public policy analysis which has proven itself many times?

The answers are obvious.

There is a team of the best minds in the fields of particle physics, complexity science, actuarial science, and computer science ready to be assembled. They can build a model with the best data mining, enterprise risk management, dynamic financial analysis, data visualization, demographic, probability, and management analytics available.

Such a model can supplement existing economic, financial and public policy models in determining where spending will have optimal effect, what the uncertainties are, how to make adjustments dynamically, how to handle interactions, and all the other factors existing models ignore or miss.

The best minds in Washington are doing their best, but is isn't good enough. Some of the programs proposed will have some positive impact, but no one knows how much, or whether more innovative approaches would have much more effect.

What if we find, that using the best analytics possible, the impact of bailout and stimulus activity can be increased 100 fold or more over the next decade?

Should we at least consider it?

The global economy is collapsing.

Social Security is effectively bankrupt.

The healthcare system is crumbling under its own weight.

The deficit is dangerous, particularly if forecasts of the future US economy are distorted.

None of these issues are adequately addressed in proposals made to date.

The Federal Budget, along with all bailout and stimulation activity is a complex system which impacts a web of other complex systems. Government spending impacts the healthcare system, the infrastructure system, the prison system, the retirement system, the welfare system, the education system, and a variey of other systems, not to mention foreign relations.

Each of these systems has subsystems like housing, transportation, energy, goods, services, environment, medicine, and so on.

No model in place in Washington can deal with the interconnections, demographics, uncertainties, management, and data requirements of such a complex network.

We can transform the economy successfully . We can evolve into a country with sustainable and just results.

We have the intellectual resources.

We have the technical resources.

Yes we do.

Lee

The Math of String Theory

If there is to be a "Theory of Everything" for the forces of nature, string theory at the moment seems to have a good chance of playing a major role. Everything that happens in the physical universe may be ultimately represented in a single, elegant equation.

The mathematics of string theory gives hope to the dream of a resolution of some of the problems in the current model of particle physics. By adding dimensions to the framework, string theory provides new avenues to mathematical consistency.

Of course, if some version of string theory holds , as was the case with quantum mechanics, our world view will have to be altered dramatically. In addition to matter and energy, space and time themselves will cease to have their commonsense characteristics.

On a conceptual level, string theory uses one dimensional strings rather than zero dimensional particles in developing the formulas. The way these strings "vibrate" determines what type of particle emerges, and ultimately, what kind of universe emerges.

Just as the strings of a piano have resonant frequencies, so do the vibrating strings of subatomic reality. Whereas the strings of musical instruments produce notes, string vibrations produce particles.

The forces of nature also emerge from string vibration patterns. As a result, all matter and forces known become notes on a universal string.

Particle properties are a manifestatinof resonant pattterns of string vibrations as well.

Stretching the metaphor, there is a school of thought that this framework can be brought to bear on the more complex systems which have emerged in our universe, including life and consciousness.

While chaos theory and complexity science show new laws come into play as system compexity increases, there is a belief that those new laws may ultimately be found to be consistent with the deeper mathematics of string theory.

It takes a while to digest even the conceptual, much less the mathematical, framework of string theory. If right, it posits a multidimensional labyrinth of interconnected structures mysteriously intertwined with our notions of space and time.

In conventional physics, events occur in four dimensions. They can be undersood in the context of four factors.

In quantum mechanics, the microscopic properties of space become dissimilar to the analogous properties in classical physics. The notion of a violent quantum foam versus the smooth surface of relativity causes and results in mathematical incompatiblity between the theories.

The standard model of particle physics posits a world of pointlike objects. String/Superstring Theory unveils a cosmos emerging from a microscopic landscape of strings whose vibrations emerge as symphony of reality.

Everything in the universe emerges from vibrating strings.

When strings and their vibrations are fundamental (rather than point particles), the incompatibility of microscopic spatial structures between relaivity and quantum physics vanishes.

Supersymmery is part of string theory. Fermions and bosons are paired, symmetric, in a supersymmetric universe, and the mathematics becomes more elegant as dimensions are added.

Fundamental properties of the universe depend on the number and structure of dimensions in which the fundamental strings vibrate.

In supersymmetry, Hamiltonians commute with supercharges and Lagrangians are transformed to produce mixed bosonic and fermionic fields. Dirac and Pauli matrices are utilized in the representation, and a supersymmetric Lagrangian emerges.

A particular class of six dimensional spaces known as Calabi-Yau spaces have the geometric struture required to meet the mathematical properties of the theory

The mathematics of string theory is important in its own right. Even if it is found that string theory doesn't fully describe our universe, the underlying mathematics has blazed new trails of understanding.

As Robert Pirsig said in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance,"...the stream of national consciousness moves faster now, and is broader, but it seems to run less deep...Some channel deepening is called for."

There are a number of cosmic and subatomic implications of the math of string theory. These will be explored throughout my blogs.

Like a Beethoven Symphony, or Mozart Concerto, our world is a labyrinth of elements which emerges in a much more beautiful form than could be predicted from an assemblage of the parts.

The solution of a wave equation can be written in terms of a superposition, a Fourier expansion. The symmetries of the Lagrangian, the energy momentum tensor, and the Hamiltonian which governs time evolution of the worldsheet are elements of the classical analysis of strings.

The quantum extension of classical theory involves covariant quantization and Virasoro constraints. At this point there are 26 space-time dimensions.

Conformal field theory is used in peturbative string theory. A conformal transformation maps a region of the complex plane onto a more workable space.

In T-duality, open strings with Neumann boundary conditions are transformed to those with Dirichlet boundaries.

Spacetime supersymmetry involves superfields, superspaces, Grassman coordinates, and Green- Schwarz formalism.

In conclusion, string theory develops a mathematical framework by which to model the essence of all subatomoic activity. It shows that at the deepest level, reality may be interconnected and multidimensional. This has profound philosophical implcations.

This concludes our blogs on the mathematics of subatomic interactions. (whew!)

The next blogs in Mathematical Universe will deal with the mathematics of larger systems, up to and including the global economic system.

Lee

The Math of Quantum Field Theory

This is the third in a series of blogs on the mathematics of reality.


It is not about the math! It is about getting a feeling for some of the words and methodologies underpinning the scientific advances of recent decades. It is those advances that have hailed the dawn of a new era of understanding.

We met many of the concepts that will be in this blog in the prior one on quantum mechanics. Quantum Field Theory is essentially just an extension of quantum mechanics.

In quantum mechanics we saw that mathematical operators function as observables. The Schrodinger wave equation gave the motion of a particle in one dimension and that structure can be extended to handle multiple particles.

No wave equation we have met so far, however, can be used in both relativity and quantum theory. Attempts to merge realtivity and quantum mechanics were attemped in the equations associated with the names of Klein-Gordon and Dirac, but it was the introduction of fields for wave equations that allowed the theory to truly advance.

The Dirac equation is like the Schrodinger with a modified Hamiltonian. Dirac fields satisfy the Klein-Gordon equation and relativistic relations among energy, mass and momentum.

Solutions to the Dirac equation can be found in momentum space using a Fourier expansion.

The Klein-Gordon equation emerges from a substitution of the quantum mechanical operators for energy and momentum into the Einstein special relativity energy, mass, and momentum relations. By viewing the equation in the context of a field rather than a particle, creation and annihilation operators are allowed to arise.

Lagrangians play a major role in all theories of mass and motion. A Lagrangian equation can be constructed by taking the difference between the kinetic and potential energies involved.

In classical mechanics, Lagrangians (Euler-Lagrange equations) are used in deriving equations of motion. In field theory they are used to derive field equations.

A Hamiltonian equation can be derived from the Lagrangian and momentum representations.

Symmetries leave the form of the Lagrangian and equations of motion invariant.

Path integrals allow for calculation of amplitudes of quantuim transitions. In classical mechanics, the path is deterministic. In quantum mechanics , there is no trajectory per se, only path integrals.

In classical physics, there were two components, objects and the fields which linked them. Quantum physics tells us that particles are mere manifestations of fields.

Like many findings in quantum physics, this has deep philosophical implications. At the core of reality is not a thing, but a connection. Everything is connected, and elements have no meaning in isolation.

In quantum theory, predictions involve calculating probability amplitudes. The S-Matrix is one of the tools used. Feynman Rules allow for fairly straightforward calculation of amplitude/probabilities. Feynman Diagrams show particle actions (scattering, decay...).

The mathematics of group theory formalizes symmetry structures. Unitary groups (U1) are important because unitary tansformations leave probabilities for transitions among states unaffected. Unitary operators commute with Hamiltonians.

SU(2) symmetries are important in electroweak interaction work, and SU(3) symmetries are important in strong force/quark study (QCD).

The standard model includes QED and QCD. Quantum Electrodynamics (QED) works with electromagnetic interactions. Electromagnetic forces arise from photon exchangeof electrons in an em field. Feynman Diagrams illustrate QED processes.

QED explains the behavior of charged particles in an em field within the framework of quantum theory. Chemistry rests on the behavior of the electrons surrounding the nucleus of the atom.

The number of particles which had been detected by physicists by the mid twentieth century was large, not unlike the number of elements which Mendeleev was able to classify for chemistry.

In the 1960's, Murray Gell-Mann and Israel Ne'eman were able to classify particles. into patterns based on qualities called charge, spin and strangeness.

Initially the particles were grouped into eight patterns, and the name given to the system was the Eightfold Way. Particles in the nucleus, neutrons and protons, were actually found to be made up of more fundamental entities called quarks.

After a good deal of mathematical gymnastics, involving symmetries, Yang-Mills equations, Abelian Theory, renormalization, and the Higgs Mechanism, we came up with Quantum Chromodynamuics(QCD).

In QED. gauge invariance (U1) involves a Lagrangian for the em field, a Dirac Lagrangian, and an interaction term.

The combination of QED and QCD gives rise to the standard model of physics which describes the entire particle world, the nature and interactions of fundamental particles. Remember that in particle physics, particles have wave as well as particle characteristics.

The three fundamental interactions (forces) in the standard model are electromagnetic (em), "weak", and "strong".

Each force is manifest in a "particle". For each interaction there is a field. The generators of the field come from the unitary group which describes the field symmetries.

Elementary particles develop mass in their interaction with a mathmatical formalism called a Higgs Field. While no such field has been found, it is needed for the math of the standard model to describe the fundamental entities in our universe and their interactions. It is often the case that mathematics predicts the existence of an element of reality before our experiments can detect it.

Adding gravity to the standard model has not been accomplished. Relativity and quantum mechanics are mathematically incompatible. String theory, which we will visit in the next blog, is one attempt to create a theory that encompasses all four forces.


In the next blog, on the mathematics of string theory, we will attempt to bring together the philosophical and mathematical implications of discoveries in particle physics.


Lee

The Math of Quantum Mechanics

As was the case with relativity theory, there is a structure to the mathematics of quantum mechanics.

A good starting point is the Schrodinger Wave Equation. A wavefunction gives information about the "state"of a particle. The Schrodinger equation describes particle behavior over time.

Because in particle physics the place and velocity of a particle cannot be simultaneously determined (due to the basic wave-particle duality of fundamental entities), it is the probability of finding particle in a particular space that is determined by the wave function.

Particles interact as waves, but arrive probabilistically as particles in space and time.

Another way of arriving at a picture of quantum processes is to arrange observables in a matrix.

Perhaps the most intriguing insight of quantum mechanics is that at the most fundmental level, reality is connected. This means the interactions, the events, the processes are what is real, not the entities.

This one insight responds to centuries of metaphysical speculation about the nature of reality. Combined with the ideas of entanglement and nonlocality, this takes us to a place where metaphysics and ethics may intersect.

Is it possible that being responsible for our environment and fellow citizens is hardwired into our nature? That when we diverge from this ideal we go against the grain of our being and cause injury to ourselves?

Admittedly this a lot to digest if you are not familiar with quantum physics. Basically what particle physicists have found is that at the most fundamental level, nature is neither mass nor energy, but a "combination" of both.

When we talk of quarks, electrons, strings, and other subatomic entities there is no mental picture possible. Only mathematical formalism which leads to abstract metaphors.

The names associated with the developments of quantum mechanics include Schrodinger, Heisenberg, Planck, Bohr, Dirac, deBroglie, Pauli, and Einstein.


They all developed significant parts of the theory and performed amazing mathematical wizardry in the process.

Schrodinger's wave function was accompanied by Heisenberg's matrix, Bohr's atom and deBroglie's duality. Heisenberg Uncertainty, Pauli Exclusion, Dirac's Sea, and Bohr's Complementarity were critical perspectives.

The fact that the extension of the wavelength described by the Fourier Transform cannot be made arbitrarily small is another way of viewing Heisenberg Uncertainty.

Uncertainty, probability, is built into the very structure of nature as we see it. Wave intensity is linked to probability and wavelength is linked to momentum. The very nature of particle position and movement is ethereal and fuzzy.

Before going too deeply into particle physics, it is instructive to visit aspects of classical mechanics.

We should consider how Newton's laws bleed into quantum mechanics.

Newton's Second Law of particle motion relates force, mass and acceleration. Classical particle dynamics rests on this law. The Euler-Lagrange Equation generalizes the law for particle motion. Hamilton's Principle provides for the simplification of the math of particle trajectory.

Hamiltonians and Lagrangians are key elements of the math structure of classical mechanics and they are key to quantum mechanics as well. They provide for robust evaluation of particle dynamics and field theory.

The Lagrangian determindes the amplitude of a particle's wave and therefore the probability of tha associated particle's existence.

Feynman diagrams allow us to visualize the results of particle interactions.

A system of n particles is described by 3n differential equations. Hamiltonians simplify multi-dimensional calculations.

Finding the probability that a particle is in a region of space involves integrating the wave function. The time indepenent Schrodinger equation has an eigenvalue form.

The Hamiltonian can be used to determine the possible results of the measurement of the energy of a wavefunction. The eigenvalues of the Hamiltonian are the energies of the system.

The trajectory of an electron is determined by position, speed, and force. Interactions between matter and light involve em fields and photons.

Operators are critical components of the math of quantum mechanics. Operators work on wavefunctions and assist in the measurement of values. Observable events, those involving position and momentum are represented by operators.

Eigenvalues of a matrix which represents an operator give measurement results. Eigenvalues of matrices representing Hamiltonians are possible energies of wavefunctions. Eigenvectors of a Hermitian matrix can be utilized in developing simlarity transformations.

A particle's motion can be represented in either position or momentum form. Fourier transforms relate these two forms. In quantum mechanics much of the activity occurs in mathematical spaces like Hilbert Space.

In state space, functions take the role of vectors. Spaces of any number of dimension are mathematically constructable.

For a vector space, the number of vectors in a basis gives the dimension. To make basis vectors orthonormal, the Gram -Schmidt procedure is employed.

Eigenvalues and Eigenfunctions of Hermitian Operators acting on functions of continuous variables provide additional imformation on particle behavior.

Wave mechanics can give a complete theory of events in the absense of relativity. Dirac equations allow for relativistic and field effects. Fourier analysis gives particles freedom by releasing confinements inposed by wave equations.

Studying atoms and molecules involves working in three dimensions.

Again, this all sounds a little abstract if we don't keep our eye on the prize...that all this math ultimately tells us what is going on deep in the heart of nature, ourselves, and in others. That knowledge can lead us to a deeper understanding of the mysteries of existence which have puzzled philosophers for millenia.

Lee

The Mathematics of Relativity

This blog is meant for readers with a modicum of interest in the mathemtics of reality.

While no mathematical background is necessary to enjoy this blog, mathematical interest is.

This particular blog will discuss the mathematics of relativity. Later blogs will discuss the mathematics of quantum mechanics, quantum field theory, string theory, complexity science, economics, finance and actuarial science.

Descriptions like that which follows can be found in many relativity publications. In this blog we will be following the formalism laid out in Relativity Demystified.


The mathematical structure of relativity is as straightforward as it is complex. Einstein's special and general theories of relativity change the way we think about our world. Many phenomena of common sense fall within the mathmatics of relativity.

The basic idea flows from a series of mathematical relationships. In 1865, physicist James Clerk Maxwell published his equations which posited that electromagnetic (em) waves exist, and move at the speed of light. Electromagnetic fields can be shown to satisfy wave equations using simple vector calculus.

This is important, because wave equations are used extensively in physics to model physical events. It is important in the context of relativity because it can be shown that em waves (light) always travel at the same speed. It is the constancy of the speed of light in all frames of reference which leads to many of the unique elements of relativity theory.

In Newtonian physics, distances and times are fixed. When it was discovered that waves don't need a medium in which to travel, a mathematical tool called a Lorentz Transformation was applied to explain the results.

Newton used two equations to describe gravity. The first describes the path of a particle through space. The second describes how mass acts as a source of gravity.

Einstein's equations have similar form. In general relativity, the energy-momentum tensor acts as a source of gravitation, and relates to the curvature of spacetime via the Einstein equation.

Symmetries lead to conservation laws. In relativity, Killing vectors can be used to tease out symmetries. The motions of particles and light waves in spacetime involves Lagrangian methods which we will deal with in the math of quantum mechanics blog.

In terms of these blogs, it is important to note that understanding the mathematics of relativity is not just an abstract exercise. Harmonious Universe posits that a metaphysics based on mathematics and science is at least a possibility.

From the mathematics of relativity, particle physics, chaos theory, complexity science and actuarial science, patterns can be seen which point to the possibility that all of reality can be understood at a deep level. The evolution of the universe itself is mathematiclly derivable.

These ideas can be followed without understanding the math, but understanding the math enhances the insights.

Getting back to the math of relativity, now that we have a basic framework, we can begin to build the mathematical structure. The study of relativity involves what most physics does, the analysis of events.

In physics, events occur in a framework. That framework usually involves space, time, matter, and energy. Elements of matter and energy interact in space and time and reality emerges from these interactions.

Galilean Transformations were used to study how phenomena appear to different observers in Newtonian Mechanics. In Relativity Theory, Lorentz Transformations apply.

Among the tools used in developing some of the key elements of Relativity theory are, vectors, tensors, metrics, and manifolds.

Vectors are simply symbols which represent magnitude and direction. Tensors map from vectors to the real numbers. Metrics describe three dimensional space. Manifolds are continuous spaces of points that can be curved globally, but locally are Euclidean.

Many tools of mathematics have as their primary role the simplification of calculation and analysis. Transformations often accomplish this quite directly.

One example is a gauge transformation which is quite prominent in quantum theory, and is used in relativity to tease out wave equations.

In relativity, much of the theory is nonlinear, but can be worked on using linear methods which are much more manageable.

Lie derivatives, Killing vectors, Riemann tensors, Ricci tensors, Cartan Equations, and Einstein's field equations are all in the relativity tool box.

The most famous equation of all, e=mc**2 came out of these elements

From relativity theory came a new vision of the world and a new way of living.

Einstein's relativity theories changed the landscape of the human enterprise. Combined with advances in particle physics, it changed metaphysics itself.

Lee

Organic Universe

The idea of deep ecology is intriguing.

It is especially intriguing if there is evidence that the cosmos is an organism in the sense that all its parts are working together.

Like the human body, if all the parts are in synch, the cosmos is operating at peak efficiency. If some parts are out of synche, optimality is compromised.

Like a perfectly symmetric universe, a perfectly organic universe might not be as interesting as the one we inhabit. There may be a middle ground, however, where there can be optimal happiness while diversity and mystery continue to abound.

When we talk about our part of the cosmos, the earth, the discussion becomes more immediate. On the planet there are a number of ecosystems which support the quality and nature of our existence. The atoms which make us up are the same as those which make up every other element of he universe. They also may be entangled with every other atom.

The rocks, trees, animals and lakes resonate in some sense to the same rhythms as our bodies.

To the extent we destroy any part of this web, we diminish some aspect of our being.

Balance, The Golden Mean, The Golden Rule, all notions to help us navigate in these tricky waters.

The time honored goals of beauty, justice and truth emerge from a truly integrated physical, mental, and spiritual being.

Lee

Dimensions of Science

This is my science blog, and it is a good time to put out some ideas which can be explored more deeply in the future.


In Fire in the Mind, George Johnson explores the search for order as reflected in scientific and religious speculation. He compares and contrasts views of the scientific and spiritual communities, particularly in the area around Santa Fe, New Mexico.


The way we carve up the world determines how we perceive it. Physicists see quarks, electons, waves, fields, symmetries and fractals as part of the scaffolding on which our experienes are based. The more we try to contain reality within our perceptual structures however, the more it resists.


Like the scientists who labor in the New Mexico laboratories and look for clues about the existence of everything, so the Tewa labor and wonder. The Tewa "...have woven a tight web of concepts..." into a worldview as well.


We are all trying to make sense of a world which began in mystery and which is connected in ways we cannot yet grasp.


What the scientists in New Mexico and other places have found is that there are patterns which are common to simple and complex systems as well. This gives credence to the notion that there is an overall web of harmony in which all reality is embedded.

Since mathematics is the best tool we have for discerning these patterns, and since mathematics, even aided by advanced computer science, is very crude way of uncovering patterns of systems more complex than the atom, there has been uneven progress in the quest for an overall understanding of reality.

Can Schrodinger Waves be extended to apply to superatomic phenomena?

Can Heisenberg Matrices make the output of experiments on complex systems meaningful?

Can the universality buried in fractal structures explain social phenomena?

Is there a Dirac Sea from which social and economic phenomena emerge?

Certainly worthy questions at least.

In The Quark and the Jaguar, Nobel Prize winning scientist Murray Gell-Mann, gives us a glimpse of his ideas which build from subatomic structures like quarks to complex systems like jaguars.

Gell-Mann is the man who made sense of the "particle zoo" which had been vexing particle physicists in the mid twentieth century. He was also one of the founders of the complexity science movement in the 1980's.

Complexity science is a term which has come to be associated with a movement which brought together thinkers from all areas of thought to probe deep questions. In the process they found commonalities among what were thought to be distinct disciplines.

Economics had uncovered patterns which were also apparant in physics. Biology overlapped with chemistry and physics. Sociological patterns bore resemblance to physical patterns. Patterns of aesthetics often mirrored those of nature.

If we can build a metaphysics which can encompass all phenomena, not just physical phenomena, we will be on the path to a level of understanding which could lead to world harmony.

The tools are emerging.

We are ready to interpret their findings

Lee

Silent Spring

"There was once a town in the heart of America where all life seemed to live in harmony with its surroundings."

So began one of the most influential books in the history of our nation.

When Rachel Carson wrote Silent Spring, few Americans were aware of what has since become known as the environmental crisis. For the first time Americans were informed that economic activity can have consequences which are not foreseen in economic calculations.

A few years earlier, John Kenneth Galbraith had raised the alarm in a slightly different way in his book, Affluent Society.

"The shortcomings of economics are not original error, but uncorrected obsolescence."

Galbraith decried the lack of value put on "public goods" for which there may not be effective markets at a point in time, but which are essential to society's meaningful survival.

Charles Reich took up the mantle a decade later with The Greening of America.

"There is a revolution coming. It will not be like revolutions of the past. It will originate with the individual..."

These words are eerily apt today. A revolution began anew on January 20, 2009 and its echoes will be felt for generations.

In his last campaign, Bobby Kennedy said, "Too much and too long we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things...Our Gross National Product...counts air pollution,...the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder..."

"Yet the Gross Natoinal Product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play......the beauty of our poetry...neither our wit nor our courage..."

The common thread in all this musing is that traditional economic thinking accounts for only a part of the nation's quality of life. Yet our economic and financial models still ignore anything considered unmeasureable.

Are we ready for a real economic transformation?

Are we ready for a sustainable economy?

Are we ready for govenment spending, bailouts, stilmuli, and regulatory activity which increases the long term welfare of our citizens?

Are we ready to use the best minds and technologies to solve our problems?

Can we do it?

Yes we can.

Lee

The Metaphysics of Harmony

As our official philosophy blog, Actuarial Universe will explore issues of ultimate reality.

There are many ways to approach ultimate reality. Many of them may be right. Some converge upon unity as the ultimate "value."

What is striking about the unity perspectives is that science and mathematics now lend support to that idea.

From Plato to Kant, Shakespeare to Locke, the idea that ultimately all is one prevails.

Now, the deepest calculations and consternations of scientists and mathematicians go there.

The Standard Model of Particle Physics gives the entities and interactions which define reality at the subatomic level. The particles and waves are virtual and probabilistic. They exist in a web of connections, called fields, and appear to be entangled.

They may emerge from dimensions beyond those our intellects and senses can perceive. When the clouds of energy within the nucleus "interact" with the electron clouds surrounding it, atoms emerge.

When the electrons of these atoms "interact "with those of other atoms, molecules emerge.

From molecules emerge the objects of chemistry and biology.

As we move up the ladder of complexity, the original elements become part of a framework which doesn't seem to reflect their origins. Only recently have scientists begun to uncover connections among complex objects which have patterns similar to those at the subatomic level.

Words like chaos, fractal, and self-organization begin to emerge from this haze of super-atomic reality.

The fact is that there is now a metaphysical scenario, supported by a partial mathematical structure, which portrays a universe in which everything is connected.

From the Big Bang to eternity, there is an underlying symmetry which connects everything at creation. The symmetry at Creation was perfect. It broke as the world cooled and structures which eventually emerged into us emerged. At the core of everything however is the primordial connection.

There are many ways to slice ultimate reality. One is the way that education has been divided. Philosophy, science, art, politics, history, economics, all part of a tapestry of human understanding.

From a scientific point of view, reality is the things we see and feel and their constituents. Nature, humanity, society, the cosmos, all part of a tapestry which scientists explore.

Reality can also be looked at as the sum of human intellectual activity. Plato's Forms, Kant's Categories, Shakespeare's Complementarities, Smith's Invisible Hand, Rousseau's General Will, Pirsig's Quality, Heisenberg's Uncertainty, Dirac's Sea, Schrodinger's Wave, Mandelbrot's Fractals, Mozart's Harmonies, a mosaic of truth and beauty.

Another perspective on ultimate reality is as the envelope of realms. There is a cosmic realm, a philosophical realm, a complex realm, an economic realm, a chaotic realm, a classical realm, a subatomic realm, a human realm, all creating a vision for our minds and bodies to experience.

Stay tuned.

Lee

Morning has Broken

"Nineteen Sixty-Eight had the vibrations of an earthquake about it. America shuddered.History cracked open..."

So began Time magazine's exploration of the last year of hope before now in America and the world.

American history has endured many tragedies and triumphs. Among the latter are the forming of the union, the wisdom of the Founding Fathers, Abraham, Martin, John, and Bobby, and now Barack and Michelle.

In 2009, we are on the edge of a knife. On one side is the end of the American dream. On the other, a transformed society positioned to continue the journey begun in 1776.

For 40 years we have wandered in the wilderness. Bogged down by senseless wars, erratic goverment policy, fiscal irresponsibility, hypocrisy and ignorance, we have landed on the edge of a cliff.

We can back away. We can find a way to expand the economy in a sustainable way.

The Obama team has identified the core problems and is poised to fix them. They are also faced with intransigence, diminished resources, and vast debt.

To walk through the minefield on the other side of which is a new America will require the best minds and resources. America has them, but they have been hidden for decades.

Complexity and Actuarial Science, Quantum Mechanics, and Economics provide tools by which to direct government activity into the areas which will avoid the mines and expand the economy in a sustainable way.

We need an economy which will support our promises to those who are in poverty through no fault of their own, to the sick, to the retired, and to others in need.

We need an economy which provides opportunity to all who are able to work, and which is sustainable.

We need a society with liberty and justice for all.

Yesterday's Inauguration was the first step in the journey. Just as Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln found the path from despair to hope, so can Barack.

He has asked for our help. Can we respond?

Yes we can.

Lee

Paradigm Actuaries and The Secret

The Secret is that the truth is not as elusive as we thought.

In a world of poverty, suspicion, ignorance, hypocrisy and irony, the deeper reality is that we are closer to an understanding of true being than ever.

Physicists "looking" into the nucleus of the atom have discovered that the fundamental "thing", the core of everything is an interconnected web of virtual energy.

The atoms which make up all nature, from trees and oceans to rocks and people, are part of a larger tapestry, a tapestry which eludes our instruments and intellects.

Plato, of course, sensed this in his Forms, as did Kant in his Categories and Hegel in his Spirit. Pirsig sensed it in his Quality as did Martin in his dream.

The difference is that, until now, there was no solid mathematical and scientific foundation for a worldview which embraces unity and harmony.

The metaphors of particle physics and complexity science, the waves, quarks, fields, spaces, groups, uncertainty, complementarity, exclusion, entanglement, fractals, emergence, symmetries, topologies, dimensions...all elicit a sense of connectedness, transcendence, holism...

This holism is the basis for a new metaphysics grounded in the mathematics which propels the metaphors.

Philosophy, science, politics, economics, art, and proper public policy all emerge from the idea that, at its core, reality is connected and transcendent. This idea makes all prior metaphysical speculation coherent.

It also gives us a path to a brighter future.

Yes we can.

Lee

Hunter, Matt & Lee

In the current issue of Rolling Stone, Matt Taibbi says to a clueless "W " who doesn't understand why people don't appreciate his service...

"OK, here it is.You're the child of two emotionally abscent aristocrats who denied you any kind of love and affection..



You grew up resentful and lacking completely in any natural gifts or curiosity...You were aided in (this) quest by a bunch of narrow-minded lackeys...who...manipulated your obvious Oedipal resentments...



...you're about to spend the rest of eternity pondering your now-official legacy as the worst and most pigheaded leader in the history of Western democracy, a man who almost single-handedly sank the mightiest nation on earth by turning the Presidency into a $50 trillion therapy session that ended in two disastrous wars, a financial crisis...and a legacy of corruption on a scale not seen since the Borgias..."


Of course, Matt is gentle when put beside Hunter Thompson who, in Generation of Swine said about poppa Bush..."It is difficult for an ordinary voter to come to grips with the notion that a truly evil man, a truthless monster with the brains of a king rat and the soul of a cockroach, is about to be sworn in as President of the United States..."


Now, since the point of my blogs is that there is hope in America to restore the dream of our Founding Fathers, I don't want to dwell too much on the dark side.


In a world of Platonic Forms, dancing waves of inter-connected energy, and fields of harmonic resonance, there is much about which to be hopeful.

A true leader is to be sworn in tomorrow. He will be in a position to transform the country not just economically but spiritually. The values of life, liberty and true happiness can be combined with courage, integrity, compassion, truth, justice, beauty and wisdom to create a tapestry of hope not seen since 1968.

The American spirit as manifest in the lives of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Martin, Bobby and now Barack has never been more healthy. We can overcome the obstacles which have arisen in recent years.

Yes we can.

Lee

The Obama Economic Plan-An Agent Based Model

Our new President will be sworn in Tuesday.

His first priority will be to "fix the economy".

Unless someone in his circle knows about agent based modeling and other complexity science and actuarial tools, he will fail.

The current plan appears to consist of the following as the next "phase" of the "stimulus/bailout":

$550 billion for infrastructure, science, energy, and education programs over two years.
$275 billion in tax cuts for businesses and consumers.

Sounds good.

But has anyone done a cost-benefit analysis of how this spending in conjunction with the other $2.8 trillion in government spending will transition us toward a sustainable future of fiscal wealth and harmony?

We want it to be easy. Just pick out a few programs and, boom, economic nirvana.

Not.

We've tried that.

Now we are $60 trillion in the hole (Don't forget Social Security, Medicare, Veterans benefits...), are adding about a $ Trillion a year, and GNP is tottering as global resources decline.

If some measure of GNP doesn't start to grow dramatically, game over.

Happily, there is hope. In the labs of Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Batavia, Champaign, Ann Arbor...models have been developed which can definitively show how expenditures can ripple through a global economy and which can test alternative approaches.

We can use these models to find stimulus and bailout programs which could actually create an engine of economic growth for the U.S.

These models didn't exist in the 1930's, so trial and error had to happen in the real economy. We can now simulate the economy and test various scenarios. That way we can have a sense of long term welfare effects of whatever expenditures are deemed worthy.

Isn't it worth the effort?

The alternative is to keep randomly throwing money at a system which has proven itself incapable of meaningful transition.

Our production systems, housing systems, transportation systems, healthcare systems, financial systems, education systems, welfare systems...are all interconnected.

All must be transformed simultaneously for real change to occur and real welfare to be increased

Are we up to the task?

Yes we are.

For more go to paradigmactuaries.com

Lee

Putting People First

Putting People First (PPF) was the "plan" Bill Clinton and Al Gore published in 1992 to "...fight for what Americans deserve".

How'd that work out?

Since we have been kind of hard on the man who succeeded Clinton, it behooves us to look at how Bubba did. After all, by 2000 the American public was so disgusted with Billary that they elected a total moron to lead the free world.

The plan (PPF) involved "...good jobs, world class education, quality healthcare, and safe streets and neighborhoods."

"Our national strategy will reward the people who work hard and play by the rules. "

WOOPS!

"Increase corporate average fuel economy standards from the current 27.5 mpg to 40...45..."

TRIPLE WOOPS!

What happened?

Within days of entering the Oval Office, Bubba was being coopted by the Republicans. He started making deals with the devil immediately, and after the blue dress incident totally rolled over.

Now except for Ken Starr and a few other voyeurs, nobody really cared what Billy did in his spare time. God knows that to the extent Republicans have sex at all it is weird sex.

Unfortunately, Bill's propensity to deny his otherwise normal sex drive made it impossible for him to govern once he was outed.

In fairness, notwithstanding his moral cowardice Bubba did make government work better than had daddy Bush.

And in retrospect, it was heaven compared to "W".

But should that be our standard?

Kinda reminds me of Gary Hart's 1983 campaign book, A New Democracy, where he begins,

"America's character is being tested..."

How'd that work out?

Now compared to Newt Gingrich's cancer deathbed present to his first wife (that he wanted to leave her for his second wife who he later dumped for another...) the Democrataic pecadillos are hardly worthy of mention. Unfortunately, the way Dems handle getting caught condemns them to eternal fury from hypocritical, self-righteous Republicans who periodically emerge from the closet to condemn others.

This all sounds a little negative.

Well guess what?

In a few days we will have a President who seems to have character, intellect, integrity, wisdom, and a bunch of other good traits. And we shouldn't care what he does in private as long as he moves the planet toward peace and harmony.

Yes we can.

Lee

George & Laura (G&L)

The Bush's are a gift that keep on giving. From Sr. & Babs to Jeb & George, nothing but wisdom and sacrifice.

G&L's going away present is to let us know how lucky we are that they have led us for the last 8 years. Notwithstanding the destruction of the world and U.S. economies and ecologies, the grinding up of the American war machine, hundreds of thousands of dead and disabled world citizens and soldiers sacrificed to a phony cause, the end of America's leadership in the world, budget deficits that will haunt all future Americans, and a general malaise caused by a decade of hypocrisy, they are going back to Texas proud of their legacy.

If we've learned anything from this disaster of a Presidency, hopefully it is never again to elect a President who neither reads or writes. A President with no values and no understanding will never be able to rise to the level of vision needed to deal with the problems faced by the occupant of the office (can you say Palin?).

This year we had a choice, and we made it. Our new President has wisdom, humility, integrity, and the courage of real convictions. He reads and writes and thinks before acting. Like Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King, he believes in justice and pursues the truth.

If there's anything to be grateful for in America today it is that the long nightmare of Republican rule is at least temporarily ended. If the Democrats can resist the temptation to become their usual dopey selves, we may have a chance for a few years of governmental sanity. That could actually put us back on the path to harmony.

Lee

Quantum Universe

The notion of a quantum universe brings into metaphysics the metaphors of quantum mechanics. This means that the fields, waves, quarks, dimensions, electrons, uncertainties, entanglement, complementarity, and spaces which pop out of the mathematics of particle physics can be put in a philosophical framework.

This is important, and largely unreported. The fact that Plato's Forms, Aristotle's Chain, Kant's Categories, Bacon's Idols, Hegel's Spirit, Shakespeare's Complementarity, Rousseaus's General Will, Smith's Invisible Hand, Newton's Mechanical Universe, Sartre's Existence, King's Dream, and Pirsig's quality can now be put into a mathematical and scientific framework allows us to transcend prior philosophical dead ends.

Much of the substance of recent findings in particle physics points to an interconnected, interdependent, unified world. The particles which become atoms which become molecules which become cells which become us are ethreal, probabilistic (in our three dimensions of space), fuzzy, connected clouds of virtuality.

As we move higher up the chain of understanding we find fractals, symmetries, emergence, and webs, which ultimately describe nature and humanity.

Plato couldn't have known of this structure. He didn't have the mathematical, scientific, technological and philosophical tools which have arisen in the last century. Neither did Newton, Kant, Nietzche or James.

All the musings about mind and body, permanence and change, universals and particulars, empiricism and rationalism, appearance and reality, idealism and materialism, classicism and romanitcism, chaos and order, skepticism and belief, and other dialectical pairs are transcended and superseded by the findings of modern particles physics.

Modern particle physics demonstrates with mathematical structure how reality emerges from its fundamental constituents. From that core evolves a whole new metaphysical structure which contains all prior structures.

The dualities of Quantum Mechanics transcend those of classical metapyhsics. Wave-Particle, Matter-Energy , and Space-Time all point to an ultimate reality which is connected, transcendent and holistic

When the mathematics of particle physics is combined with that of complexity and actuarial science, a full standard model of everything can emerge.

Lee

Actuarial Universe

This entry in each of my blogs will outline the blog structure.

The blogs are:

Name; Content; Address

Huffingtonpost; General; huffingtonposta.blogspot.com
Art of Hardball; Politics; slatea.blogspot.com
Quantum Universe; Science; rollingstonea.blogspot.com
Mathematical Universe; Math; paradigmactuaries.blogspot.com
Actuarial Universe; Philosophy; dailybeasta.blogspot.com

My website is paradigmactuaries.com

Lee

The New Structure of Mathematics

Our blogs will now become somewhat specialized.

Huffington Post will be a general site...Harmony.

This blog, Mathematical Universe, will deal with the underlying mathematics of Harmonious Universe...truth.

Quantum Universe will deal with the underlying science...beauty.

The Art of Hardball will deal with the underlying politics and economics...justice.

The new structure of mathematics will build up from the deep structures of pure and particle mathematics through the cobbled structures of economics, finance and actuarial science.

The unifying structures will be those of complexity science. At it s most basic level, complexity science is the application of the most advanced computer and analytical structures to the most advanced problems of society.

It is the structure which emerges when the best scientists apply their deepest wisdom to the deep problems they attack.

No one will have to go back to school to follow this blog. A major point of the new structure of mathematics is that it be coherent to a general audience.

That doesn't mean sacrificing analytical robustness. It merely means organizing and explaining the tools better.

The new structure itself naturally starts with pure mathmatics. This involves mathematical structures that don't necessarily relate to anything we observe.

It should be noted that much of what is originally considered pure mathematics is ultimately found to apply to real problems. Similarly, much applied math (ie. that being developed in string theory) is often found to be pure.

The first level of mathematics beyond pure math is that being used in particle physics. One doesn't have to be able to manipulate Lagrangians, Hamiltonians. Hermitians, Laguerre's, Legendre's, Fouriers, Path Integrals, Hilbert Spaces, Lie Groups, Topologies, or Tensors to know that Schrodinger Waves, Dirac Seas, Feynman Diagrams, Pauli Exclusions, Planck Lengths, Heisenberg Uncertainties, and Maxwell's Equations help us understand how fundamental particles waves and fields become atoms, molecules and us.

The mathematics of particle physics points us to the mathematics of chemistry which in turn points us to biology. Neurology and psychology are on the same trajectory . Now society itself is in view mathematically.

This is where complexity science really shines. Along with some of the structures of chaos theory (fractals, universality...), complexity science is cobbling together a mathematics of everything.

Skeptics will say that humanity and its institutions are too complicated to approach mathmatically. There is some wisdom in that skepticism if not taken to far.

Remember that if we don't use the best math, we will use an inferior one, like the math behind the models which have missed all the recent global meltdowns.

What we are saying is that complexity science gives us a conceptual framework by which to combine the best math and computer science being used in the labs and universities with that being used in business and government. By considering connections among econometric, actuarial and financial models with those of Quantum Mechanics, String Theory and Relativity we will find better ways of connecting mathematics and our realities.

That will put us in a better position to anticipate problems and resolve them so as to optimize human welfare.

Is that not a worthy goal?

The journey begins.

Lee